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October 2002, Week 2

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Subject:
From:
Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Sat, 12 Oct 2002 06:50:02 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
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Expires:200210122000;;628395
FPUS51 KBTV 120750
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2002


VTZ003-004-006-122000-
ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORLEANS VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND VT...NEWPORT VT...STOWE VT
350 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2002

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SOUTHEAST WIND
5 TO 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO
10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE
OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY...ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOW 35 TO 40. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.COLUMBUS DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER. HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID
20S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOW IN THE LOWER
30S AND HIGH IN THE UPPER 40S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 30S AND HIGH IN THE UPPER
40S.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID 30S AND HIGH NEAR 50.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 120558
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
158 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2002

CURRENTLY...LARGE AREA OF -RA COVERING SOUTH HALF OF CWA DRIFTING
SLOWLY NORTH. SOME AREAS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH MAY EXCEED 0.50 INCHES
FOR THIS EVENT. TEMPS ONCE AGAIN VERY MILD FOR MID-OCTOBER AND
HOLDING STEADY AREA WIDE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...ALL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES COASTAL SYSTEM TO
PASS OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. WILL BUMP POPS
UP TO CATEGORICAL SOUTH...AND TAPER TO THE NORTH...AS GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 305-310K THROUGH 15-18Z CENTRAL AND SOUTH. MOIST
SUB-TROPICAL PLUME CONTINUES TO RIDE OVER WESTERN NOSE OF STUBBORN
1033 HPA ANTICYCLONE OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES. OTHER FACTORS ARGUING
FOR THIS SCENARIO ARE A DEFORMATION AXIS FORMING OVER AREA WITH
COOLING TOPS IN LATEST IR IMAGERY ON NW SIDE OF PRECIP BAND. SOME
850 HPA FGEN AND PVA FROM WEAK 500 HPA SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY ALSO
EVIDENT. SYSTEM LIFTS OUT TONIGHT...AND WILL HOLD ON TO ONLY A SMALL
LINGERING POP SE. HOWEVER...NO APPRECIABLE AIRMASS CHANGE WITH COOL
MOIST MARINE AIR REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER MOST OF AREA. AS A
RESULT...WITH STAY WITH PERSISTENCE AND GO WITH ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT MINS ONCE AGAIN.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ADVERTISED TO CROSS AREA
LATE SUNDAY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN IDEA OF INCREASING POPS WEST TO
EAST DURING AFTERNOON. SYSTEM CLIPPING RIGHT ALONG...AND WILL END
POPS EVERYWHERE BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY ON
BLUSTERY NW FLOW. TEMPS SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HARD
FREEZE APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT NEARLY ALL AREAS SAVE PERHAPS
GRAND ISLE COUNTY AND IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE...WITH 1026 HPA HIGH
DIRECTLY OVER AREA BY 12Z TUE...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SFC TDS IN
THE 15 TO 20F RANGE. ALL IN ALL THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO
FAR.

AFTERWARDS...LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS TUE NT/WED. IF THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT...A
RATHER BLUSTERY...COLD AND WET DAY IN STORE FOR WED. SEASONABLY COOL
THEREAFTER...WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER GREAT LAKES HOLDING
STATIONARY...AND AREA UNDER BROAD WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.

.BTV...NONE.

JMG








FXUS61 KBTV 120209
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1008 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2002

RADAR LOOP SHOWING RAIN MOVG INTO SOUTHERN ADDISON COUNTY AT TIME...
SO WILL MOVE THIS ZONE TO THE SOUTHERN VT ZONE GROUPINGS OVERNIGHT.
RADAR LOOP SHOWING THIS PRECIP BAND MOVG MAINLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF VT...AND NOT MAKING ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION. HAVE ALSO RAISED THE MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN SOME OF THE
ZONES...AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

.BTV...NONE.

WGH






FXUS61 KBTV 111743
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
142 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2002

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE SOUTHWEST HAS
BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY.  FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO IT THAT SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  NORTHERN EXTENT MAY BE AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH
CENTRAL VERMONT TONIGHT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MID SHIFT IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND ORANGE
COUNTIES.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE SAME READINGS AS LAST NIGHT/S LOWS.

