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December 2004, Week 1

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From:
Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Sat, 4 Dec 2004 06:50:04 -0500
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Expires:200412042246;;376467
FPUS51 KBTV 040900
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EST SAT DEC 4 2004


VTZ003-004-006-007-016-042246-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-ORLEANS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND...NEWPORT...RICHFORD...
ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE
400 AM EST SAT DEC 4 2004

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 30. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60
PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 60
PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 30. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 20. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.

$$




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IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
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FXUS61 KBTV 040858 AAB
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EST SAT DEC 4 2004

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...
AREA SAT PIC SHOWS CLDS DISSIPATING NICELY. WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER "CLIPPER" SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY MVG INTO THE GREAT LKS
REGION. LATEST MDL RUN HAS SLOWED THE APPROACH OF PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM DUE TO INFLUENCE OF RIDGE OF THE AREA. PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEM WILL ALLOW WINDS(TDY-EARLY EVENING) TO INCR
TO NEAR WINDY CONDITIONS IN N NY...AND BREEZY INTO THE CVLY. PRECIP
TDY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF -SW/-S...WITH MORE STEADY SNOW IN DACKS
AND ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER AREAS IN VT LATE TDY...AS LOW TRACKS
EAST THRU CENTRAL QUEBEC. WILL OPT TO INCR POPS IN DACKS TO OCNL AND
LIKELY ALONG THE BORDER AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWFALL WITH THIS "CLIPPER". WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR EXTREME NE
KINGDOM FOR EXITING WRAP-AROUND -SW FOR SYSTEM FOR THE MORNING HRS.

STRONG COLD HIGH PRESSURE MVS OVER REGION FOR SUN-SUN NGT. THINKING
MAV GUIDANCE GOING TOO LOW FOR TEMPS SUN NGT WITH CLD COVER AND
LIGHT WINDS...WITH CORE OF HIGH STAYING NORTH OF BORDER. SO WILL
BUMP UP TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

NEXT AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MVG OUT
OF PLAINS STATES ON MON. MDLS HAVE RIDGE SITTING OVER THE NORTHEAST
THAN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH WILL KEEP COLD AIR ENTRENCHED A BIT
LONGER AS FRNTAL PRECIP APPROACHES REGION. SHOULD START AS -S/-SW
FROM SW TO NE OVER CWA...BUT PROBLEM FOR MON NGT/EARLY TUES MORN
PERIOD.
&&

.LONG TERM (MON NGT-FRI)...
SFC HIGH MVS ENE MON INTO TUES ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVERNGT ON SURGE OF WARM
AIR...BUT WITH CWA BEING UNDER INFLUENCE OF COLD HIGH...THE CHANGE
OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR TUESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION OF MIXED PRECIP.
WARM AIR ALOFT MIXING WITH COLD SFC POOL ON THE ONSET WILL CREATE
WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN IN SOME AREAS. THIS IS
COVERED QUITE WELL FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT AND WILL NOT CHANGE. HAVE
UPPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR TUES -R. SFC LOW NOW TRACK OVER WESTERN NY
BUT KEEPING CWA IN WARM SECTOR TIL SYSTEM PASSES NORTH AND
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE CHANGES PRECIP TO A MIX -RW/-SW OR JUST ALL -SW
IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. REST OF EXTENDED LOOKS GD ATTM AND WILL NOT
CHANGE.
&&

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. LOW CLOUDS COVERING THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN
OBSCURED AND MVFR CEILINGS AND SOME LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECTING
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE IN THESE AREAS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS
ALOFT OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER 12Z. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 100 UNTIL 21Z WHEN CEILINGS LOWER TO 070-090.
EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS TO BE GUSTING AT OR ABOVE 25 KTS AFTER 21Z
FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY FROM 00Z TO 06Z
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...WGH







FXUS61 KBTV 040321 AAB
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1021 PM EST FRI DEC 3 2004

.SHORT TERM...
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAVE HELPED STABILIZE DEEP DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES THAT HELP ENHANCE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BELOW 850 MB TO HELP KEEP
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.  AFTER THAT...DRIER AIR UPSTREAM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA.  HAVE ADJUSTED MORNING PORTION OF SATURDAY FORECAST
TO INDICATE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS NOTHING BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS
UP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE MOMENT.  BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
THEN ACROSS VERMONT SATURDAY NIGHT.  GOING FORECAST HAS THIS IDEA
COVERED WELL AND SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT ON.

EVENSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION FROM 515 PM...
.SHORT TERM...
HAVE ADDED A THROUGH THIS EVENING PERIOD TO THE FORECAST AS AREAS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.  STEEP LAPSE RATES EXIST OVER THE
AREA AND WITH DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES EXTENDING TO AROUND 500
MB...CONVECTIVE ELEMENT EXISTS TO THE PRECIPITATION.  THUS HAVE
MENTIONED ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH AS THE ACTIVITY
SPREADS EASTWARD.  NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

EVENSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION FROM 400 PM...
.SHORT TERM (TONITE THRU SUN NITE)...
WEAKENING LOW CENTER MOVG EAST ACRS VT THIS PM WITH SECOND LOW OFF
NEW ENG CST. RADAR STILL INDICATING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW...WHICH
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THRU THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC
POPS TILL ABOUT MIDNITE...THEN DRY WITH PARTIAL CLRNG AS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BLDS EAST FROM GRTLKS. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO MAV TEMP
GUIDANCE FOR TONITE. WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON
GROUND...ANY CLRNG OVRNGHT WILL ALLOW MERCURY TO FALL TO OR EVEN
BELOW MAV TEMP GUIDANCE.

DURING SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF FA EARLY IN DAY...WHILE
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GRTLKS HEADS EAST ACRS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC.
THE RESULT WILL BE A BRISK SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACRS FA DURING THE
DAY...WITH WINDS INCRG TO 15 TO 30 MPH...EXCEPT LIGHTER WINDS EAST
OF THE GREEN MTNS. EXPECT AN INCR IN CLDS AFTER SOME MORNING SUN.
MSTR LIMITED IN THE WAA PATTERN...WITH BEST FORCING WELL NORTH OF
THE BORDER. HAVE INCLUDED CHC SNOW SHWRS FOR PM OVER NRN
ZONES...ESPECIALLY NRN NY.

CDFNT MOVES THRU FA SAT NITE ACPYD BY CHC SNOW SHWRS. BEST CHC WILL
BE ACRS ADRNDKS AHEAD OF FROPA...WHERE FAVORABLE FLOW OFF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN ADDED MSTR AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUM.

DURING SUNDAY...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AS FRONT DEPRESSES SOUTH AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO FA. WE WILL BE UNDER CAA ALL
DAY...SO MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED EARLY. TEMPS IN MUCH OF
REGION WILL BE STEADY OPR EVEN FALLING A BIT. COLD HIGH DOMINATES
FOR SUN NITE INTO EARLY MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EARLY PORTIONS OF EXTENDED FCST
PERIOD WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN EVOLVING SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN.
LATEST 12Z OPERATIONAL SOLNS HAVE NOW STRONGLY DIVERGED FROM THE
MILDER EARLY WEEK PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN OFFERED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...NOW BREAKING OFF A CHUNK A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA AND DROPPING IT SE ACROSS AREA. BOTH ETA
AND GFS NOW SHOW THIS COLDER...ALBEIT SHALLOW AIRMASS QUITE WELL IN
THE RESPECTIVE 1000-850 HPA THICKNESS PROFILES. AIRMASS WILL OF
COURSE MODERATE CONSIDERABLY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD. NONETHELESS
IT WILL BE STUBBORN TO SCOUR OUT AS WAA AND ASSOC MOISTURE/PRECIP
ENCROACH ON AREA BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS TIMING
AND AMOUNT OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP THAT PUSHES INTO AREA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. ETA KEEPS PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH WITH STRONG BLOCKING AND
DRYNORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS AREA...WHEREAS GFS OVERRIDES ENTIRE AREA
WITH CONSIDERABLE QPF DURING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NT TIME FRAME.
AT THIS TIME RANGE...WILL GO WITH IDEA OF A SNOW TO RAIN EVENT
MONDAY/MON NITE...THEN CHC SHRA TUE...THOUGH POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
AN ENTIRELY DRY FCST FOR MONDAY...OR ONE WHICH WOULD OFFER COLDER
TEMPS...AND MORE P-TYPE CONCERNS AREA-WIDE.

