Expires:202009122000;;693871
FPUS51 KBTV 120732
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
329 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020
VTZ006-122000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
329 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020
.TODAY...Patchy dense fog this morning. Sunny. Highs in the upper
60s. Light and variable winds, becoming south around 10 mph this
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear until midnight, then becoming partly
cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. South winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a slight chance of showers in the
morning, then mostly cloudy with showers in the afternoon. Highs
in the upper 60s. South winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to
30 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 50s. Southwest
winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 60s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s.
.TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs around 60.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Warmer with highs around 70.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 50.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 60s.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 40s.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s.
$$
Expires:202009121100;;701774
ASUS41 KBTV 121030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2020
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-121100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON FOG 43 41 93 CALM 30.36S VSB 3/4
MONTPELIER LGT RAIN 40 39 97 CALM 30.40R VSB 1/4
MORRISVILLE FOG 39 38 96 CALM 30.39R VSB 1/4
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 39 38 96 MISG 30.37R
LYNDONVILLE* FOG 35 35 99 CALM 30.39R VSB 1/2
RUTLAND* CLEAR 42 42 100 S3 30.35S
SPRINGFIELD MOCLDY 40 38 93 CALM 30.39R FOG
HIGHGATE* FAIR 42 40 90 CALM 30.36S
NEWPORT* FAIR 34 32 93 SW5 30.39R WCI 30
BENNINGTON CLEAR 40 38 93 S3 30.34R
ISLAND POND* N/A 32 N/A N/A N1 N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 32 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 43 N/A N/A E10 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 52 48 87 SE3 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 52 50 93 E3 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 46 46 100 E5 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;694309
FXUS61 KBTV 120740
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
340 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A picture perfect day is expected across the North Country today
with sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The same
cannot be said for Sunday when widespread rain showers and gusty
winds are expected during the daylight hours. Winds and shower
activity will diminish Sunday night with high pressure building back
into the region for the first half of next week with below normal
temperatures expected. Additional frost will be possible across
northern New York and northeastern Vermont Monday night and Tuesday
night before temperatures begin to warm on Wednesday. Another cold
front on Thursday or Friday will bring cooler temperatures back to
the region for next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Saturday...It's been quite the chilly morning across
the North Country and as a matter of fact it's been the coldest day
across the region since early June. Several locations across the
northern Adirondacks and northeastern Vermont dropped into the lower
to mid 30s with Saranac Lake dropping below 30s degrees. With high
pressure currently cresting overheard, light winds and clear skies
have allowed for low stratus and patchy dense fog to develop across
favored locations across the North Country. With the sun angle
decreasing slightly each day, we likely won't see the fog/low
stratus lift until closer to 9 AM. Thereafter, skies are going to
clear with sunny skies expected to prevail through the majority day
with a few mid level clouds moving in shortly before sunset tonight.
Temperatures will be noticeably warmer this afternoon with highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.
In addition to sky cover increasing this evening, winds will also
begin to be on the increase. The high pressure that is currently
cresting overhead will exit to the east while a cold front
approaches from the west. This increasing gradient flow will allow
for wind to switch to the south and increase to 10-15 mph overnight.
A stark temperature gradient will be observed Saturday night as
cloud cover streams in from the west with lows in the mid to upper
50s across the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys and in the low to
mid 40s across eastern Vermont.
The onset of precipitation continues to be slower and slower with
each new model run as forcing looks unimpressive and shallow across
the North Country. Nevertheless, rain showers are expected to move
into the St. Lawrence Valley right around sunrise with rainfall not
making into western Vermont until the early afternoon hours. The
highest rainfall totals will occur across northern New York;
especially on the western slopes of the Adirondacks. Vermont will
see much lower rainfall totals as a strong low level jet will likely
create precipitation shadowing across the Champlain and Connecticut
River Valleys. Overall a quarter to half of an inch will be common
across northern New York with just a few hundreths to two-tenths of
an inch possible across Vermont.
In addition to the rainfall, we will see gusty winds throughout the
northern Champlain as the gradient flow increases and we mix down
the marine boundary layer. The latest NAM and BTV4 models show close
to 40 knots at the top of the marine boundary layer which should
yield some 35-45 mph gusts across Lake Champlain. Gusts of 15-30 mph
will be common across the rest of the northern Champlain Valley as
the strongest winds will remain confined to the lake. Winds will
peak around 2-4 PM as the perfect combination of gradient winds and
mixing will coincide. Winds will then begin to gradually weaken as
we head into the evening hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Saturday...The front will complete its trek across
the North Country Sunday night, ushering in cooler and drier air for
the start of the work week. Scattered showers will linger over the
higher terrain overnight Sunday night into Monday under cold air
advection. Skies will be slow to clear Monday in spite of the
building ridge, but do expect some sunshine by late in the day.
Highs will be in the 60s in most spots, though a few locations in
the higher terrain could well remain in the 50s. Clouds will
dissipate Monday night, and with light winds, expect it will be a
cool night. Lows will once again drop into the mid 30s across the
Adirondacks and the Northeast Kingdom, with patchy frost possible.
Elsewhere, temperatures will bottom out in the upper 30s to lower
40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Saturday...HIgh pressure will remain draped across
the North Country through the middle of next week, keeping the
weather dry. Flow aloft will be nearly zonal through Tuesday night,
turning a bit more southwest Wednesday. Therefore, after a
relatively chilly day on Tuesday, Wednesday will see temperatures
closer to normal. Things become less certain heading into the latter
half of the week as a cold front will push across the region. The
issue is model solutions differ by 12-24 hours on the timing of the
frontal passage, which has significant impacts on the precipitation
and temperature forecast. The GFS is fastest, bringing the front
through Thursday morning with little fanfare, perhaps just some
scattered showers. The ECMWF meanwhile brings the front through
Friday morning and is more robust with precipitation. The CMC lies
somewhere in between these solutions, passing the front through
during the day Thursday, keeping northern areas cooler than the
ECWMF but southern areas warmer than the GFS. Have stayed with a
model blend for now given these differences, resulting in low chance
PoPs for Thursday into early Friday and temperatures near to
slightly below seasonal normal.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Clear skies continue to prevail across the
North Country this morning but we have already begun to see
dense fog and low stratus develop at KSLK. Over the next 1-2
hours, we should see dense fog and low stratus develop over KMPV
and KMSS which will lift between 12Z and 13Z. Light southerly
winds and clear skies will prevail through the day today but we
will begin to see winds increase closer to 10 knots after 00Z.
Winds just off the surface will begin to increase ahead of a
cold front Saturday night with wind shear moving into KMSS
around 04Z and spread eastward thereafter.
Outlook...
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ004-007.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Clay
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