Expires:202107202000;;634867
FPUS51 KBTV 200811
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
406 AM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021


VTZ018-202000-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
406 AM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TODAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms this morning, then showers and thunderstorms likely
this afternoon. Hazy. Highs in the upper 70s. West winds around
10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Hazy until midnight. Showers and
thunderstorms likely, mainly until midnight. Lows around 60. West
winds around 10 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of
rain 60 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 60s. Northwest
winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. North
winds around 10 mph. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. West winds
10 to 15 mph. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 60s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 70. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy and breezy. Lows in the upper
50s. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Breezy with highs in the lower 70s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows around 60. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid
70s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 

$$


Expires:202107201100;;640708
ASUS41 KBTV 201030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE JUL 20 2021

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-201100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    66  64  93 CALM      29.89R                  
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    62  60  93 S3        29.95S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    63  63 100 CALM      29.91S FOG              
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     62  60  93 MISG      29.88S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       61  60  97 CALM      29.93R VSB<1/4          
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      62  62  99 CALM      29.91S FOG              
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    63  63 100 E5        29.92S                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       59  59 100 CALM      29.91F VSB 1/2          
HIGHGATE*      MOCLDY    65  64  96 CALM      29.89R FOG              
NEWPORT*       MOCLDY    62  60  92 SW3       29.91R FOG              
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    64  63  96 CALM      29.93R FOG              
ISLAND POND*     N/A     61 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     59 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     63 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     61 N/A N/A NW21        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS

$$


Expires:No;;634568
FXUS61 KBTV 200809
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
409 AM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Smoke and haze will be seen across northern New York and portions of 
Vermont through this afternoon. A cold front approaching from the 
west will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region this 
afternoon and evening with the possibility of a few strong to severe 
storms. Scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder will continue 
through Tuesday night and Wednesday morning but improving conditions 
are expected for the second half of Wednesday. Quieter weather is 
expected for the second half of the work weak with temperatures 
remaining a few degrees below normal values.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 409 AM EDT Tuesday...A decaying MCS continues to descend toward
the St. Lawrence Valley from southern Ontario but the latest
satellite trends continue to show warming cloud top temperatures.
Given this trend and the latest NAM3/HRRR runs, it's looking
increasingly likely this MCS will fizzle out prior to crossing the
international border. With that being said, we continue to see
decreased visibilities due to haze/smoke from the wildfires out
west. The HRRR vertically integrated smoke and near surface smoke
variables show an increasing concentration of particles across the
region; especially across northern New York. It's likely we will see
hazy skies and possibly reduced visibilities as smoke continues to
move into the North Country which could create some air quality
issues.

Much of the day today will yield partly cloudy skies ahead of an
approaching cold front from the west. There are signs of a very weak
pre-frontal trough but the surface layer remains quite stable
through 18Z or so before any convection that begins to fire ahead of
the cold front is able to get rooted in the boundary layer. The
front appears to come through piecemeal with the best thermodynamics
occurring during the 20Z-23Z timeframe with the best upper level
support occurring between 00Z and 04Z with the main mid-level height
falls not occurring until closer to 03Z. The thermodynamics alone
will be enough to support pulse thunderstorms this afternoon with
CAPE values approaching 1500 J/kg across the St. Lawrence Valley and
northern Vermont. As we get closer to the 00Z timeframe, we will see
our 0-6 km shear increase to around 30 knots which could help storms
organize into a multicellular feature or maybe weak bowing segment
if there is enough surface based instability. There will likely be a
brief window where things line up nicely which has warranted a
slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon.

Any lingering thunderstorms Tuesday night will end up becoming
elevated as the surface layer decouples which would bring an end to
any severe threat as mid-level lapse rates don't appear conducive to
large hail. The upper level trough axis won't swing through until
Wednesday morning so it appears scattered showers and a few rumbles
of thunder will be possible for at least the first half of Wednesday
before we see showers taper off Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 409 AM EDT Tuesday...Upper level troughing and west-northwest
flow will be largely persistent across the Northeast through
Thursday as a closed circulation at 500mb takes shape over the Gulf
of St. Lawrence. Drier mid-level air advecting in from a ridge over
the northern Plains and Ontario will keep conditions mainly dry, but
the chance of a few isolated showers can't be ruled out, especially
across eastern Vermont closer to the upper low. Temps will remain
about 5 degrees below seasonal normals with lows in the 50s and
highs in the 70s.

On Friday, the flow shifts more northerly as the upper low continues
to gyre in place while the ridge shifts east. This will allow some
Atlantic moisture to feed back into the region producing a higher
threat for showers. Limited instability should preclude the chance
of thunder, but PWATs hover around an inch support the chance for
moderate rainfall, but generally less than a half inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 409 AM EDT Tuesday...Heading into the weekend the
aforementioned ridge finally moves over the region with a dry and
sunny Saturday on tap. Unfortunately this tranquil weather will be
short-lived as an upper low/trough moving over James Bay will dampen
the ridge and shift the upper flow back to the west with several
embedded shortwaves renewing chances for showers, especially on
Sunday. Temps through the weekend will be near to slightly below
normal in the upper 70s to low 80s for highs, and upper 50s to mid
60s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...We continue to see reduced visibilities
at KMSS and KSLK this morning with 4-5SM visibilities due to
haze/smoke. The thinking is these conditions will continue, if
not deteriorate, through the morning hours with these reduced
visibilities working into other terminals through 00Z or so.
Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon may actually help to
increase visibilities as the rain helps to remove the smoke
particles from the environment with conditions improving after
00Z. We could still see some strong to locally severe
thunderstorms this afternoon which could create brief strong
wind gusts in excess of 25 knots and IFR visibilities in heavy
rain but these will likely be the outliers and not the norm.


Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Thursday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Clay

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