Expires:201506302000;;871899
FPUS51 KBTV 300724
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
321 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015


VTZ006-302000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
321 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.TODAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...
THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 60.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. 
.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. 

$$


Expires:201506301100;;878994
ASUS41 KBTV 301030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-301100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    56  53  90 CALM      29.97R                  
MORRISVILLE    FOG       55  53  93 CALM      29.99R VSB 1/4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     56  53  90 MISG      29.97R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       53  53  98 CALM      30.01R VSB<1/4          
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      56  56 100 CALM      29.97S                  
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    55  52  88 SE5       29.99S                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       56  56 100 CALM      29.99R VSB<1/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      59  56  91 S6        29.95R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      54  53  96 S5        29.98R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    53  52  96 CALM      29.99R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     52 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     50 N/A N/A N8          N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     61  59  94 SE10        N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     61  59  94 S13         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     59  59 100 S6          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;871991
FXUS61 KBTV 300727
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
327 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL 
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS 
NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND 
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE 
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. 
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A 
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD 
ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS 
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER 
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN/AMPLIFY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR
IMAGERY SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WI/IL. DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY MAX
ACROSS OHIO/NWRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SWRN NY AND
NWRN PA PER REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AT 0645Z. ANTICIPATE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN NY
COUNTIES TOWARD 18Z...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY 21-00Z. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK PER
NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT 100-500 J/KG ACROSS NRN NY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTN. CARRIED A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS NRN NY...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO WRN VT FOR A FEW HRS LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY REACHING 75-80F. ANTICIPATE HIGHS 80-81F AT BTV AND VSF.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING 
APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY 
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB HEIGHT FALLS 
15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO 500-800 J/KG 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY TO BE A BIT 
MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST ACROSS 
CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS TO 60-80 
PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH BEST 
SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY SEVERE 
WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL HEATING)...BUT A FEW 
STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN 
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON 
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE 
REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL 
CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON 
EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. 

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY.
MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STILL
WATCHING S/W ENERGY ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
BEST CHCS FOR A PASSING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO VT. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING A BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS START BTWN 8 AND 10C FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WARM
BTWN 11-13C BY SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND
LOWS RANGING FROM THE M/U 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS.
A FEW WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT LARGE SCALE SYSTME WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUES INTO WEDS OF NEXT
WEEK...BASED ON CRNT MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE
AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR AT OUR TAF SITES. CRNT IR SATL PIC SHOWS
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IMPACTING BTV/RUT/MPV WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOG WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT SLK...WHICH WILL PREVAIL THRU 12Z
TUESDAY. THINKING VIS/FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL JUMP UP AND DOWN BTWN
VFR AND IFR AT PBG...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE AT
MSS/BTV BTWN 07Z-11Z. MPV WILL SLOWLY CLR WITH CROSS OVER TEMPS
BEING REACHED BY 07Z...WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BTWN 08Z AND
11Z THIS MORNING. FOG/BR WILL LIFT AT ALL SITES BY 12Z...WITH
INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BY 18Z...WITH SOUTH WINDS 6 TO
12 KNOTS. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AFT 20Z TODAY...AND PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV. 

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS WITH SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL LOCALIZED DOWN POURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS IS POSSIBLE BTWN 18Z-00Z WEDS.
DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT'S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV

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