Expires:202004252000;;172133
FPUS51 KBTV 251000
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
556 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020
VTZ006-252000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
556 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020
.TODAY...Partly sunny this morning, then clearing. Highs in the
mid 50s. Northwest winds around 10 mph.
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear until midnight, then becoming partly
cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Light and variable winds, becoming
east around 10 mph after midnight.
.SUNDAY...Cloudy. A chance of rain in the morning, then rain
likely in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 40s. Light and
variable winds, becoming east around 10 mph in the afternoon.
Chance of rain 70 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Rain or snow likely. Little or no snow
accumulation. Lows in the mid 30s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
.MONDAY...Rain or snow likely. Little or no additional snow
accumulation. Highs in the mid 40s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers.
Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Highs in
the mid 40s. Chance of snow 40 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the upper 30s. Chance of
rain 60 percent.
.THURSDAY...Rain likely. Highs in the lower 50s. Chance of rain
70 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows around 40. Chance of rain
70 percent.
.FRIDAY...Rain likely. Highs in the mid 50s. Chance of rain
70 percent.
$$
Expires:202004251100;;173720
ASUS41 KBTV 251030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2020
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-251100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON MOCLDY 43 16 33 CALM 30.00R
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 38 19 46 CALM 30.01R
MORRISVILLE FAIR 36 25 64 CALM 29.99R
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 40 23 50 MISG 29.96R
LYNDONVILLE* MOCLDY 38 13 36 CALM 30.00R
MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 40 22 49 CALM 30.00R
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 38 26 62 CALM 29.99R
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 39 30 70 CALM 29.98R
HIGHGATE* FAIR 39 22 49 CALM 30.02R
NEWPORT* FAIR 31 25 79 CALM 30.00R
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 38 30 73 CALM 29.96R
ISLAND POND* N/A 32 N/A N/A NW2 N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 32 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 32 N/A N/A CALM N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 34 N/A N/A N8 N/A WCI 27
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 41 21 45 MISG N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 43 25 49 N6 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 46 16 29 NW8 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;173479
FXUS61 KBTV 251023
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
623 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure drifting southward from southern Canada will bring the
North Country dry weather and seasonal temperatures for today.
Unsettled conditions return for Sunday morning through Monday
with valley rain and mountain snow showers expected. High
pressure returns again for next Tuesday and Wednesday, with more
unsettled weather expected late in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 613 AM EDT Saturday...Upper shortwave and deck of
stratocumulus is beginning to clear the region. Tweaked hourly
temperatures some again, as overnight lows struggled to fall
underneath the canopy of clouds. A nice day is in store today
with a strengthening upper ridge and high pressure, temps warm
into the upper 50s to lower 60s with mostly clear skies as a
weak upper shortwave slips east of the region. Overnight lows
falling into the 30s, though parts of the southern Champlain
Valley and St. Lawrence could stick around 40 under warm
advection.
Sunday begins with increasing clouds as a developing upper low
ejects some energy northwards. To the north will be a 1030mb high
just east of James Bay in Canada. This will set the stage for a
complex and challenging forecast. Surface high pressure will
help to maintain dry northerly flow in the low-levels. Closer to
the system, forecast soundings along southern Vermont indicate
less dry air, so these should be the first to see precipitation
Sunday morning. This leading energy lifts northwards ahead of
the bulk of the precipitation, which will begin to lift
northwards Sunday afternoon. With warm, moist air to our south
and dry, cool air to our north, we will set the stage for a
tight baroclinic zone, which will be reinforced with a well-
defined deformation axis in the mid-levels. North of the
boundary, a 40-45 knot easterly LLJ will develop, with the North
Country along the nose of this feature. Q-vectors indicate
excellent low-level convergence across much of New England.
Aloft, a coupled jet structure will also provide some
reinforcement to the warm frontal boundary with a supportive
ageostrophic circulation along the frontal axis. This potent
warm front lifts into the North Country around 1-3 PM EDT Sunday.
The location of 700-500hPa FGEN is favorable and several forecast
soundings depict the strongest omega values within the DGZ. Also
supporting this precipitation will be a TROWAL, noted in the 850-
700mb mean Theta E just to the north of the low. Strong isentropic
ascent and upper jet diffluence all suggest moderate to locally
heavy precipitation along the mid-level front. It's not all perfect,
though. There are some inhibiting factors as dry air entrainment
from the surface high to our north keeps the boundary layer
from saturating. Additionally, the timing of the best moisture
within the DGZ is inconsistent amongst the various model
guidance and occasionally suggests dry air entraining in the mid
to upper levels, which would hinder precipitation efficiency.
