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SKIVT-L  March 2017, Week 1

SKIVT-L March 2017, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 1 Mar 2017 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (278 lines)

Expires:201703012100;;829527
FPUS51 KBTV 011100
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
558 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017


VTZ006-012100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
558 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

.TODAY...Showers likely. A slight chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon. Warmer with Highs around 60. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Rain showers likely. A slight chance of thunderstorms
until midnight...then snow showers likely after midnight. Little or
no snow accumulation. Lows around 30. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Gusts up to 45 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation
70 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with snow showers likely in the morning...
then partly sunny with a slight chance of rain or snow showers in
the afternoon. Total snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches
possible. Breezy with Highs in the mid 30s. West winds 15 to 25 mph
with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 10 above. Northwest
winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 20s. Northwest winds around
10 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around zero. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs 15 to 20. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows zero to 5 above zero. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows in the lower 20s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of rain or snow showers. Highs
in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow or rain showers.
Lows around 30. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Rain or snow showers likely. Highs in the lower 40s.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 

$$


Expires:201703011200;;831139
ASUS41 KBTV 011130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST WED MAR 01 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-011200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    53  45  74 S12       29.65F                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    43  43 100 S7        29.73F                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    43  39  86 S3        29.69F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     39  36  89 MISG      29.72F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    40  39  95 SE8       29.71F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    54  37  53 SE7       29.66F                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    49  45  86 E14       29.72F                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    37  35  92 CALM      29.75F FOG              
HIGHGATE*      MOCLDY    53  46  77 S12G21    29.61F                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    41  39  93 S8        29.67F                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    55  48  77 S10       29.73F                  
SUTTON*          N/A     37 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     41 N/A N/A N1          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     34 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     36 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     41 N/A N/A SW16G28     N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     46  43  87 S15         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     46  43  87 S20         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     48  45  87 S13         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;831811
FXUS61 KBTV 011148
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
648 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
March is definitely coming in like a lion. Today we will see
record high temperatures...showers with the potential for
thunderstorms in the afternoon...locally heavy rains...and later
tonight into Thursday morning the precipitation changing over to
snow showers. In addition...gusty southwest winds will develop
over the area late tonight with gusts of 35 to 45 mph and then
stay gusty from the northwest on Thursday. Colder and drier
weather is expected for the end of the week into the first part
of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 605 AM EST Wednesday...Overall forecast in good shape.
First wave of showers moving in pretty quickly this morning and
have sped up onset by a couple of hours. Should be a lull toward
midday before more reforms this afternoon.

Previous Discussion...
Where to begin as there will be a wide variety of weather to 
start the month of March. Let us go with temperatures first. 
Still expecting record high temperatures today with highs in the
mid 50s to lower 60s. Clouds and deeper moisture should keep 
readings tempered a bit...but already starting out on the warm 
side. Feel there will be a window of some sun this afternoon and
that should be enough to get us to record levels. Looking at 
scattered to numerous showers throughout the day today. Some 
instability does develop this afternoon and thus cannot rule out
the possibility of a few thunderstorms...especially from the 
northern Adironacks eastward across a good portion of Vermont. 
High precipitable water values exist and thus there could be 
some locally heavy downpours with any of the convection this 
afternoon into the evening. Feel heavy rainfall will not be 
widespread like this past weekend to limit the flood threat a 
bit. The above normal temperatures will lead to some 
snowmelt/runoff but we did lose a lot of snow in the last event 
and also broke up some river ice. Rivers will be rising later 
today into tonight...but widespread threat of flooding looks low
at this time. Nevertheless will need to watch for localized 
flooding.