AFTERWARDS MAINLY PC/PS AND DRY WED INTO WED NT. WILL THEN OFFER A
LOW CHC FOR -SN OR -SHSN FOR THU NT INTO FRI AS NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM DROPS SE ACROSS AREA.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
PRIMARILY IFR/MVFR CONDS THROUGH 00Z AS LINGERING -SHSN/BR SLOWLY
WANE ACROSS AREA UNDER LT WIND REGIME. MEAN COLUMNAR MOISTURE
PROFILES THIN CONSIDERABLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME BREAKS TOWARDS
MORNING...ESP VALLEY LOCALES. LIGHT FLOW BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY OR
SOUTHERLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...THEN GRADIENT TIGHTENS CONSIDERABLY
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 10-20KT RANGE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

RJS/JMG






FXUS61 KBTV 032216 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
515 PM EST FRI DEC 3 2004

.SHORT TERM...
HAVE ADDED A THROUGH THIS EVENING PERIOD TO THE FORECAST AS AREAS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.  STEEP LAPSE RATES EXIST OVER THE
AREA AND WITH DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES EXTENDING TO AROUND 500
MB...CONVECTIVE ELEMENT EXISTS TO THE PRECIPITATION.  THUS HAVE
MENTIONED ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH AS THE ACTIVITY
SPREADS EASTWARD.  NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

EVENSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION FROM 400 PM...
.SHORT TERM (TONITE THRU SUN NITE)...
WEAKENING LOW CENTER MOVG EAST ACRS VT THIS PM WITH SECOND LOW OFF
NEW ENG CST. RADAR STILL INDICATING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW...WHICH
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THRU THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC
POPS TILL ABOUT MIDNITE...THEN DRY WITH PARTIAL CLRNG AS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BLDS EAST FROM GRTLKS. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO MAV TEMP
GUIDANCE FOR TONITE. WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON
GROUND...ANY CLRNG OVRNGHT WILL ALLOW MERCURY TO FALL TO OR EVEN
BELOW MAV TEMP GUIDANCE.

DURING SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF FA EARLY IN DAY...WHILE
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GRTLKS HEADS EAST ACRS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC.
THE RESULT WILL BE A BRISK SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACRS FA DURING THE
DAY...WITH WINDS INCRG TO 15 TO 30 MPH...EXCEPT LIGHTER WINDS EAST
OF THE GREEN MTNS. EXPECT AN INCR IN CLDS AFTER SOME MORNING SUN.
MSTR LIMITED IN THE WAA PATTERN...WITH BEST FORCING WELL NORTH OF
THE BORDER. HAVE INCLUDED CHC SNOW SHWRS FOR PM OVER NRN
ZONES...ESPECIALLY NRN NY.

CDFNT MOVES THRU FA SAT NITE ACPYD BY CHC SNOW SHWRS. BEST CHC WILL
BE ACRS ADRNDKS AHEAD OF FROPA...WHERE FAVORABLE FLOW OFF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN ADDED MSTR AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUM.

