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SKIVT-L  September 2018, Week 3

SKIVT-L September 2018, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 16 Sep 2018 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (212 lines)

Expires:201809162000;;717469
FPUS51 KBTV 160731
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
328 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018


VTZ006-162000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
328 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.TODAY...Patchy dense fog this morning. Partly sunny. Highs in the
lower 80s. Light and variable winds. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Lows in
the lower 60s. Light and variable winds. 
.MONDAY...Patchy dense fog in the morning. Partly sunny. Highs in
the lower 80s. Light and variable winds, becoming south around
10 mph in the afternoon. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Lows
in the lower 60s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs in the mid
70s. West winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 60s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 50s. 
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs around 70. Chance of rain
60 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance of
rain 60 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. 

$$


Expires:201809161100;;724887
ASUS41 KBTV 161030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-161100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      67  63  87 CALM      30.18S                  
MONTPELIER     FOG       59  59 100 CALM      30.25R VSB 3/4          
MORRISVILLE    FOG       61  61 100 CALM      30.21S VSB 1/2          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     62  62 100 MISG      30.20R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       61  60  97 CALM      30.24S VSB 1/4          
MIDDLEBURY*      N/A     61  60  99 CALM      30.21R FOG              
RUTLAND*       FAIR      61  60  97 SE3       30.22S                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       61  61 100 CALM      30.22S VSB 1/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      64  64 100 CALM      30.19R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      61  61 100 SW3       30.22R                  
BENNINGTON     MOCLDY    59  57  93 CALM      30.23R FOG              
ISLAND POND*     N/A     59 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     55 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     61 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     63 N/A N/A NW22        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     72  68  88 S6G12       N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     70  68  94 S10         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     68  66  94 W1          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;720480
FXUS61 KBTV 160828
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
428 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will continue to bring unseasonably warm and 
dry weather to the region through Monday. A cold front will swing 
through the area Monday night into the first half of Tuesday with a 
wetting rainfall expected, mainly across the southern half of the 
forecast area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...Strong high pressure (590+ dm) 
continues across the area this morning and will persist through 
Monday afternoon along with unseasonably warm temperatures and 
modest humidity levels. A slight uptick in mid level moisture as
seen on this morning's 7.3 micron WV channel will drift slowly 
south today with little fanfare other than scattered cumulus 
clouds. I can't rule out a brief isolated shower this afternoon 
across the mountains as weak terrain flows foster summit level 
theta-e convergence. However, given broad subsidence beneath the
ridge and a modest capping inversion near 700 mb this will be 
the exception rather than the rule. Per model averaged 925 mb 
thermal progs high temperatures will run quite similar to 
yesterday and as such I leaned heavily toward bias-corrected 
guidance placing the most emphasis on the warmer members 
including the regional GEM and RAP13. This offers values ranging
from 81 to 86 in the mountains and 83-89 in the broader valleys
which will approach daily records in a few spots including 
Montpelier, VT and Massena, NY.

Quiet weather then continues for tonight under light winds and mild 
temperatures. Patchy mist/fog also a good bet in favored mountain 
hollows and eastern VT river valleys as lows bottom out in the upper 
50s to mid 60s with customary variability.

By Monday the surface reflection of the high edges east and allows a 
modest south to southwesterly return flow to develop over time. 
Skies should range from partly to mostly sunny through the first 
half of the day with increasing mid to high level cloud cover 
encroaching from the south and west later in the afternoon as the 
outer moisture from once Hurricane Florence approaches. Any 
showers/rainfall to hold off until after sunset. Highs to once again 
run quite similar to the past few days, perhaps a degree or two 
cooler given the afternoon higher clouds - mainly upper 70s to mid 
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Sunday...Remnants of tropical cyclone Florence
will be passing South of our forecast area Monday night and 
Tuesday. There will also be a low pressure and frontal system 
passing North of our region during that time. Earlier 
indications that these systems would phase have now been 
replaced with model solutions that show these systems remaining 
separate. As it turns out, our forecast area will probably end 
up in between the two low systems. Mainly our Southern Vermont 
zones will have rain, heavy at times. Will see plenty of cloud 
cover across the region though, therefore warm temps Mon night 
and a bit more mild on Tuesday are expected. Rainfall totals 
will range from just a few hundredths in the St Lawrence valley,
to about an inch across Southern Vermont. 

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 425 AM EDT Sunday...Quieter weather will return for 
Tuesday night through early Thursday as a ridge of surface high 
pressure will briefly be over the area. OVernight minimum 
temperatures may bring some frost to the colder spots in our 
forecast area with this cool air mass in place. Then for the 
Thursday through Friday timeframe another low pressure system 
approaches from the Great Lakes and passes north of our region. 
We may see some showers with this system. Depending on how this 
plays out, could have some gusty winds on Friday. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...VFR and light winds less than 6 kts through
the forecast period as strong high pressure remains atop the
area. Only exception will be patchy IFR/LIFR br/fg at KMPV/KSLK
and possible brief MVFR/br at KPBG/KRUT in the 06-12Z time frame
this morning. Outside fog, generally SKC expected with just some
passing mid level clouds at times with bases from 050-100 AGL.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...93
NEAR TERM...93
SHORT TERM...49 
LONG TERM...49 
AVIATION...93

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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January 2002, Week 5
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