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March 2006, Week 2

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Subject:
Here We Go Again...Upslope Midweek?
From:
Scott Braaten <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Sun, 12 Mar 2006 15:49:13 -0500
Content-Type:
text/plain
Parts/Attachments:
text/plain (48 lines)
Can't say too much on the threat right now but from Tuesday night through 
early Thursday, parameters look to become favorable for possibly 
significant upslope snowfall in the northern Adirondacks and northern 
Green Mountains.  Now, I am afraid to use the phrase "significant upslope 
snowfall" as right now, everyone's mind goes back to the 15-30" snowfall 
that occurred just a little over a week ago.  However, when I break down 
snowfall amounts in my head it goes something like this:
Light: 2-5"
Moderate: 4-8"
Significant: 6-12"+

Thus, when significant anything (upslope, lake effect, nor'easter, etc) is 
used, it means I feel someone will get snowfall accumulations in excess of 
6". It could be 7", it could be 20".

Bottom line at this point (executive summary): 
Warmth and occasional rain through midday Tuesday.  Cold front sweeps 
through and any rain showers change to snow showers by Tuesday evening.  
Tuesday night through Thursday morning mountain snow showers are likely 
with some accumulation.  Winds will be moderate to strong enough for lift 
holds during this time period as well.  Temperatures will go from well 
above freezing on Tuesday to well below freezing (single digits higher 
elevations) by Wednesday night.  Moderating temperatures but still below 
freezing in the mountains through next weekend with another chance of snow 
on Saturday.

Discussion: Cut off low becomes vertically stacked by Wednesday morning 
just to the NE of Maine.  Wind flow is not looking nearly as favorable as 
the last event...more WNW instead of NNW meaning the Adirondacks would see 
more snowfall than the last event.  Position of the low is also closer 
than the last event, pushing the more favorable winds west of Vermont.  
Event duration is also over the 12hr criteria although winds will be 
shifting around so might not stay one direction for 12hrs or longer.  
Strong cold air advection and moisture being pumped around the low could 
still bring significant snow accumulations to northern NY and the Green 
Mountain spine from MRG/SB northward.  Accumulating snowfall is expected 
in the mountains from Tuesday night through Thursday morning.  How much is 
the question.  

Will be watching this closely.  More updates forthcoming.

-Scott

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