A SIMILAR SCENARIO SHOULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY WITH RESPECT TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES.  WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...PRODUCING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO
TODAY/S HIGHS.  ESSENTIALLY READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S.  GOING FORECAST HAS A MENTION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT ON SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS
IDEA.  QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.  EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
THE SAME AS TONIGHT/S READINGS.

MAIN COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.  ALTHOUGH
TREND IS FOR MAIN DYNAMICS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...UPPER TROUGH DOES GO NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE REGION.  SURFACE
COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH OF A LIFTING MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION.  THIS MAY BE
A SITUATION WHERE THE DURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT THAT LONG
OF A PERIOD...AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT...BUT
NONETHELESS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.  SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT.  WILL MENTION SHOWERS
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  THIS IS IMPORTANT
BECAUSE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
COLDER AIR ALOFT LAGS TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN MOISTURE.  SO FEEL ALL
THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE IN LIQUID FORM.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ON COLUMBUS DAY
AND THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A NOTICEABLY COOLER DAY.  GOING FORECAST OF
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 LOOKS REAL GOOD AND
WILL NOT CHANGE AT THIS TIME.  HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.  A SLOW WARMING TREND IS ALSO
EXPECTED.  STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY
AS UPPER TROUGH BECOMES RATHER AMPLIFIED OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.  THIS WILL HELP TO TAP DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SPREAD IT NORTHWARD.  INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME SUGGEST BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWARD AND COMBINED WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD HELP TO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE AREA.  GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL.  DRIER WEATHER THEN
RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WORK ZONES IN ALBWRKCWF BY 300 PM.

EVENSON

.BTV...NONE.







   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

234
ASUS51 KBTV 121005
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2002

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-121100-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    55  46  71 E7        30.32F
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  50  47  89 CALM      30.40S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    49  49 100 CALM      30.38S
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     49  49 100 CALM      30.37F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    54  48  82 E9G16     30.31R
SPRINGFIELD    LGT RAIN  52  50  93 CALM      30.36S
BENNINGTON     RAIN      55  50  83 E10G23    30.25R
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX



                        LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
               [1]Lyndon State College Meteorology Home Page
                      12:00PM, Friday October 11, 2002
                    STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Jill Gilardi
       ** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**

   Friday: Showers and sprinkles will end during the morning hours and
   skies will remain mostly cloudy during the afternoon. Winds will be
   light from the south at 5-10 mph and temperatures will be in upper 50s
   to around 60.

   Friday Night: A chance for showers or sprinkles otherwise mostly
   cloudy. Temperatures will be in upper 40s and winds will diminish from
   the south.

   Saturday: Expect another dreary, cloudy day with a rising chance for
   showers or sprinkles. Winds will gust from the southeast at 5-15 mph
   and temperatures will be in the upper 50s.

   Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy and mild for this time of year with low
   temperatures in the upper 40s, which will be about 10 degrees above
   average.

                             Extended Forecast

   Sunday: Anticipate mostly cloudy skies and the chance for rain during
   the afternoon and into the evening hours. Temperatures will rise to
   the mid-upper 50s.

   Monday: Have a heavier jacket handy on Columbus Day because it will
   feel chilly with temperatures in the upper 40s. Mostly cloudy skies
   will dominate once again.

   Tuesday: Partly sunny but cool with highs in the upper 40s.

                            Forecast Discussion

   Cloud cover has been the main story for Vermonters. Today will be the
   second day in a row that we will be locked under the clouds and the
   outlook for sunshine does not look promising until Tuesday. Some rain
   has been associated with the clouds with the heaviest activity still
   remaining to our south. A storm system edging towards the Middle
   Atlantic did spark off a few showers to the north. As of 9:30 a.m.
   Greensboro picked up .02 of rain, Sutton and West Danville accumulated
   .04, St. Johnsbury added .11 to surfaces, Waterford received .20 and
   Northfield picked up .22. Showers will be off and on this evening and
   tomorrow with an additional chance on Sunday. If its not raining, it
   will be cloudy. Clouds will help keep the overnight temperatures
   warmer than they should be for this time of year which means we will
   not have to worry about frost in the immediate future.

References

   1. http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/

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