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March 2016, Week 3

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Subject:
From:
"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Sun, 20 Mar 2016 06:50:02 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
Parts/Attachments:
text/plain (196 lines)
Expires:201603202000;;336025
FPUS51 KBTV 200758
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016


VTZ006-202000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
356 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH
UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 17. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SNOW LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LITTLE
OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
LOWS IN THE MID 20S. 
.THURSDAY...RAIN OR SNOW OR SLEET LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID
40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. 

$$


Expires:201603201100;;342350
ASUS41 KBTV 201030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-201100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      19   4  51 N3        30.25R                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      13   3  64 CALM      30.21S                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      12   7  80 CALM      30.23R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     15   8  73 MISG      30.20R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      13   2  60 CALM      30.20R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      16   9  73 CALM      30.22S                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      16   7  67 CALM      30.19S                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      15   8  73 S3        30.20R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      13   8  78 CALM      30.27R                  
NEWPORT*         N/A    N/A N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
BENNINGTON     FAIR      17   9  70 CALM      30.16R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     10 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A      7 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     16 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      9 N/A N/A S6G17       N/A  WCI  -1          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     25   9  50 NE13        N/A  WCI  13          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     27  10  50 N15         N/A  WCI  15          

$$


Expires:No;;338225
FXUS61 KBTV 200837
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
437 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNING DURING THE WEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TREND
MILDER BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
EASTWARD TODAY. WE WILL START OUT DRY AND CLEAR WITH SOME CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY MID
TO UPPER 30S. WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OUTSIDE THE
BENCHMARK TONIGHT...SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL MAKE IT INTO
OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. ONLY VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THE LAST COUPLE AS WE
HAVE SOME CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET DURING MONDAY AS
OFFSHORE STORM REMAINS GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION, WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGS VARIABLE CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES/SHSN. KEPT LARGELY IN LINE WITH THESE PRIOR
TRENDS SHOWING HIGHS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20. BY LATER TUESDAY AN APPROACHING NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A THREAT OF
LIGHT RAINS/SNOWS TO OUR NORTHERN NEW COUNTIES TOWARD EARLY
EVENING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THEN
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A 3-6 HOUR WINDOW
OF LIGHT SNOWS, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE DEEPER VALLEY
FLOORS. FAIRLY ROBUST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
SHADOWING EFFECTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN/LOWER CT RIVER VALLEYS, WITH
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS THE SLV
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HERE LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

THEREAFTER, AN INCREASINGLY COMPLEX PATTERN WILL EVOLVE AS THE
POLAR FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND STALL OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY
THURSDAY AS DEEPENING CENTRAL U.S. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. SOME CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ON
STRENGTH, TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AMONG THIS MORNING'S
GLOBAL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN RELATIVE STABILITY OF THE GFS SOLUTIONS
FOR THE PAST 2 DAYS WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS IDEA, AND RESULTANT
THERMAL PROFILES ACCORDINGLY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A DECENT
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOWS/MIXED PRECIPITATION/LIGHT ICING DURING
A PORTION OF THIS PERIOD AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW RIDES ATOP
THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
BY LATER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, MUCH MILDER AIR SHOULD ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO TREND ALL LIQUID. A VERY TRICKY FORECAST
HOWEVER, WITH LARGE DISPARITIES AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WE'LL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT
ANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE WE GET INTO THE RANGE OF THE HIGHER-RES
SOLUTIONS PROVIDE BETTER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE RULE WITH VFR SKC
CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS WILL STILL BE AROUND 6-10 KTS THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF THE OVERNIGHT BUT BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON - 00Z WED...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z WED ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES

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