The good news, is that conditions have been dry, and the window of
steady precipitation will be about 6-9 hours, as the supporting
dynamics of this system gradually decay and shift east by 2 AM EDT
Monday. The shift east will take place along the Adirondacks and
south-central Vermont, keeping areas north outside some of the best
dynamics. Precipitation will be lighter and more showery as upper
low lingers overhead with the highest chances tapering towards the
mountains and eastern Vermont. Dry antecedent conditions should keep
hydro related concerns to a minimum, but will continue to assess as
river peaks are not quite within the forecast window and long
range ensembles suggest conditions should remain below flood
stage. Storm total forecasts indicate about 1.00"-1.25" inches
of QPF for the eastern Dacks and portions of south- central
Vermont with locally higher amounts over the peaks. The rest of
the region will see a sharp gradient since they will not be in
the best forcing and closer to dry air seeping in from the
North. Outside of these areas, the general forecast indicates
0.25"-0.75" of QPF, and in the northern extremes of the St.
Lawrence Valley, less than 0.10".
Let's talk snow now.
Though thermal profiles are marginal for snow due to temperatures
being near freezing to around 40 F, the dynamics of this system are
very impressive and with omega values in the crosshairs of the DGZ,
snow growth will be efficient. It's a challenging forecast to be
sure. Anticipate wet snow within any mesobanding features that
develop, mainly geared towards southern Vermont and areas east of
the Green Mountains for our forecast area. Additional snow will be
possible Monday as temperatures cool aloft under the upper low, but
without the intense dynamics, it will become highly terrain
dependent for the remainder of Monday.
Expect snow levels to drop to around 1000ft during the period of
heaviest precipitation from about 5 PM Sunday to 2 AM Sunday. and
generally have a dusting to 1". This will be mostly for eastern
Vermont due to the more favorable upslope component in the low-level
easterly flow.
Areas near to above 2000ft elevation will likely see a wet 1"-4",
with the higher amounts focused in the eastern Adirondacks and
southern Greens of Vermont. Then at the higher summits, generally
above 3000ft, there is about 4"-12" forecast, with the highest
forecast over Mt. Marcy and Killington/Mendon Peak. Will continue to
assess and revise as more becomes known about this dynamic system.
Analyzing the wind potential, the good news is that development of
the 40-50kt easterly LLJ takes place once the warm front begins to
lift into the region and as we become more stable in the low-levels
from precipitation. With that, it generally looks like gusts will be
15 to 25 mph at most for this event. Otherwise, winds out of the
northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 403 AM EDT Saturday...Upper low continues to spin overhead on
Monday with enough moisture to continue rain or snow showers,
depending on elevation and temperature. Cloudy with north winds
around 10 mph and highs in the mid to upper 40s. Bulk of the
discussion on lingering precipitation and amounts are detailed
within the near term discussion.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 352 AM EDT Saturday...It'll stay pretty unsettled through much
of next week. Low pressure situated off the East Coast will slowly
pull away Monday night and Tuesday. Moisture will continue to spin
around this low and into our region as it moves away, keeping the
threat of rain/mountain snow through Tuesday. We'll finally see a
dry spell Wednesday as high pressure scoots across the area ahead of
our next system. Low pressure will move east across the Great Lakes
Wednesday night and drift over New England Thursday and Friday. This
will bring widespread rain to the area during this timeframe,
possibly changing to snow over the highest peaks at night. A strong
southeast jet will develop out ahead of the low, which will cross
the region Wednesday night and Thursday. Strong southeast winds will
be possible, especially in those favored downslope areas along the
western Greens. After a chilly start, temperatures will show a bit
of a warming trend to close to normal through the week, as the south
flow ahead of the incoming low will allow warm air to spread into
the North Country for mid-late next week.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Continued VFR conditions with light winds
at all sites throughout the forecast period. Cloud deck
6000-8000 ft currently draped across the North Country will
slowly shift southeast through early Saturday morning, leaving
clear skies through much of the daylight hours. Mid/high clouds
begin to increase from the south after 00z Sunday. Light and
variable winds overnight will become north to northeast around
5 kt or less after 12z Saturday, becoming light and variable
again after 00z Sun.
Outlook...
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible.
Likely RA, Definite SN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance RA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
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