Update... As of 9pm, Lake Champlain lake effect snow is very weak. Radar shows a N- S band of light snow right along RT7 and immediately to the east of RT7. The lake fetch is not being optimalized by any means. A look at the BTV radar (CXX) wind profile aloft shows a flow still coming a little too much from the west. Winds need to swing just a few degrees further towards north in order to maximize the amount of time a parcel of air is over of the lake. As of now, doesn't look like any more than a localized 2" overnight with most areas only recieving a dusting unless the flow shifts ever so slightly to the north. Any accumulation looks to be right along the Chittenden/Addison county line right now just west of RT 7. -Scott On Mon, 12 Dec 2005 10:47:29 -0500, Scott Braaten <[log in to unmask]> wrote: >Tonight, if you've read BTV's AFDs they have been mentioning the potential >for some lake effect/lake enhanced snowfall. Per the workstation 5km ETA >it does appear like there could be some fluffy snowfall accumulations >between Burlington and Middlebury tonight as a lake band organizes. The >ETA has the wind flow at the surface staying northerly from here till >tomorrow morning but still flowing more westerly not too far off the >deck. It looks like by 9pm tonight the flow above the surface comes >around to a more northerly direction and the entire column has a >unidirectional flow across the longest stretch of the lake. The lake >temperature is currently listed as 40F at the ferry dock and surface >temperatures tonight will be in the teens and single digits flowing across >the lake. From the surface up to 850mb the temperature over the lake goes >from +3 or +4C to -20 or -22C. The inversion level is a little lower than >I would like to see at only 800mb instead of above the 700mb level but >upstream the airmass seems fairly deep so it should work and the >atmosphere appears sufficiently saturated high enough for convection and >snow growth. So tonight we should have deep, cold air flowing over the >warmer lake resulting in a moist low level layer right above the lake, as >this modified, moist air flows across the lake it'll encounter increased >friction with land...air travels faster over water than it does over land >due to frictional forces and this moist air gets piled up like a car pile >up on the highway. It has no where to go but up and convection forms >followed by snow growth. > >I'm thinking very localized 2-5" fluffy amounts right along the lakeshore >from Burlington down to Charlotte to Vergennes and Middlebury. As for the >skiing effects, these types of situations can favor Mad River Glen and >Sugarbush...as areas like Hinesburgh, Bristol, Starksboro, etc might be >slightly further east from best flow, the increased friction with the >western slopes of the Greens in Addison County should make up for it. >Think of the car pile up on the highway example. Moisture has no where to >go but up and even a little added lake moisture, with very high snow >ratios could lead to a 6-8" snowfall, especially at MRG. I'm not saying >it'll happen but don't be surprised if it does. I'll see how the evening >develops and let you know if the snow will materialize in that region as >we have quite the MRG contingent on this list. > >While this isn't very significant by any means and won't have a large >effect on ski conditions, I'm trying to learn more about this type of set >up and analyzing it. > > > >Next up is an interesting looking situation that could bring a widespread >moderate snowfall to the the north country on Thursday and Friday. A low >pressure system moving across the upper midwest is modeled to give birth >to a low down in the southeast that will then track northward towards New >England. I'm not sold that it'll be an all snow, significant snowstorm >event, as any time there is a midwest low involved, it seems as though >precipitation types can be a problem. However, current models indicate >the secondary low will be almost coming out of the Gulf of Mexico and >riding northward which is a great track for New England snowfall. I do >think the models are transfering the energy and allowing the eastern low >to take over a litle too quickly though, so we'll see. More on that as >the week progresses. > >-Scott > >- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - >SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. > >To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html >========================================================================= - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html