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April 2014, Week 1

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Subject:
From:
"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Wed, 2 Apr 2014 06:50:02 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
Parts/Attachments:
text/plain (178 lines)
Expires:201404022000;;041243
FPUS51 KBTV 020753
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014

VTZ006-022000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
353 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE MORNING. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. EAST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. 
$$

Expires:201404021100;;047634
ASUS41 KBTV 021030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED APR 02 2014
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-021100-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     SUNNY     39  28  64 S9        29.98R                  
MONTPELIER     SUNNY     37  28  70 SW5       30.04R                  
MORRISVILLE    SUNNY     39  26  59 S8        30.01S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     28  23  81 MISG      30.03R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      33  19  56 S9        30.04R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      39  31  73 E3        29.99S                  
RUTLAND*       MOSUNNY   36  28  75 SE14      30.02S                  
SPRINGFIELD    SUNNY     26  25  96 CALM      30.08R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      43  28  55 S9        29.95S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      37  15  41 S15       30.00S                  
BENNINGTON     SUNNY     38  29  70 VRB5      30.01R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     28 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     28 N/A N/A S6          N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     41  32  70 S15         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     36  32  87 SW14        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     34  30  86 SW6         N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;047823
FXUS61 KBTV 021049
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
649 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY ON FRIDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING RAIN TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION HAVE REMAINED MILD OVERNIGHT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF CLOUD
COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING WARMER EARLY THIS MORNING...HAVE OPTED TO GO ABOVE MOS
GUIDANCE IN MOST LOCATIONS FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD ENSEMBLE MOS MEANS FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT
TOO COOL WITH MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...SO HAVE USED A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND THE WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. GFS MOS GUIDANCE AGAIN LOOKS A BIT TOO COOL FOR MIN
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER 3
HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN THE MOS GUIDANCE AND HAVE RAISED MINS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE GFS MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALL THE
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOLDING OFF ON BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION
UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. THUS...HAVE
GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN ANTICIPATED WITH TWO
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR CWA BTWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND NEXT
TUES. FIRST SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
BAND OF MIXED PRECIP...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY 15Z SATURDAY.
PRIMARY SFC LOW PRES WL TRACKS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH WEAK SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG SFC COLD
FRNT ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT A COLD AND DAMP SATURDAY
WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE M/U 30S EASTERN/CENTRAL VT/NEK AND L/M
40S ELSEWHERE. BEST CHC FOR A LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION WL BE EAST
OF THE GREEN MTNS ON SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...QPF WL RANGE BTWN
0.10 TO 0.30 INCHES WITH NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO 90% FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BASED ON
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE NWP MODELS. WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR
CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S...GOOD
SUGARING WEATHER. NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH DEEP MOISTURE
WL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION BY TUES. ONCE AGAIN THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST A MAINLY COLD RAIN EVENT...WITH MAYBE SOME HIGH ELEVATION
WET SNOW ACRS THE DACKS. THIS SYSTEM WL HAVE BETTER DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AND 0.75" ACRS OUR
REGION. TEMPS WL DROP BACK INTO THE M/U 30S MTNS TO L/M 40S ON
TUESDAY WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WEAK SFC COLD FRNT CONTS TO MOVE ACRS OUR
TAF SITES WITH JUST A FEW SPOTTY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AND WIND SHIFT TO
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. THIS FRNT WL CONT TO MOVE ACRS OUR TAF SITES
THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE FAN FAIR ANTICIPATED. UPSTREAM SATL PICS
AND OBS SHOW SOME MVFR CIGS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH IS
PROGGED BY THE RAP13 TO IMPACT MSS/SLK. WL MENTION CIGS AROUND
2500 FEET THIS MORNING...WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND
ANTICIPATED BY 18Z TODAY. ALSO...WITH THE LLVL CAA AND LEFTOVER BL
MOISTURE I CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHC FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWER AT SLK TODAY BTWN 16-20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WL PREVAIL WITH SOUTH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING
AND WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FROM 06Z THURS THRU 00Z
SAT. NEXT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR TAF SITES BTWN 00Z SATURDAY AND 18Z
SAT WITH A BAND OF MIXED PRECIP...CHANGING TO RAIN BY SATURDAY
MORNINGS. MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VIS ANTICIPATED WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VIS
LIKELY AT MPV/SLK ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SLEET/SNOW
ACCUMULATION WL BE POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK. IN ADDITION...BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH AREAS
OF LLVL WS AND TURBULENCE POSSIBLE. LINGERING MAINLY MTN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY AT MPV/SLK.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

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