Expires:201808032000;;472263
FPUS51 KBTV 030743
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
340 AM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018
VTZ006-032000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
340 AM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018
.TODAY...Cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms. A slight
chance of showers this morning, then a chance of showers this
afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Light and variable winds. Chance
of rain 50 percent.
.TONIGHT...Showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows in the
lower 60s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 90 percent.
.SATURDAY...Cloudy with showers in the morning, then partly sunny
with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in
the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Light and variable winds.
Chance of rain 90 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. Light and variable
winds.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Light and variable
winds.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 70s.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows around 60.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.
$$
Expires:201808031100;;479034
ASUS41 KBTV 031030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI AUG 03 2018
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-031100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON MOCLDY 73 67 81 S6 30.10R
MONTPELIER FAIR 66 66 100 CALM 30.17R
MORRISVILLE FAIR 65 65 100 CALM 30.14R
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 67 66 97 MISG 30.11S
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 65 64 97 CALM 30.17R FOG
MIDDLEBURY* RAIN 71 67 88 CALM 30.14R
RUTLAND* FAIR 68 65 90 SE6 30.15R
SPRINGFIELD MOCLDY 66 66 100 CALM 30.16R FOG
HIGHGATE* FAIR 69 68 98 S3 30.09S
NEWPORT* FAIR 65 64 98 CALM 30.14R
BENNINGTON MOCLDY 66 65 96 CALM 30.16R FOG
ISLAND POND* N/A 64 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 63 N/A N/A MISG N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 66 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 61 N/A N/A W12 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 73 70 88 S9 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 73 68 83 SW8 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 72 72 100 S5 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;472330
FXUS61 KBTV 030745
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
345 AM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong Bermuda high pressure will maintain warm and humid
weather across the area through the middle of next week. Rounds
of showers and a few thunderstorms will affect a good portion of
the area today into tonight, especially from the Adirondacks
east and south. Some of the rainfall could be quite heavy with
an enhanced risk of flash flooding across southern Vermont
tonight.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...Another warm and humid morning across
the forecast area as of 300 am as a well established, deep
subtropical moisture plume remains in place from the
southeastern states north through the mid-Atlantic and
northeast. Light, spotty shower activity has been rippling
through this band, though most spots have remained dry overnight
with a lack of large-scale forcing. In terms of the forecast
today into tonight, no big changes in thinking have occurred
after perusal of morning model data. A pronounced cyclonic PV
anomaly off the Carolina capes, depicted quite well in GOES-R WV
and RAP mid-level vorticity analysis, will lift north along the
western side of of Atlantic high pressure and interact with
with the moisture plume as PWATS hold in the 1.75 to 2.1 inch
range. This will foster better low to mid level moisture
convergence and as such will drive a broad blossoming of shower
and thunderstorm activity along the eastern side of the band
later this afternoon into tonight. The best boundary layer
instability will set up across far southern NY state into
central and southern New England where higher thunder
probabilities exist. Models, both global and hi-res maintain
that bands of moderate to occasionally heavy rain and embedded
thunder will affect areas from northeast PA into the Hudson
Valley and portions of southern VT/nw MA/sw NH by later this
afternoon into tonight. As such our current Flash Flood Watch
will remain in effect for Rutland and Windsor Counties
accordingly (see hydro section below). Further north periods of
light to occasionally moderate rain will be possible from the
Adirondacks into northern VT with perhaps a stray rumble of
thunder. The SLV will generally remain rain-free outside perhaps
a passing light shower. After thorough analysis used a blend of
GEM/National Model Blend/WRF ARW/WRF NMM/GFS 20km/BTV 4km WRF
data through the 24 hour period which provides the most
consistent signal. Threw out the 00Z NAM 12km QPF owing to a
seemingly erroneous heavy/narrow band of rainfall much further
north this evening. High temperatures today will range from the
mid 70s to lower 80s under ample cloud cover, with overnight
lows tonight mainly in the 60s.
