Expires:202306271500;;834577
FPUS51 KBTV 270717
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
314 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023
VTZ018-271500-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
314 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023
.TODAY...Numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms. Some
thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Highs in the lower 70s.
South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers with isolated
thunderstorms until midnight, then scattered showers after
midnight. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall until
midnight. Lows in the lower 60s. South winds around 10 mph.
Chance of rain 70 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Numerous showers. Scattered thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in the
afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s. South winds around 10 mph.
Chance of rain 70 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers and scattered thunderstorms. Some
thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Lows in the upper 50s.
Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 80 percent.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs around
70. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain
50 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 60s.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain
60 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in
the lower 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.SUNDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain
70 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 60s.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid
70s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
$$
Expires:202306271100;;843284
ASUS41 KBTV 271030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2023
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-271100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON MOCLDY 69 65 86 S5 29.66S TC 21
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 65 63 93 CALM 29.75S TC 18
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 66 64 93 CALM 29.70F TC 19
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 65 63 93 MISG 29.70F TC 18
LYNDONVILLE* CLOUDY 64 62 94 CALM 29.75S TC 18
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 64 64 100 CALM 29.69R FOG TC 18
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 68 65 90 SE8 29.70R TC 20
SPRINGFIELD MOCLDY 67 65 93 CALM 29.73R TC 19
HIGHGATE* N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG N/A
NEWPORT* FAIR 65 64 94 E3 29.74R TC 19
BENNINGTON MOCLDY 64 62 93 CALM 29.68R TC 18
ISLAND POND* N/A 63 N/A N/A E5 N/A TC 17
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 61 N/A N/A MISG N/A TC 16
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 68 66 94 S6 N/A TC 20
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 68 66 94 S16 N/A TC 20
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 68 66 94 S8 N/A TC 20
$$
Expires:No;;836659
FXUS61 KBTV 270804
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
404 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected
across the region this afternoon, some of which may become
strong to even locally severe across New York. Any strong storm
that develops will be capable of producing locally damaging
wind gusts and isolated large hail. Torrential rainfall could
also lead to ponding and localized flooding given the antecedent
rainfall. The region remains in an unsettled and wet pattern,
with most days bringing the chance for showers and
thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 356 AM EDT Tuesday...
* Scattered strong thunderstorms possible this afternoon,
capable of locally damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail
and torrential rainfall. A severe storm cannot be ruled out,
especially across NY ahead of a cold front.
A rinse and repeat scenario with our region remaining under the
influence of a vertically stacked low pressure system centered over
Lake Huron. PWATs of 1.5 to 1.8 inches are widespread across our
region, which is 90th percentile or higher according to the SPC
sounding climatology for the Albany, NY upper air site. One main
difference between today and Monday is that a cold/occluded front
will be approaching from the Midwest into western NY/PA. The broad
scale ascent, combined with 20-30 kt 0-6km bulk shear and surface
CAPE values of 1000 J/kg will be capable of producing isolated to
scattered strong storms with locally damaging wind gusts and
isolated large hail. An isolated severe storm with a damaging
downburst also cannot be ruled out. Given the relative proximity to
the cold/occluded front, areas west of I-87 have a higher likelihood
of seeing storms become strong or severe this afternoon. Hence, SPC
has included a Day 1 Marginal severe risk for areas west of I-87. At
this time, the severe threat for Wednesday appears to be lower than
today.
In addition, WPC also has a marginal flash flooding risk across much
of our CWA. The NERFC currently does not have any of our river
basins going into action or minor flood stage. But areas that
receive rounds of rain will have to be monitored more closely with
the upcoming forecast packages. Otherwise, really no change in the
tropical air mass with dew points remaining in the 60s. Locations
that get breaks of sunshine may see mixing down of drier air aloft
that may see dew points get into the 50s. Near surface winds will
mainly be from the south or southeast but turn to the west as the
cold/occluded front pushes across our western zones sometime on
Wednesday. That may also bring in some of the Quebec wildfire smoke
to our far western zones towards the tail end of the forecast
period.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 356 AM EDT Tuesday...A rather slow moving upper-level trough
will work its way across the region Wednesday night into Thursday.
The abundant moisture across the area, with PWATS around 1.5"
continues to support the threat for showers. Just as we've seen the
last couple of days, there will likely some showers with some
possible thunderstorms along with periods of drier weather. Low
temperatures Wednesday night will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s,
while highs on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 70s.
Unfortunately the humidity is not going anywhere, so it will
continue to feel rather sticky.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 356 AM EDT Tuesday...The unsettled weather pattern looks to
continue as one upper-level trough is replaced by another. On
Friday, some brief ridging looks to build in across the region
between systems. Despite this ridging, there is still a chance for
some showers given diurnal heating and boundary layer moisture. More
showers look to return for the weekend as the next upper trough
moves in, but only a chance of precipitation is in the forecast this
far out. Ensemble guidance, and well as some deterministic guidance,
is showing the potential for a pattern change next week with some
drier weather, but we will have to see if the guidance continues to
support that trend. Temperatures will generally be in upper 70s to
mid 80s for daytime highs, with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...Rounds of showers with embedded
thunderstorms will affect much of the region through the TAF
period. Cigs will start off as mostly VFR, becoming a mix of
MVFR to lower end VFR (4000-6000 ft) as the areal coverage of
showers and thunderstorms increase during the daytime hours.
Brief heavy downpours can also lead to a reduction in vsby to
3-5 SM. Winds will mostly be out of the SE or S at 5-10 kt,
though brief stronger gusts are possible with any thunderstorm
that develops.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening across the North Country. Given an
anomalously moist airmass currently in place, heavy rainfall is
expected with these storms as seen in previous days. Some places
have seen 1-3 inches of rain from heavier storms in recent days
and should some of these thunderstorms move over our climate
sites, records may be broken not only today but also in coming
days.
Precip Records
Date KBTV KMPV KMSS KPBG KSLK
06-27 1.45|1970 0.75|2002 1.04|1970 1.45|1970 1.86|2002
06-28 1.50|1892 1.57|2010 1.32|2010 1.23|2016 2.12|1994
06-29 1.79|2017 2.43|1982 1.90|2017 1.83|2017 2.19|2017
06-30 1.75|1973 3.33|1973 0.80|1958 1.65|1973 1.50|1998
07-01 2.54|1998 1.35|2017 0.88|2017 1.28|1976 1.82|1968
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Chai
NEAR TERM...Chai
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Chai
CLIMATE...WFO BTV
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