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| Date: | Sun, 12 Mar 2006 15:49:13 -0500 |
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Can't say too much on the threat right now but from Tuesday night through
early Thursday, parameters look to become favorable for possibly
significant upslope snowfall in the northern Adirondacks and northern
Green Mountains. Now, I am afraid to use the phrase "significant upslope
snowfall" as right now, everyone's mind goes back to the 15-30" snowfall
that occurred just a little over a week ago. However, when I break down
snowfall amounts in my head it goes something like this:
Light: 2-5"
Moderate: 4-8"
Significant: 6-12"+
Thus, when significant anything (upslope, lake effect, nor'easter, etc) is
used, it means I feel someone will get snowfall accumulations in excess of
6". It could be 7", it could be 20".
Bottom line at this point (executive summary):
Warmth and occasional rain through midday Tuesday. Cold front sweeps
through and any rain showers change to snow showers by Tuesday evening.
Tuesday night through Thursday morning mountain snow showers are likely
with some accumulation. Winds will be moderate to strong enough for lift
holds during this time period as well. Temperatures will go from well
above freezing on Tuesday to well below freezing (single digits higher
elevations) by Wednesday night. Moderating temperatures but still below
freezing in the mountains through next weekend with another chance of snow
on Saturday.
Discussion: Cut off low becomes vertically stacked by Wednesday morning
just to the NE of Maine. Wind flow is not looking nearly as favorable as
the last event...more WNW instead of NNW meaning the Adirondacks would see
more snowfall than the last event. Position of the low is also closer
than the last event, pushing the more favorable winds west of Vermont.
Event duration is also over the 12hr criteria although winds will be
shifting around so might not stay one direction for 12hrs or longer.
Strong cold air advection and moisture being pumped around the low could
still bring significant snow accumulations to northern NY and the Green
Mountain spine from MRG/SB northward. Accumulating snowfall is expected
in the mountains from Tuesday night through Thursday morning. How much is
the question.
Will be watching this closely. More updates forthcoming.
-Scott
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