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May 2005, Week 5

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Subject:
From:
Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Mon, 30 May 2005 06:50:01 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
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text/plain (315 lines)
Expires:200505302100;;437702
FPUS51 KBTV 300740
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2005


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-302100-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RANDOLPH...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
340 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2005

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. LIGHT WINDS.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. LIGHT WINDS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 300727
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
SFC/UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE. WK SFC HI PRESS TO
AFFECT THE FA ON TUE THRU WED.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
00-02Z 13KM "DEVELOPMENT" RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE
M60S-M70S TODAY WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS 5-15KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN
THE M60S-L70S TODAY. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON
THIS DATA. RUC CAPES ACRS THE FA TODAY LOOK TO BE AOB 500 J/KG. RUC
SHOWS MOCLDY SKIES ACRS THE FA TODAY WITH SCT CONVECTION ACRS THE FA
MOSTLY THIS AFTERNOON.

WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE...WITH WK WAA
ON TUE THRU WED. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD (MOSTLY ACRS THE NRN TIER ZONES TODAY THOUGH).
LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA OVER THE NEXT THREE
AFTERNOONS. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA ON WED. SOME
MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA TODAY AND EARLY TONITE. PW VALUES ACRS
THE FA LOOK TO BE 0.5-1" ACRS THE FA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD. NAM CAPES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE BLW 1500 J/KG ON TUE...BLW
800 J/KG ON TUE NITE...AND BLW 1300 J/KG ON WED.

BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW LT RETURNS ACRS THE FAR NRN TIER ZONES
ATTM. THE BROKEN RECORD OF WET-BULB ZERO HTS OF 6.5-7 KFT CONTINUES
ACRS THE FA TODAY...SO SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN ANY MORE
INTENSE CONVECTION. SPOTTER REPORTS OF MOSTLY SMALL HAIL HAVE BEEN
INCREASING OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AS WELL. ENVIRONMENT ACRS THE FA
APPEARS TO BE EVEN MORE WEAKLY SHEARED TODAY THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

EXPECTING SCT CONVECTION ACRS THE FA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS OF AT
LEAST TODAY AND TUE...WITH MAYBE SOME MORE EVEN ON WED. WILL TAPER
POPS OFF FROM CHC TO SCHC ACRS THE FA BY WED. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE
M-U70S ON TUE AND HAVE GONE BLW THESE VALUES BASED ON EXPECTED
CLD COVER/WX THEN. T1MIN TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE U40S-M50S TONITE AND
ON TUE NITE. WILL OPT TO HANDLE ANY LINGERING FG ISSUES EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE STF.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR NOW EXCEPT TO TRY AND BETTER MESH
WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.

WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
4 AM.

.AVIATION...
MID CLOUD DECK...CEILINGS BETWEEN 8K AND 10K...TO PERSIST OVER THE
AREA THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING...BEFORE BEGINNING TO DECREASE A
BIT IN AREAL COVERAGE.  POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING...HOWEVER
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z AND PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 00Z.
LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO EXIST.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS
AT OR ABOVE 4K.  NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS NEAR ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MURRAY
AVIATION...EVENSON





FXUS61 KBTV 300213
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1010 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS ALREADY SENT...MAINLY JUST TO KEEP FCST
CURRENT. TSRA ACTIVITY HAS ENDED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
RESULTANT INSTABILITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER ADRNDKS
AND NRN TIER OF VT ZONES. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHC POPS OVERNIGHT
MOST AREAS...WITH HIGHER CHC FOR NC/NE VT. ALSO EXPECT SOME
PTCHY FOPG TO DEVELOP OVRNGHT AS GOING FCST ALREADY
INDICATED...PRIMARILY IN THOSE LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCED THE
GREATEST AMOUNT OF SHWR ACTIVITY PAST 12 HRS. MIN TEMPS OVRNGHT
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 IN MOST AREAS...WITH COOLEST READINGS
EXPECTED IN ADRNDKS.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KBTV/KMSS. A PERIOD OF MVFR
TO PERHAPS IFR CIGS/VSBYS PSBL KSLK/KMPV 06Z-12Z IN RADIATION FOG.
TSRA THREAT HAS ENDED FOR TONIGHT. DURING MONDAY...EXPECT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES WITH WDLY SCT TSRA DVLPG
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 322 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...W/ RUT/WIND CTY PRECIP FREE FOR MOST PART ATTM AFTER
PERSISTENT SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF MORNING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE THRU SUNSET...BFR TAPERING OFF TO SCAT -RW AND PATCHY FG
OVERNITE INTO EARLY MON MORN. MDLS BRING UPPER LOW SLOWLY ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW ENG BFR TRANFERRING OFF COAST LATE ON MON. W/ SOME
CLRING AGAIN AHEAD OF LOW PASSAGE...EXPECTING SOME -RW/-TRW ACTIVITY
ESPECIALLY AFT MIDDAY AND WILL PUT IN ZONES...BUT -TRW SHOULD BE
LESSENED FROM PAST COUPLE DAYS WITH LESS SOUTHERLY FEED AND MORE
CLDS FROM UPPER LOW. MDLS HINT FOR SOME CLRING BETWEEN EXITING LOW
AND BUILDING RIDGE TOWARDS MIDWEEK. WILL MENTION SL CHANCE FOR TUES
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME MOISTURE STILL REMAINING FROM LOW TO EAST THAT
BUILDS IN SOUTH FROM WRAP-AROUND. IT SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MOSTLY
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE OVERALL PATTERN WL BE GNRL ULVL RIDGING BUILDING INTO FA WITH
SFC HIGH DEPARTING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BUT SOME SFC
RIDGING WORKING BACK INTO FA. A COUPLE OF WEAK ULVL VORT MAXES AND
ELONGATED VORT CHANNEL CUD BRG ABT SOME INSTABILITY -SHRA ALG SRN FA
AND HAVE PLACED SLGT CHC THU/FRI.

