Expires:202107162000;;947324
FPUS51 KBTV 160706
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
301 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021
VTZ018-162000-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
301 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021
.TODAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the
mid 70s. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph, becoming northwest 10 to
15 mph this afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows around 60. North winds around
10 mph until midnight, becoming light and variable.
.SATURDAY...Cloudy. A chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs
around 70. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Periods of rain. Lows around 60. East winds
around 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
.SUNDAY...Rain likely. Highs in the lower 70s. East winds around
10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows around 60.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 70s.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 60s.
.TUESDAY...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs
in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 50s.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 60s.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.
$$
Expires:202107161100;;956334
ASUS41 KBTV 161030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 2021
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-161100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON MOCLDY 77 68 73 S7 29.87R
MONTPELIER MOCLDY 74 66 76 S12 29.95S
MORRISVILLE MOCLDY 73 66 78 S6 29.88R
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 73 66 78 MISG 29.89R
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 70 65 85 E3 29.93S
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 74 67 77 S8 29.92R
RUTLAND* MOCLDY 74 67 78 S6 29.95R
SPRINGFIELD MOCLDY 66 65 96 CALM 29.95S
HIGHGATE* DRIZZLE 76 71 87 CALM 29.86R
NEWPORT* MOCLDY 70 68 92 S5 29.89F
BENNINGTON MOCLDY 75 66 73 SW6 29.98R
ISLAND POND* N/A 72 N/A N/A SW6 N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 66 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 72 N/A N/A SW1 N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 66 N/A N/A SW29 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 75 75 100 S9 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 75 68 78 SW17 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 75 70 83 NW1 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;950811
FXUS61 KBTV 160812
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
412 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning will be
followed by cooler and briefly dry weather. Then rain chances
increase with widespread rain now expected by late Saturday, with
steadiest and heaviest rainfall over southern counties. After drying
out and warming up gradually from Sunday into Monday, a seasonably
strong cold front will arrive on Tuesday to promote organized
showers and thunderstorms. with more showers possible, with drier
and cooler weather arriving in its wake. Temperatures will be near
or a bit below normal during the upcoming week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 411 AM EDT Friday...An area of decaying showers is
currently exiting the northern Adirondacks. Model soundings in
this area show meager CAPE and high cloud bases with abundant
dry air supportive of weak shower activity, with perhaps some
gusty winds but nothing hazardous expected. Slightly better
moisture and instability is currently over the eastern Champlain
Valley, so showers could get a little stronger and have
maintained a slight chance of thunder with this activity through
just the next few hours across northern Vermont. These showers
are associated with a piece of relatively strong upper level
energy moving eastward across the North Country early this
morning, which also has promoted moderately strong south to
southwest winds across the Champlain Valley and higher terrain.
After sunrise, a cold front oriented from southwest to northeast
over eastern Lake Ontario towards Ottawa will sweep through
northern New York and northwestern Vermont. In response will be
weak cool air advection on west winds, which will be locally
gusty but the flow is not particularly strong. Temperatures will
also be suppressed by gray skies, with stratus and
stratocumulus expected, as water vapor imagery shows moist air
lingering behind the front. Rapid clearing will then occur late
in the day, which will set the stage for potential drier air
lagging behind. Farther south and east areas, including much of
eastern Vermont, partial sunshine is expected. That heating will
lead to just enough instability to work with some additional
upper level support to develop a few low-topped showers with a
rumble of thunder possible. In these areas, such as the lower
Connecticut River Valley, temperatures will recover a bit better
with 80-85 readings anticipated. With light winds and drying
overnight, will need to watch for areas of fog developing
especially where it rains this afternoon. Lows across the North
Country will be cooler with mid-50s to low 60s in most places.
For Saturday, we will see the approach of a frontal wave
currently in the vicinity of Missouri that is now progged by all
available model guidance to move northeastward into our area as
we move through the day. Broad lift and warm air advection will
promote increasing coverage of showers that will transition
into a stratiform, wetting rain that will spread into southern
portions of the region by evening. Sufficiently dry low level air across
northern areas may help keep these areas rain-free for the
daytime hours, but have at least slight chances advancing up
through the Northeast Kingdom late in the afternoon. Lowering
and thickening cloud cover associated with this system will mean
temperatures likely will be warmer as you go north, with highs
near 80 by the International Border and low to mid 70s in the
Adirondacks and southern Vermont.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 344 AM EDT Friday...Better consensus among 00Z NWP guidance
suite concerning rainfall potential for Saturday night into Sunday.
Overall, 00Z GFS, NAM, and ECMWF indicate a more amplified mid-level
trough and more well-defined surface frontal wave tracking ewd
across Central NY Saturday evening, and eventually exiting ewd
into the Gulf of Maine during Sunday afternoon. The more
amplified flow pattern is expected to bring better nwd moisture
advection and a period of stronger frontogenetic and large-scale
forcing, especially during the overnight hours Saturday night.
Both the 00Z NAM and GFS indicate PW values of 1.7-1.8"
advecting nwd in advance of the mid- level trough during
Saturday night. Have increased PoPs to 70-90% (highest in south-
central VT) as well as QPF, and indicated a stratiform rainfall
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Storm total rainfall will
range from 1-1.5" across central/s-central VT into Essex County
NY, 0.5-1" rainfall across the remainder of the northern
Adirondacks into the Champlain Valley, and generally <0.5" nwd
toward the International Border. Widespread cloud cover will
contribute to rather uniform low temperatures in the upper 50s
to lower 60s, with highs on Sunday low-mid 70s south, and closer
to 80F across the northern Champlain Valley and St. Lawrence
Valley where prospects exist for partial breaks and afternoon
sunshine. Should see quieter conditions Sunday night as mid-
level trough departs ewd. However, narrow surface ridge axis and
moist soil conditions suggest favorable conditions for fog
formation as skies clear Sunday night. Low temperatures Sunday
night once again in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 344 AM EDT Friday...Highest rainfall chances during the
extended forecast period occur on Tuesday (PoPs 60-70%). Global
deterministic guidance continues to indicate an intensifying mid-
upper level ridge across the Intermountain West. In response, strong
nwly flow across central Canada and embedded shortwave troughs will
tend to reinforce the mid-upper level trough across the eastern
Great Lakes into New England. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF continue to
show the most robust upper jet streak and mid-level trough axis
moving into our region from sern Ontario on Tuesday, with the
potential for widespread shower activity and embedded
thunderstorms, aided by potentially steep mid-level lapse rates
in the nwly flow regime. Lower chances for showers exist
Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday of next week. The overall upper
flow pattern favors temperatures near seasonal averages with
modest humidity levels. Highs Monday/Tuesday should reach the
lower 80s in valley sections, and generally 75-80F for
Wednesday/Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday... An area of scattered showers will cause
brief low visibilities at SLK, PBG, and BTV between 06Z-09Z,
and showers are also possible at EFK and MPV mainly from 12-15Z
in advance of a diffuse cold front. Strong flow aloft ahead of
the front is causing some low level wind shear which is
indicated at some terminals, and some of these winds are mixing
to the surface with periods of gusty south or southwest winds.
The front will cause winds to gradually shift to westerly and
northwesterly in the 12Z to 18Z period and will tend to diminish
by 00Z.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Kutikoff
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