Expires:202210092000;;117920
FPUS51 KBTV 090651
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
247 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022
VTZ018-092000-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
247 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022
.TODAY...Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers this morning,
then a chance of showers this afternoon. Highs in the lower 50s.
Southwest winds around 10 mph, becoming west with gusts up to
25 mph this afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain
showers. Patchy frost after midnight. Lows in the mid 30s.
Northwest winds around 10 mph until midnight, becoming light and
variable.
.COLUMBUS DAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers in
the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs in the
lower 50s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Light and
variable winds.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. Southwest winds
around 10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 30s.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s.
.THURSDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 60s. Chance of
rain 60 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Chance of
rain 70 percent.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 50s.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s.
$$
Expires:202210091100;;127865
ASUS41 KBTV 091030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2022
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-091100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 45 37 73 S13 29.97F
MONTPELIER PTCLDY 41 33 73 S8 30.01F
MORRISVILLE MOCLDY 39 36 89 SW5 29.97F
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 32 30 92 MISG 29.98F
LYNDONVILLE* N/A 33 31 96 SE5 29.98F WCI 28
MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 43 37 78 S9 30.00F
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 43 34 70 VRB5 30.03S
SPRINGFIELD FOG 32 32 100 CALM 30.04F VSB 1/2
HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 46 38 74 S6 29.94F
NEWPORT* CLOUDY 40 38 92 SW3 29.96S
BENNINGTON CLEAR 30 28 92 CALM 30.05F
ISLAND POND* N/A 39 N/A N/A SW2 N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 30 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A N/A N/A N/A SW31 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 48 41 76 S25 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 46 37 71 S14 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;119748
FXUS61 KBTV 090731
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
331 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Will have a chance of showers today, especially downwind of
Lake Ontario, as a cold front drops south across our area. A
warming trend and a return to drier weather is expected for
Monday night through Wednesday night. Unsettled weather and
potentially strong winds then arrive late in the work week
associated with a frontal passage.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Sunday... Showers will increase in areal
coverage this morning as a cold front passes from north to south
across our forecast area today. We will also have a shortwave
trough passing overhead which also supports showers, though the
best chances will be downwind of Lake Ontario and over the
higher terrain of the Adirondacks and north/central Green
Mountains. Total liquid precipitation is expected to be 0.25
inches or less. The front will slowly drift southward today,
with cooler temperatures expected behind it. Highs will be in
the upper 40s to mid 50s. As the front drifts south of our
region, it will stall out just south of our area, and this will
keep clouds in place across our southern zones. This will lead
to warmer temperatures in that area for tonight, with lows only
reaching the higher 30s to lower 40s. Across our northern zones
we could see lows in the 20s and may have to consider a frost
advisory for areas where the growing season is still ongoing.
Have not issued a frost advisory at this time since there is
still one out for early this morning in parts of our area. Then
on Monday we'll have additional chances for showers as front
remains draped just south of our region, and the best chances
for showers will be across our southern zones with another piece
of shortwave energy crossing overhead. High temperatures on
Monday will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, pretty similar to
today as we remain in cooler sector behind the stalled out front
to our south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...Showers will come to an end Monday
evening, and begin a quieter period of weather. Skies will
gradually clear from northwest to southeast during this time
frame and we'll have yet another cold night in store. Minimum
temperatures will range from the upper 20s in the coldest spots
to around 40 close to Lake Champlain with clearing skies and
light winds and a drier air mass moving into our area. Tuesday
will feature quiet weather and warming temperatures, with
surface and upper level ridging in place over the northeastern
CONUS. High temperatures will reach the lower 60s in parts of
our forecast area which will seem warm after the past several
days with clouds and rain showers.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...High pressure will remain anchored
across coastal New England Wednesday morning before beginning to
shift out across the Atlantic Wednesday night. A highly
amplified trough with a closed 500 mb low is expected to quickly
traverse the central US on Wednesday and will begin moving into
the eastern US Thursday afternoon. A strong warm front linked
to the upper level trough and closed low will begin to move into
the region Thursday night into Friday morning. Run-to-run
consistency on timing remains poor but both deterministic and
ensemble members are in strikingly good agreement with this
strong synoptic system moving into the region late this week.
Strong surface convergence is expected with the warm front as a
strong pressure gradient and southerly low level jet sets up
across the region ahead of the front. The combination of above
normal PWATs, strong surface convection, and impressive jet
dynamics should allow for very efficient rainfall processes as
the front moves across the North Country. We will need to watch
for downslope and upslope precipitation patterns given the low
level jet backs to the southeast with winds of 50 to 60 knots
around mountain top level. Model soundings at this time don't
show a critical layer near mountain top which isn't conducive
for mountain wave activity but any mixing that occurs (mainly in
the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys) could possibly yield
gusts in the 30 to 45 mph range. This is something we will
continue to monitor closely in the coming days.
As with any mature extratropical low, a well defined dry slot
is expected to move into Vermont Friday night and continue
through the day on Saturday. Winds will weaken behind the
frontal passage as the pressure gradient relaxes and the LLJ
exits eastward. Several upper level disturbances embedded within
the upper level trough will continue to bring rain chances
Saturday night into Sunday with the actual cold front moving
through the region early next week. This should mark a
noticeable pattern change as the upper level trough is expected
to remain over the east coast with the Climate Prediction Center
noting below normal temperatures for much of the mid-October
period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...VFR conditions prevail across our forecast
area with south to southwest winds of 5 to 10 knots with
sporadic gusts up to 15 knots. A cold front will rapidly
approach this morning with winds shifting to the west and
ultimately to the northwest throughout the day following the
frontal passage. Ceilings are expected to lower to 3500 to 5000
ft at most places but KSLK is expected to see a brief period of
MVFR ceilings with upslope flow behind the front. Gusty winds
are expected behind the front with gusts up to 25 knots
possible. Scattered rain showers will impact terminals but no
inclusion of reduced visibilities was included with this
forecast package given the sporadic nature of the expected
showers.
Outlook...
Columbus Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Patchy frost.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ010-020-021.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Clay
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