ULVL RDG BUILDING ACRS FA LATE WEEK WL ACCNT FOR WRMG TREND AND
EVENTUAL WRM FNT SUN FOR INCRSD MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS) AS WELL. A
PSBL TROF MVG INTO WRN FA LATE SUN/SUN NGT WL BRG ABT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA
AND HAVE INTRODUCED LATE IN THE DAY.

AVIATION...
PRETTY MUCH SMLR TO YDY...DFRNTL HEATING WITH ELONGATED VORT
CHANNELS AND TOPOGRAPHY PLAYING ROLE IN SHRA/TSRA ACTVTY AS LAPSE
RATES ARE QUITE LARGE. GRTST CONCENTRATION IN MTN TERRAIN AND SLOW
MVG. VFR CONDS WL DOMINATE THRU PERIOD WITH SOME XCPTNS...THRU 22Z
ISOLD/SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WL MAINLY BRG MVFR BUT VRY ISOLD IFR PSBL IN
TSRA DOWNPOUR AS KSLK AT 18Z. AFT 00Z...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVF DUE
TO RDTNL COOLING FOG IN MTN VLYS...ESP WHERE PCPN HAS FALLEN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$







FXUS61 KBTV 291922
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...W/ RUT/WIND CTY PRECIP FREE FOR MOST PART ATTM AFTER
PERSISTENT SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF MORNING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE THRU SUNSET...BFR TAPERING OFF TO SCAT -RW AND PATCHY FG
OVERNITE INTO EARLY MON MORN. MDLS BRING UPPER LOW SLOWLY ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW ENG BFR TRANFERRING OFF COAST LATE ON MON. W/ SOME
CLRING AGAIN AHEAD OF LOW PASSAGE...EXPECTING SOME -RW/-TRW ACTIVITY
ESPECIALLY AFT MIDDAY AND WILL PUT IN ZONES...BUT -TRW SHOULD BE
LESSENED FROM PAST COUPLE DAYS WITH LESS SOUTHERLY FEED AND MORE
CLDS FROM UPPER LOW. MDLS HINT FOR SOME CLRING BETWEEN EXITING LOW
AND BUILDING RIDGE TOWARDS MIDWEEK. WILL MENTION SL CHANCE FOR TUES
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME MOISTURE STILL REMAINING FROM LOW TO EAST THAT
BUILDS IN SOUTH FROM WRAP-AROUND. IT SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MOSTLY
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA.
&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE OVERALL PATTERN WL BE GNRL ULVL RIDGING BUILDING INTO FA WITH
SFC HIGH DEPARTING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BUT SOME SFC
RIDGING WORKING BACK INTO FA. A COUPLE OF WEAK ULVL VORT MAXES AND
ELONGATED VORT CHANNEL CUD BRG ABT SOME INSTABILITY -SHRA ALG SRN FA
AND HAVE PLACED SLGT CHC THU/FRI.

ULVL RDG BUILDING ACRS FA LATE WEEK WL ACCNT FOR WRMG TREND AND
EVENTUAL WRM FNT SUN FOR INCRSD MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS) AS WELL. A
PSBL TROF MVG INTO WRN FA LATE SUN/SUN NGT WL BRG ABT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA
AND HAVE INTRODUCED LATE IN THE DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
PRETTY MUCH SMLR TO YDY...DFRNTL HEATING WITH ELONGATED VORT
CHANNELS AND TOPOGRAPHY PLAYING ROLE IN SHRA/TSRA ACTVTY AS LAPSE
RATES ARE QUITE LARGE. GRTST CONCENTRATION IN MTN TERRAIN AND SLOW
MVG. VFR CONDS WL DOMINATE THRU PERIOD WITH SOME XCPTNS...THRU 22Z
ISOLD/SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WL MAINLY BRG MVFR BUT VRY ISOLD IFR PSBL IN
TSRA DOWNPOUR AS KSLK AT 18Z. AFT 00Z...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVF DUE
TO RDTNL COOLING FOG IN MTN VLYS...ESP WHERE PCPN HAS FALLEN.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW





   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN

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