Big thing tonight into Thursday will be the wind. Strong southwest
low level jet moves up into the area tonight...especially over
northern New York and enough mixing will take place for wind
gusts most areas of New York in the 35 to 45 mph range. The
stronger winds will eventually spread into Vermont during the
overnight hours. Cold front moves across the area late tonight
into Thursday and we will see winds trending more west and
northwest during this time period. Mixing will take place and
the flow aloft remains strong...thus looking at more wind gusts
over most of the area on Thursday in the 35 to 45 mph range.
Downsloping over Windsor county could lead to even stronger wind
gusts in areas like Springfield. Areal coverage of precipitation
will be decreasing late tonight into Thursday and should come to
an end by later in the afternoon or be more terrain driven.
Colder air moving in will also turn the precipitation over to
snow showers and could see a dusting to two inches...especially
in the mountains late tonight into Thursday. But not as extreme
as the event last weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 321 AM EST Wednesday...First strong shortwave has passed along 
with snow shower activity but deeper, colder trof across the 
area with another, colder shortwave poised for replenishing cold
air Friday night-Saturday. After record breaking warmth for 
much of the winter and especially the past week...this upcoming 
cold will seem very harsh as accompanied by brisk winds. Single 
numbers and teens Thu ngt with 20s on Friday...nearly 10 degrees
colder than normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 321 AM EST Wednesday...s just mentioned above...Strong, cold 
shortwave dives into base of deeper cold trof for coldest air 
in some time accompanied by brisk winds at times as well.

A -25 to -30C 850mb core quickly drops then exits northern regions 
Fri ngt-Saturday. Fri Ngt lows -10 to +10 across region with a 
decent breeze for sub-zero wind chills but with cold core aloft 
mountain tops will witness -30F or colder wind chills Fri ngt-Sat.
March sun may help a tad on Saturday but temps in the teens to
lower 20s and Wind Chills around zero.

Upper trof exits Sat ngt with Strong Ridge building behind and Warm 
air advection moving into NT by 12z Sun and elsewhere on Sunday. 
Coldest temps Sat ngt in eastern VT but even western areas drop 
quickly before holding on even rising slightly. I may have not gone 
cold enough but don't have the snow cover either.

The warm air advection develops on Sunday with increasing clouds and 
a disturbance in the flow will bring about snow showers Sun ngt and 
snow/rain showers Mon with Highs Sunday in 30s and 40s Monday.

Models are still struggling on timing and amplitude of next northern 
stream shortwave and surface low. ECMWF seems faster, stronger and 
deeper...further south than GFS. The consensus from WPC is moving 
closer toward ECMWF thus rain/snow showers Mon ngt and continue Tues 
with snow showers and northwest upslope flow for Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 12Z Thursday...First wave of showers is moving across
the area and will exit by 16z. There will be some lingering
showers between 16z and 20z before the next wave of showers and
isolated thunderstorms move across the area through about 03z.
The precipitation will gradually taper off through the remainder
of the period but will be changing from rain showers to snow 
showers. Ceilings through the whole time period will be MVFR and
VFR while visibilities will generally be in the VFR category but
lower to MVFR/IFR during the two main waves of precipitation.
Probably the most important element will be the winds after 00z
as they will become rather gusty from the west and southwest at
speeds of 25 to 35 knots...especially after 06z.

Outlook 12Z Thursday through Sunday...

12Z Thursday 12Z Saturday...Some snow showers are expected on
Thursday with VFR/MVFR visibilities and ceilings...but then
conditions will become VFR through Saturday. Conditions change
on Sunday as an area of precipitation moves into the region late
bringing MVFR ceilings and visibilities.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 401 AM EST Wednesday...Will still need to watch the hydro
threat today and tonight. Rivers have continued to lower the
past couple of day and we have lost a lot of the lower level
snow along with river ice due to the warmer temperatures. Areal
coverage of the rainfall will be more spotty this afternoon and
evening as its more convective in nature. So localized bursts of
heavier precipitation are possible which could impact
rivers...but overall amounts will be in the third to two thirds
of an inch range. This will cause rises...but feeling right now
is most rivers will remain in there banks. Will fine tune river
forecasts as the day progresses and monitor the situation
closely.

&&

.CLIMATE...
We should see some records broken today based on our forecast 
high temperatures. Current records for March 1st are as follows:

Burlington - 59 set in 1954
Montpelier - 53 set in 1991
St. Johnsbury - 58 set in 1954
Massena - 49 set in 1954

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Evenson
HYDROLOGY...Evenson
CLIMATE...Evenson

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