Expires:202107152000;;894945
FPUS51 KBTV 150706
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
302 AM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021
VTZ018-152000-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
302 AM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021
.TODAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Light and variable
winds, becoming southwest 10 to 15 mph this afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy and breezy. Lows in the upper 60s.
Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph, increasing to
45 mph after midnight.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. A chance of showers in the morning, then
showers likely in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s. Southwest
winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph, becoming west with
gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with showers likely. Lows in the
lower 60s. North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
Chance of rain 30 percent.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the lower 70s. Light and variable winds.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 60s.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 70s.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 60s.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 70s.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 70s.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows around 60.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the lower 70s.
$$
Expires:202107151100;;903945
ASUS41 KBTV 151030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU JUL 15 2021
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-151100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 69 68 96 SW6 30.10R FOG
MONTPELIER FOG 63 62 97 NW3 30.17R VSB<1/4
MORRISVILLE FOG 64 63 96 S3 30.13R VSB<1/4
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 67 66 97 MISG 30.10S
LYNDONVILLE* FOG 65 64 97 CALM 30.16R VSB<1/4
MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 64 64 99 CALM 30.11S
RUTLAND* MOCLDY 64 64 100 SE5 30.13S FOG
SPRINGFIELD FOG 66 66 100 CALM 30.12S VSB 1/2
HIGHGATE* FAIR 67 65 96 CALM 30.09R
NEWPORT* CLOUDY 60 58 92 CALM 30.13S FOG
BENNINGTON FOG 63 63 100 CALM 30.13S VSB<1/4
ISLAND POND* N/A 59 N/A N/A N1 N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 61 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 59 N/A N/A CALM N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 63 N/A N/A CALM N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 68 68 100 S14 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;897110
FXUS61 KBTV 150758
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
358 AM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing sunshine will allow for very warm conditions
today, with some valley high temperatures approaching 90
degrees under the influence of a ridge of high pressure to our
south. A weak cold front will pass through on Friday with
only a few showers expected, resulting in decreasing chances of
precipitation and seasonable temperatures through Monday. A stronger
front will arrive on Tuesday with more showers possible, with drier
and cooler weather arriving in its wake.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 356 AM EDT Thursday...Picture perfect summer radiation
fog conditions are in place early this morning over the North
Country with calm winds and damp air trapped below a nocturnal
inversion. Nearly all locations are near 100% relative humidity,
allowing for patchy to dense fog to prevail. Given the strong
July sun angle and surface high pressure, this fog will burn off
quickly this morning in most areas and temperatures will soar
from their cool start. Noticed that forecast soundings depict
common mixing depth to 850 millibars, and sunshine with light
winds supports maximizing temperatures relative to the air mass
aloft. While very warm, the progged temperatures are not quite
as hot as we have seen earlier this season, with temperatures
likely to top out near 90. Also a question to how low the dew
points fall, as typically southerly flow, even fairly light,
will support maintaining moderate humidity. However, the whole
column of air aloft is very dry today, so it would help see at
least somewhat lower dew points falling from the mid to low 60s
in most areas during the afternoon.
Late tonight into early Friday, the pressure gradient will pick up
as 1007 millibar surface low pressure over Quebec makes its closest
approach, dragging a cold front into our area. This will cause
southerly winds to pick up, including 20 MPH winds over Lake
Champlain and a period of 30 MPH winds in the mountains. Also will
need to keep an eye on convection approaching from the west this
evening. However, instability due to the dry air in place will be
relatively low so if the storms arrive after dark as expected they
will quickly trend weaker. Otherwise, the main story for tonight is
warm conditions due to the aforementioned southerly flow, as
temperatures will be slow to fall from their daytime values. Should
see lows mainly in the mid 60s to low 70s.
The latest model guidance continues to back off considerably on
precipitation chances for Friday with upper level energy displaced
from the surface boundary that wants to quickly surge southward
through the North Country. Several factors are working against
shower activity. The front will shift winds from southerly to
westerly and take away surface convergence that could have served as
a trigger for any daytime convection. It will also limit surface
heating, with warmest afternoon conditions consisting of
temperatures near 80 and dew points in the mid 60s. Finally, a
frontal inversion will limit areal coverage of showers that could
manage to develop during the daytime hours and help stabilize the
atmosphere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 356 AM EDT Thursday...A frontal wave tracking ewd from the
southern Great Lakes ewd into southern new England will be the main
focus for potential precipitation during the period, with the
highest rainfall chances focused during the daylight hrs Saturday.
Surface quasi-stationary front is expected to be draped just to our
south Friday night and Saturday, from central NY ewd into MA. Should
see a relatively quiet period Friday night with weak surface high
pressure across sern Ontario and light N-NW flow across much of nrn
NY and VT. As sfc frontal wave approaches, should see some
increasing cloud cover across southern areas, and a chance of rain
showers into the southern Adirondacks and south-central VT toward
daybreak Saturday. Lows Friday night will be near normal for mid-
July, and generally in the low-mid 60s.
Of the deterministic guidance, official forecast most closely
follows that of the 00Z GFS, bringing 40-60% chance of rain showers
during the day Saturday, with the highest PoP values across s-
central VT closest to low-level frontal zone. The 00Z ECMWF appeared
much too intense and slow with the frontal wave, while the 00Z NAM
keeps any shower activity south of our forecast area. Based on
current trends, appears 0.2-0.4" rainfall is possible across s-
central VT, with lower totals to the north. Winds should remain
light throughout Saturday.
Lingering positive tilt 700-500mb trough axis to our west will keep
lower chances for rain showers (30-40%) Saturday night through
Sunday, but appears this activity will not be particularly
organized, and still focused across southern sections of our
forecast area. Temperatures will be close to 30-year climo mean with
Saturday night lows in the low-mid 60s, and Sunday's highs back into
the lower 80s for valley areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 356 AM EDT Thursday...With amplifying mid-level ridge across
the Intermountain West, overall tendency will be to reinforce mid-
level trough across the nern CONUS with several shortwave troughs in
NW flow moving from Ontario into NY and northern New England during
the extended forecast period. Most intense shortwave trough passage
currently appears to be Tuesday night into Wednesday, when showers
are likely to be most widespread. That said, weakly cyclonic flow
Monday and Tuesday across our region may bring isolated to scattered
daytime showers, and included 30-40% PoPs...though duration of any
rainfall should be brief in most locations. Overall upper flow
pattern should keep temperatures near seasonal levels, with daytime
highs in the low-mid 80s Monday and Tuesday. Potential cloud cover
and more widespread showers on Wednesday may keep temperatures
several degrees cooler, and generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
All in all, no hazardous weather is foreseen during the period.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Mainly VFR except in areas of fog where
some LIFR conditions will be observed over the next six hours.
Dense radiation fog has already developed at SLK, with only BR
at EFK. BR or FG should develop at MPV as well, although timing
is still in question. After 12Z, improving conditions with no
ceilings or visibility restrictions expected. Winds light
southerly approaching 10 knots during this period. An
approaching cold front could spark showers and thunderstorms in
the vicinity of MSS after 00Z.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Kutikoff
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