DURING SUNDAY...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AS FRONT DEPRESSES SOUTH AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO FA. WE WILL BE UNDER CAA ALL
DAY...SO MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED EARLY. TEMPS IN MUCH OF
REGION WILL BE STEADY OPR EVEN FALLING A BIT. COLD HIGH DOMINATES
FOR SUN NITE INTO EARLY MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EARLY PORTIONS OF EXTENDED FCST
PERIOD WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN EVOLVING SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN.
LATEST 12Z OPERATIONAL SOLNS HAVE NOW STRONGLY DIVERGED FROM THE
MILDER EARLY WEEK PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN OFFERED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...NOW BREAKING OFF A CHUNK A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA AND DROPPING IT SE ACROSS AREA. BOTH ETA
AND GFS NOW SHOW THIS COLDER...ALBEIT SHALLOW AIRMASS QUITE WELL IN
THE RESPECTIVE 1000-850 HPA THICKNESS PROFILES. AIRMASS WILL OF
COURSE MODERATE CONSIDERABLY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD. NONETHELESS
IT WILL BE STUBBORN TO SCOUR OUT AS WAA AND ASSOC MOISTURE/PRECIP
ENCROACH ON AREA BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS TIMING
AND AMOUNT OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP THAT PUSHES INTO AREA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. ETA KEEPS PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH WITH STRONG BLOCKING AND
DRYNORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS AREA...WHEREAS GFS OVERRIDES ENTIRE AREA
WITH CONSIDERABLE QPF DURING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NT TIME FRAME.
AT THIS TIME RANGE...WILL GO WITH IDEA OF A SNOW TO RAIN EVENT
MONDAY/MON NITE...THEN CHC SHRA TUE...THOUGH POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
AN ENTIRELY DRY FCST FOR MONDAY...OR ONE WHICH WOULD OFFER COLDER
TEMPS...AND MORE P-TYPE CONCERNS AREA-WIDE.

AFTERWARDS MAINLY PC/PS AND DRY WED INTO WED NT. WILL THEN OFFER A
LOW CHC FOR -SN OR -SHSN FOR THU NT INTO FRI AS NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM DROPS SE ACROSS AREA.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
PRIMARILY IFR/MVFR CONDS THROUGH 00Z AS LINGERING -SHSN/BR SLOWLY
WANE ACROSS AREA UNDER LT WIND REGIME. MEAN COLUMNAR MOISTURE
PROFILES THIN CONSIDERABLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME BREAKS TOWARDS
MORNING...ESP VALLEY LOCALES. LIGHT FLOW BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY OR
SOUTHERLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...THEN GRADIENT TIGHTENS CONSIDERABLY
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 10-20KT RANGE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

RJS/JMG






FXUS61 KBTV 032215 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
515 PM EST FRI DEC 3 2004

.SHORT TERM...
HAVE ADDED A THROUGH THIS EVENING PERIOD TO THE FORECAST AS AREAS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.  STEEP LAPSE RATES EXIST OVER THE
AREA AND WITH DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES EXTENDING TO AROUND 500
MB...CONVECTIVE ELEMENT EXISTS TO THE PRECIPITATION.  THUS HAVE
MENTIONED ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH AS THE ACTIVITY
SPREADS EASTWARD.  NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

EVENSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION FROM 400 PM...
.SHORT TERM (TONITE THRU SUN NITE)...
WEAKENING LOW CENTER MOVG EAST ACRS VT THIS PM WITH SECOND LOW OFF
NEW ENG CST. RADAR STILL INDICATING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW...WHICH
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THRU THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC
POPS TILL ABOUT MIDNITE...THEN DRY WITH PARTIAL CLRNG AS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BLDS EAST FROM GRTLKS. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO MAV TEMP
GUIDANCE FOR TONITE. WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON
GROUND...ANY CLRNG OVRNGHT WILL ALLOW MERCURY TO FALL TO OR EVEN
BELOW MAV TEMP GUIDANCE.

