## FARMCOLLIE@LIST.UVM.EDU

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 Subject: ] CEA and farm collies/probability-question From: Lynn Smith <[log in to unmask]> Reply To: Farm Collie Breed Conservancy and Restoration <[log in to unmask]> Date: Fri, 1 Jul 2005 12:07:41 -0500 Content-Type: text/plain Parts/Attachments: text/plain (40 lines)
I think the question, should be if a dog is affected with CEA should it be
breed at all. Many dogs with this show no side effects and there is no way
of knowing if the dog has it without testing. If I knew my dog had CEA with
no sypmptoms I do not think I would be breeding that dog.
Lynn
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, July 01, 2005 8:29 AM
Subject: Re: [FARMCOLLIE] CEA and farm collies/probability

| Your right Rini- laws of chance and probability.
|
| Rini <[log in to unmask]> wrote:> that of the resulting pups, half of them will
be
| > carriers as well.
|
| This has been a good discussion, and I'm learning all the time (and
| could use to, says my teenager ).
| Actually, the incidence of a trait showing up in 50% of the pups works
| out if there are thousands of pups...most litters are smaller. With a
small
| sample size litter of 3 to10, the probability of a pup being a carrier is
a
| coin flip and not much effected by percentages. All could have it, or
maybe
| none have it. You can easily get five heads in a row with that coin...
|
| Rini
| "They say I have ADD but they just don't under... HEY, A CHICKEN!"
|
|
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