So our reign of mild, boring weather looks to come to an end in a big way
late this week and weekend.  Models are showing a large upper level cut-off
low swinging through the base of the trough that will move into the area on
Friday.  This negatively tilted trough will excite cyclogenesis near the
eastern seaboard on Friday and that surface low will track up the New
England coast, likely bombing out as it does so.  Latest 12z EURO and 12z
UKMET are both showing a major snowstorm for the Green Mountains,
Adirondacks, and White Mountains.  The American GFS model is not quite as
gung-ho but would still deliver copious amounts of upslope snow on Saturday,
especially across northern Vermont.

Needless to say, the 12z EURO is pure eye candy showing a 978mb low over ME
on Saturday...it drops 2"+ of QPF as snow across the northern Greens,
northern Whites, and NE Adirondacks.  Verbatim, its showing 30" of snow at
Mansfield and Jay Peak.  It even has BTV receiving 1" of rainfall on
Friday/Friday night before changing to snow with another 1" of QPF falling
as wind-whipped wet snow on Saturday.

BTV has jumped on-board this afternoon and they mention amounts of 10"+ for
the Greens in their area forecast discussion.  Here's the Public Hazardous
Weather Statement:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A LARGE SCALE STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION BY FRIDAY
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. WHILE IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO PREDICT THE EXACT TRACK OF STORM OR THE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY HEAVY...WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WHERE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

THOSE PLANNING HOLIDAY TRAVEL LATER THIS WEEK SHOULD BE AWARE
THAT WINTER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THEY ARE
ENCOURAGED TO STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS ON THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION...AND MAKE PLANS ACCORDINGLY.

I'll be making a post to the Famousinternetskiers blog to tomorrow with some
more information...but if some of the latest data is even remotely close to
correct we could go from rags to riches in a hurry this weekend.

-Scott

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