DURING SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF FA EARLY IN DAY...WHILE
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GRTLKS HEADS EAST ACRS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC.
THE RESULT WILL BE A BRISK SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACRS FA DURING THE
DAY...WITH WINDS INCRG TO 15 TO 30 MPH...EXCEPT LIGHTER WINDS EAST
OF THE GREEN MTNS. EXPECT AN INCR IN CLDS AFTER SOME MORNING SUN.
MSTR LIMITED IN THE WAA PATTERN...WITH BEST FORCING WELL NORTH OF
THE BORDER. HAVE INCLUDED CHC SNOW SHWRS FOR PM OVER NRN
ZONES...ESPECIALLY NRN NY.

CDFNT MOVES THRU FA SAT NITE ACPYD BY CHC SNOW SHWRS. BEST CHC WILL
BE ACRS ADRNDKS AHEAD OF FROPA...WHERE FAVORABLE FLOW OFF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN ADDED MSTR AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUM.

DURING SUNDAY...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AS FRONT DEPRESSES SOUTH AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO FA. WE WILL BE UNDER CAA ALL
DAY...SO MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED EARLY. TEMPS IN MUCH OF
REGION WILL BE STEADY OPR EVEN FALLING A BIT. COLD HIGH DOMINATES
FOR SUN NITE INTO EARLY MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EARLY PORTIONS OF EXTENDED FCST
PERIOD WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN EVOLVING SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN.
LATEST 12Z OPERATIONAL SOLNS HAVE NOW STRONGLY DIVERGED FROM THE
MILDER EARLY WEEK PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN OFFERED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...NOW BREAKING OFF A CHUNK A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA AND DROPPING IT SE ACROSS AREA. BOTH ETA
AND GFS NOW SHOW THIS COLDER...ALBEIT SHALLOW AIRMASS QUITE WELL IN
THE RESPECTIVE 1000-850 HPA THICKNESS PROFILES. AIRMASS WILL OF
COURSE MODERATE CONSIDERABLY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD. NONETHELESS
IT WILL BE STUBBORN TO SCOUR OUT AS WAA AND ASSOC MOISTURE/PRECIP
ENCROACH ON AREA BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS TIMING
AND AMOUNT OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP THAT PUSHES INTO AREA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. ETA KEEPS PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH WITH STRONG BLOCKING AND
DRYNORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS AREA...WHEREAS GFS OVERRIDES ENTIRE AREA
WITH CONSIDERABLE QPF DURING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NT TIME FRAME.
AT THIS TIME RANGE...WILL GO WITH IDEA OF A SNOW TO RAIN EVENT
MONDAY/MON NITE...THEN CHC SHRA TUE...THOUGH POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
AN ENTIRELY DRY FCST FOR MONDAY...OR ONE WHICH WOULD OFFER COLDER
TEMPS...AND MORE P-TYPE CONCERNS AREA-WIDE.

AFTERWARDS MAINLY PC/PS AND DRY WED INTO WED NT. WILL THEN OFFER A
LOW CHC FOR -SN OR -SHSN FOR THU NT INTO FRI AS NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM DROPS SE ACROSS AREA.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
PRIMARILY IFR/MVFR CONDS THROUGH 00Z AS LINGERING -SHSN/BR SLOWLY
WANE ACROSS AREA UNDER LT WIND REGIME. MEAN COLUMNAR MOISTURE
PROFILES THIN CONSIDERABLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME BREAKS TOWARDS
MORNING...ESP VALLEY LOCALES. LIGHT FLOW BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY OR
SOUTHERLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...THEN GRADIENT TIGHTENS CONSIDERABLY
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 10-20KT RANGE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

RJS/JMG






FXUS61 KBTV 032103
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 PM EST FRI DEC 3 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONITE THRU SUN NITE)...
WEAKENING LOW CENTER MOVG EAST ACRS VT THIS PM WITH SECOND LOW OFF
NEW ENG CST. RADAR STILL INDICATING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW...WHICH
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THRU THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC
POPS TILL ABOUT MIDNITE...THEN DRY WITH PARTIAL CLRNG AS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BLDS EAST FROM GRTLKS. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO MAV TEMP
GUIDANCE FOR TONITE. WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON
GROUND...ANY CLRNG OVRNGHT WILL ALLOW MERCURY TO FALL TO OR EVEN
BELOW MAV TEMP GUIDANCE.

