Expires:202207152000;;279645
FPUS51 KBTV 150722
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
319 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022
VTZ018-152000-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
319 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022
.TODAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Northwest winds around
10 mph this morning, becoming light and variable.
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear until midnight, then becoming mostly
cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Light and variable winds.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds
around 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. South
winds around 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds
around 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s.
.MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s. Lows in the mid 60s.
Chance of rain 50 percent.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the
lower 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 60s.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the
lower 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
$$
Expires:202207151100;;288296
ASUS41 KBTV 151030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2022
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-151100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON PTCLDY 56 54 93 CALM 30.14R
MONTPELIER FOG 52 48 86 CALM 30.19R VSB<1/4
MORRISVILLE FOG 51 49 92 CALM 30.16R VSB 1/4
LYNDONVILLE* FOG 50 49 98 CALM 30.16S VSB<1/4
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 52 52 100 CALM 30.15S
RUTLAND* CLEAR 51 51 100 SE5 30.17R
SPRINGFIELD PTCLDY 52 52 100 CALM 30.16R FOG
HIGHGATE* FAIR 56 55 96 CALM 30.13S
NEWPORT* FAIR 52 50 92 S3 30.15S FOG
BENNINGTON CLEAR 50 49 96 CALM 30.16R
ISLAND POND* N/A 50 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 45 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 48 N/A N/A CALM N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 54 N/A N/A NW20 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 59 55 88 S10 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;280758
FXUS61 KBTV 150748
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
348 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will slowly build across the region this
weekend, and outside a stray shower or storm across southern
counties Saturday afternoon, mainly dry weather with seasonably
warm summertime weather is expected. The next chance of more
widespread, significant rainfall occurs by Monday as low
pressure advances east from the Great Lakes. Thereafter, muggy
and warm to hot weather makes a return to the region for the
middle and later portions of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 318 AM EDT Friday...Outstanding mid-summer weather is on
tap for today as surface high pressure bridges east from the
Great Lakes. Outside a few passing fair weather clouds, mainly
sunny skies are expected under light west to northwesterly
breezes as high temperatures top out from the mid 70s to lower
80s. Quiet conditions continue tonight with near calm winds and
nil PoPs. Scattered to broken high level cloudiness currently
across the upper Midwest/western Ontario will slide into the
region overnight on mid to upper level northwesterly flow, so
have gone a few degrees above MOS guidance for minimum
temperatures offering values in the 50s in the mountains, and
from 55 to 60 in the broad valleys.
By Saturday a weak shortwave trough aloft will track across the
region by the afternoon hours. While most areas should remain dry,
some of this morning's CAM output, namely the 00Z HRRR and to some
extent the ARW and HRDPS do show the potential for a few/widely
scattered showers/isolated storms across our southern counties
during the afternoon hours. Other solutions are less bullish, and
they may end up being correct given relatively dry lower levels.
However, given the variability in this morning's output, I've
offered a middle of the road solution for now showing a 15-20%
chance for a few showers/storms during this period, mainly along and
south of an Adirondacks High Peaks to Montpelier line. Temperatures
warm slightly from today's values - mainly lower to mid 80s under
modest humidity levels.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 347 AM EDT Friday...High pressure remains in control Saturday
night and Sunday. Should see fair and quiet wx conditions Saturday
night with near normal mid- July low temperatures in the lower 60s
for the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys, and mid-upper 50s
elsewhere across the forecast area. Developing shortwave ridging and
light SW low-level flow will both contribute to very warm and more
humid conditions for Sunday. With 850mb temperatures moderating to
+15C to +17C Sunday afternoon, should see afternoon highs in the
mid-upper 80s in most valley locations, including near 88F at BTV
and MSS. Humidity levels will also be higher than on Saturday, as
2-m dewpoints rise into the lower 60s. While not oppressive, it will
be noticeably more humid. General lack of synoptic
support/subsidence aloft should preclude any convective chances, but
included a slight chance (PoP ~20%) across the higher terrain of
s-central VT and in the Adirondacks during the period afternoon
heating period on Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 347 AM EDT Friday...Building heat and humidity will be the
primary wx story heading into next week, with the potential for 2-3
days of 90+ degree high temperatures mid week in some valley
locations. Still a ways out, but may ultimately require
potential heat headlines based on current indications for the
Wednesday/Thursday time frame.
Leading up to the mid-week period, we'll first be watching a
shortwave trough expected to translate from the Ohio Valley newd
across NY/New England on Monday. This idea is supported by 00Z NWP
operational runs of the ECMWF/Canadian/GFS, with timing differences
the main discrepancy between the models. S-SW low-mid level
flow in advance of this system will bring a surge of higher
precipitable water values newd into NY/New England, with PWAT
values of 1.8-2" possible across the region on Monday per the
00Z GFS and Canadian. As is typical with high PWAT air masses,
modest mid-level lapse rates (around 6C/km) are expected. This
will limit overall instability, but approaching synoptic forcing
and high PWAT values should support widespread showers and some
embedded thunderstorms with the potential for brief/locally
heavy rainfall. Antecedent soil conditions are relatively dry,
but we'll continue to monitor this system for localized heavy
rain potential, with the highest PoPs (50- 60% currently) late
Monday into Monday night. Should see high temperatures on Monday
83-88F depending on amount of (partial) sunshine in between
rounds of showers and possible t-storm activity.
Once Monday's mid-level trough passes, low-level
thermal/theta-e ridging builds back strongly from the SW into
NY/New England, along with moisture advection likely bringing
dewpoints well into the 60s, which has been an infrequent
occurrence so far this summer. Have trended toward the higher
end of available guidance based on synoptic evolution, with
highs in the upper 80s on Tuesday, and then potentially into the
low 90s for Wednesday and possibly Thursday (depending on
timing of next shortwave trough/cold front on day 7/8 timeframe).
Likely looking at heat index values in the mid-90s - especially
on Wednesday - and will need to monitor for possible heat
headlines as we get closer to the event. Lower chances for
diurnally driven thunderstorm activity Tue-Wednesday, and then
potentially more organized/widespread showers and thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon with next frontal system.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Mainly VFR through the period. Only
exception will be patchy MVFR/IFR vsbys in mist/fog at
KEFK/KMPV/KSLK through about 11Z, most prevalent at KEFK.
Otherwise expecting light winds this morning, trending
west/northwesterly from 04-08 kts this afternoon (southeasterly
at KPBG due to lake breezes) with SKC to a few fair wx cumulus
with bases from 045-060 AGL. After 00Z winds trend light once
again with scattered high clouds, mainly above 200 AGL.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Likely
TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...JMG
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