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November 2022, Week 1

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Subject:
From:
Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Fri, 4 Nov 2022 06:50:03 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
Parts/Attachments:
text/plain (239 lines)
Expires:202211041500;;528071
FPUS51 KBTV 040739
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
335 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022


VTZ018-041500-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
335 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022

.TODAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. South winds 10 to
15 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear until midnight, then becoming partly
cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. South winds
10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows around 60. South winds
15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the mid 60s. South winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...Clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in
the mid 40s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...Clear. Lows in the upper 20s.
Highs in the upper 40s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. 

$$


Expires:202211041100;;536440
ASUS41 KBTV 041030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI NOV 04 2022

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-041100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLEAR     56  38  50 S14       30.23S                  
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     44  34  67 CALM      30.29R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     32  30  92 CALM      30.26R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     32  30  92 MISG      30.27R                  
LYNDONVILLE*     N/A     39  35  86 CALM      30.28S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      52  37  56 S5        30.28S                  
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     43  35  73 E10       30.30R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     32  31  96 NE3       30.32S                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      54  39  58 S5        30.22F                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      46  37  70 SE9       30.25R                  
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     38  31  76 CALM      30.31S                  
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     36 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     46 N/A N/A SW24        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     55  48  76 S14         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     54  45  71 S20         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     54  43  66 S9          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;530735
FXUS61 KBTV 040813
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
413 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild temperatures and dry weather will continue through the end
of the week as ridging remains in place across the Northeast. 
Temperatures will remain well above normal, with highs warming 
into the 70s by Saturday. The next chance for precipitation 
arrives Saturday night into Sunday with a frontal passage.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 338 AM EDT Friday...Warmer than normal weather will
continue from today through Saturday. Surface high pressure will
remain anchored off the New England coast and we will be firmly
in the warm sector with south southwesterly flow ahead of next
approaching frontal system. Today will mainly be sunny with some
afternoon high clouds moving in, expect temperatures to be a 
few degrees warmer than yesterday. Temps will range from the
upper 60s to lower 70s. As low pressure system approaches from 
the Great Lakes region, and high remains anchored off the New 
England coast, we'll see increased pressure gradient force and 
winds will become gusty this afternoon. Gusts of 20-25 mph will 
be possible, especially in the St Lawrence and Champlain 
Valleys. This increasing southwest flow will continue overnight,
along with some lingering clouds will keep temperatures from 
optimal cooling. Hence it'll be a very mild night with lows in 
the 50s areawide. Will have increasing clouds on Saturday ahead
of approaching low and cold front, and pressure gradient
continues to increase with warm southwesterly flow in place.
This will lead to temperatures even warmer than today and
conditions even breezier. Highs will reach the lower to mid 70s
even with more clouds across the area. Precipitation will hold
off until later during the overnight hours. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 338 AM EDT Friday...The forecast remains track for the 
latter half of the weekend which features low pressure tracking 
northeast from the Great Lakes to James Bay, while dragging a 
weakening cold front towards the forecast area. Strong high 
pressure anchored off the Atlantic seaboard will act to tighten 
the pressure gradient over the forecast area Saturday night and 
in addition we'll see the passage of a strong 60-70kt southwest 
850mb jet to our northwest. The result will be a very mild and 
gusty night with record high min temperatures expected in the 
mid/upper 50s to locally lower 60s in the broader valleys, and 
winds gusting 25-35 mph.

Towards daybreak on Sunday precipitation chances will increase,
mainly across the St. Lawrence Valley and western Adirondacks 
where QPF amounts through mid-day will range from a tenth up to 
a third of an inch. Eastward though, continued strong low/mid 
level winds of 45- 55kts from the southwest will limit QPF, 
especially downsloping into the Champlain Valley where scattered
showers are more likely and QPF less than a tenth of an inch. 
Running into an antecedent dry airmass across eastern Vermont, 
precipitation chances wane rapidly going into Sunday night ahead
of the actual frontal passage to occur on Monday.

Highs Sunday will be a few degrees cooler than Saturday and 
close to daily records in a couple of locations in the mid 60s 
across northern New York and upper 60s to lower 70s in Vermont. 
Continued mild and near record high min temps are expected 
Sunday night ranging through the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 338 AM EDT Friday...Quiet weather is expected for next 
week as the region will once again be dominated by strong 
surface high pressure with no chances for precipitation through 
Thursday. The aforementioned cold front finally drops through 
the region Monday afternoon/evening with temperatures remaining 
well above normal still during the day in the low/mid 60s west 
and mid/upper 60s east/southeast. Behind the front temps cool 
off towards normal (but still slightly above) for the remainder 
of the week with lows in the 30s and highs mainly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions to prevail through the 
entire TAF period with mostly clear skies to continue. Winds 
will be from the south through the TAF period, generally under 7
knots overnight becoming 7-12 knots after 12Z. Some gusts up to
20 knots are expected over portions of the Champlain Valley 
along and near the Lake during the afternoon hours. 

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
With increasing southerly flow across our region, will see winds
pick up to lake wind advisory criteria by this afternoon. This
morning winds will be in the 15 to 20 kt range, then increase to
25 kts or higher this afternoon. Waves will increase to 2 to 4
feet along with the higher winds. 

&&

.CLIMATE...
Some record high maximum and minimum temperatures are likely 
today through Sunday, particularly on Saturday. 

Below are the standing records: 

 Max Temp Records
Date     KBTV     KMPV     K1V4     KMSS     KPBG     KSLK
11-04   73|1982  71|1982  63|2008  71|1961  72|1990  74|1944 
11-05   72|1938  73|2015  71|2015  73|2015  68|1948  74|1944 
11-06   75|1948  72|1978  70|2020  78|1948  73|2015  74|1945 

High Min Temp Records 
Date	KBTV     KMPV     K1V4     KMSS     KPBG     KSLK     
11-04  53|1994  54|1982  40|2005  51|1994  56|1977  55|1982 
11-05  57|2015  53|1994  44|2014  46|1994  49|1975  50|1994 
11-06  58|2015  57|1948  48|2015  54|2020  51|1948  48|2015

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Neiles
MARINE...Neiles
CLIMATE...Kutikoff

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