DURING SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF FA EARLY IN DAY...WHILE
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GRTLKS HEADS EAST ACRS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC.
THE RESULT WILL BE A BRISK SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACRS FA DURING THE
DAY...WITH WINDS INCRG TO 15 TO 30 MPH...EXCEPT LIGHTER WINDS EAST
OF THE GREEN MTNS. EXPECT AN INCR IN CLDS AFTER SOME MORNING SUN.
MSTR LIMITED IN THE WAA PATTERN...WITH BEST FORCING WELL NORTH OF
THE BORDER. HAVE INCLUDED CHC SNOW SHWRS FOR PM OVER NRN
ZONES...ESPECIALLY NRN NY.

CDFNT MOVES THRU FA SAT NITE ACPYD BY CHC SNOW SHWRS. BEST CHC WILL
BE ACRS ADRNDKS AHEAD OF FROPA...WHERE FAVORABLE FLOW OFF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN ADDED MSTR AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUM.

DURING SUNDAY...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AS FRONT DEPRESSES SOUTH AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO FA. WE WILL BE UNDER CAA ALL
DAY...SO MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED EARLY. TEMPS IN MUCH OF
REGION WILL BE STEADY OPR EVEN FALLING A BIT. COLD HIGH DOMINATES
FOR SUN NITE INTO EARLY MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EARLY PORTIONS OF EXTENDED FCST
PERIOD WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN EVOLVING SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN.
LATEST 12Z OPERATIONAL SOLNS HAVE NOW STRONGLY DIVERGED FROM THE
MILDER EARLY WEEK PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN OFFERED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...NOW BREAKING OFF A CHUNK A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA AND DROPPING IT SE ACROSS AREA. BOTH ETA
AND GFS NOW SHOW THIS COLDER...ALBEIT SHALLOW AIRMASS QUITE WELL IN
THE RESPECTIVE 1000-850 HPA THICKNESS PROFILES. AIRMASS WILL OF
COURSE MODERATE CONSIDERABLY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD. NONETHELESS
IT WILL BE STUBBORN TO SCOUR OUT AS WAA AND ASSOC MOISTURE/PRECIP
ENCROACH ON AREA BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS TIMING
AND AMOUNT OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP THAT PUSHES INTO AREA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. ETA KEEPS PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH WITH STRONG BLOCKING AND
DRYNORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS AREA...WHEREAS GFS OVERRIDES ENTIRE AREA
WITH CONSIDERABLE QPF DURING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NT TIME FRAME.
AT THIS TIME RANGE...WILL GO WITH IDEA OF A SNOW TO RAIN EVENT
MONDAY/MON NITE...THEN CHC SHRA TUE...THOUGH POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
AN ENTIRELY DRY FCST FOR MONDAY...OR ONE WHICH WOULD OFFER COLDER
TEMPS...AND MORE P-TYPE CONCERNS AREA-WIDE.

AFTERWARDS MAINLY PC/PS AND DRY WED INTO WED NT. WILL THEN OFFER A
LOW CHC FOR -SN OR -SHSN FOR THU NT INTO FRI AS NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM DROPS SE ACROSS AREA.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
PRIMARILY IFR/MVFR CONDS THROUGH 00Z AS LINGERING -SHSN/BR SLOWLY
WANE ACROSS AREA UNDER LT WIND REGIME. MEAN COLUMNAR MOISTURE
PROFILES THIN CONSIDERABLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME BREAKS TOWARDS
MORNING...ESP VALLEY LOCALES. LIGHT FLOW BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY OR
SOUTHERLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...THEN GRADIENT TIGHTENS CONSIDERABLY
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 10-20KT RANGE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

RJS/JMG














   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN



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