By Saturday morning another subtle ripple/shortwave rides northeast
through the region keeping the threat of steady, occasionally heavy
showers focused across our southern and eastern counties before
activity pushes east by afternoon. There will be some modest
boundary layer instability by the afternoon across central and
northern counties where partial afternoon sunshine is expected. So a
few additional pop-up showers or a stray storm or two will be
possible in these areas accordingly. Highs to range from the mid to
upper 70s in eastern counties where clouds will prevail through late
afternoon, and in the upper 70s to mid 80s further west with
aforementioned afternoon partial sun.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 331 AM EDT Friday...The mid level trough that is expected
to produce heavy rainfall on Friday night will be pushing off
to the east as a an upper level ridge starts to build in
Saturday evening. Dry air will move in and we should be in for a
relatively quiet couple of days on Sunday and Monday. Skies
will be partly cloudy and warm air advection will push 925mb
temps into the 23-24C range. That will support highs in the
upper 80s to near 90 in the Champlain and Saint Lawrence
Valleys. With the heights building the boundary layer winds will
be quite light and so the air will feel somewhat stagnant
during the afternoons. Because of the continued warm air
advection lows overnight will remain well above normal in the
mid 60s to near 70 which is still nearly 10 degrees above normal
for this time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 331 AM EDT Friday...An upper level trough will start to
track through the Great Lakes region early in the week and
should bring showers and thunderstorms to the North Country by
mid week. There's quite a discrepancy between the GFS, EC, and
GEM as to when the trough will actually swing through. The GFS
is the most progressive and given its typical intensity bias
I've opted to trend more towards a slower GEM/EC blend for the
chances for showers. This brings showers in more towards
Wednesday morning rather than Tuesday afternoon. Regardless of
timing discontinuities, the dynamics with this system appear to
be strengthening and its certainly capable of producing heavy
rainfall. Lapse rates are fairly modest averaging slightly above
moist adiabatic with decent mid level shear however the timing
of the front Wednesday morning precludes much diurnal heating so
the instability is marginal at best Wednesday morning. If the
front moves through in the afternoon, either Tuesday or
Wednesday, then we may need to pay attention for the possibility
of some stronger storms but at the moment the timing doesn't
look favourable.
Once the front clears we'll see quite a bit of drying move in
as the upper level flow flattens out a bit and high pressure
builds in at the surface again. Temps will trend closer to
normal while still remaining 2-3 degrees above. Expect highs
behind the front in the low 80s with lows overnight in the mid
60s.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR through 18Z with mainly BKN mid to
high level cigs from 100-200 AGL. Periods of light rain/showers
to affect KMPV and KRUT terminals in the 10-18Z time frame,
though generally no restrictions expected. Other terminals
should generally remain precipitation-free with perhaps a brief
passing sprinkle. Winds light southerly through this time frame
and mainly less than 8 kts.
After 18Z steadier bands of light/moderate rainfall push
northeast into areas from the Adirondack Mountains east and
south, which may trend heavier at KRUT toward the end of the
forecast cycle as winds trend light and variable. Cigs
gradually lower over time, remaining VFR at KBTV, KPBG, KSLK and
KMSS while trending MVFR at KMPV and KRUT. Thunder threat
remains generally on the lower side, with highest confidence of
a passing storm from 22Z onward at KRUT.
Outlook...
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect
for Rutland and Windsor Counties from noon today through noon
on Saturday. Basin-average QPF during this period will generally
range from 1 to 2.5 inches with locally higher totals in areas
that experience heavier thunderstorms. 1 hour flash flood
guidance is running in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range in this area,
which seems reasonable given recent heavy rainfall over the past
week. Indeed antedecent soil moisture conditions are quite wet
as USGS streamflow and SPORT RSM analysis indicate, especially
across the southern portions of these two counties. Further
north, while locally heavy downpours are expected antecedent
conditions in general are drier and as such will be able to
handle our current rainfall forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Flash Flood Watch from noon EDT today through Saturday morning
for VTZ011-012-019.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...JMG
HYDROLOGY...JMG
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