Expires:202107192000;;107751
FPUS51 KBTV 190739
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
336 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021
VTZ018-192000-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
336 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021
.TODAY...Patchy dense fog this morning. Mostly cloudy with a
chance of showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts
up to 30 mph this morning. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms until midnight. Lows in the lower 60s. Northwest
winds around 10 mph, becoming west after midnight. Chance of rain
20 percent.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in
the afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s. Southwest winds 10 to
15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in
the upper 50s. North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
Chance of rain 50 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the
upper 60s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain
50 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 50s.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 60s.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.
$$
Expires:202107191100;;115107
ASUS41 KBTV 191030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2021
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-191100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 66 62 87 CALM 29.98R
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 63 61 93 NW3 30.03S
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 63 62 97 CALM 30.00R FOG
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 63 61 93 MISG 29.96S
LYNDONVILLE* DRIZZLE 63 60 92 CALM 30.01R
MIDDLEBURY* LGT RAIN 63 62 98 CALM 29.99R
RUTLAND* LGT RAIN 63 63 100 N5 29.98R
SPRINGFIELD LGT RAIN 64 64 100 CALM 29.97R
HIGHGATE* LGT RAIN 64 63 96 CALM 29.99R
NEWPORT* CLOUDY 62 59 91 CALM 30.01R
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 65 64 97 NW3 29.97R
ISLAND POND* N/A 61 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 61 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 61 N/A N/A NE1 N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 57 N/A N/A CALM N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 66 73 100 N1 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 68 64 88 N9 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 66 63 88 NW6 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;109793
FXUS61 KBTV 190816
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
416 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will finally move east of Vermont
this morning bringing an end to cool and showery conditions.
Meanwhile, partly sunny skies and more seasonable temperatures
will help create instability available for isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms over northern and western
areas. More widespread showers and some thunderstorms are
expected late on Tuesday and Tuesday night with the passage of a
cold front. Additional chances for showers exists Wednesday
through Friday and Sunday, with generally cooler than normal
weather persisting through the period.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 416 AM EDT Monday...Showers have persisted across much of
the Adirondacks into central and southern Vermont overnight
with very slow movement of a low pressure system just southeast
of the region and upper level trough right overhead. As the
trough pulls north and east this morning, shower activity will
die off and clouds will finally thin out. There will be strong
differential heating west of this area with temperatures more
seasonable over western Vermont into northern New York. This
convergent boundary will help focus an axis of higher
instability and we have higher chances of thunderstorms across
eastern portions of the Adirondacks during the early afternoon
hours. However, isolated thunderstorms will be possible farther
north and west as well where greatest CAPE values are progged
given warmest and most humid boundary layer conditions. Towards
evening, the threat of these thunderstorms shifts farther north
and east over northern Vermont where the better instability will
likely be. Expect the environment to be lacking deep layer
shear with little directional or speed changes with height, so
the main threat with storms will be lightning as opposed to wind
and hail. After shower activity winds down, focus is on
potential for areas of fog. Currently have patchy fog for much
of the Connecticut River Valley, but coverage could be larger
given the anticipation of good radiational cooling conditions.
For tomorrow, main issue will be timing of a cold front and
development of a pre-frontal trough. A lot of variation in model
guidance at this time for how the wind fields look ahead of the
cold front which will still be off to our northwest by Tuesday
evening. If a pre-frontal trough brings through some showers
during the morning less instability will be available for the
expected organized thunderstorms during the late afternoon
hours. For now, the forecast indicates widespread thunderstorms,
which may be capable of gusty, non-severe, winds moving from
northwest to southeast during the evening hours. At the same
time, we leave some chances of thunderstorms farther south
earlier in the day as well to account for the possibility of the
initial forcing of precipitation, which again would be garden
variety thunderstorm activity with expectation of limited shear.
It will probably be the warmest day of the week, with highs
ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 359 AM EDT Monday...Convection will be ongoing Tuesday evening
over the northern third of our area ahead of a cold front.
Instability will exist ahead of the cold front and deep layer shear
will be moving over the top of that instability. However, both
instability and shear will not be that strong, but enough
nevertheless to maintain a thunderstorm threat. Definitely something
to keep an eye on as parameters are close to potentially producing a
few stronger storms. The thunder threat will come to an end
overnight, but upper trough axes at 500 and 300 millibars are
lagging behind the lower level features. These features do not move
into the area until Wednesday and thus we are looking at additional
precipitation, especially across Vermont in the afternoon on
Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s
with highs on Wednesday in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 359 AM EDT Monday...No significant weather is expected at this
time. The showers will come to an end and/or exit to the east
Wednesday night and northwest flow aloft develops over the area on
Thursday. The northwest flow aloft will persist right through
Saturday. There will be a few shortwaves moving through the flow
aloft and this could result in a few showers Thursday afternoon and
again Friday afternoon. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s both
days. At this time Saturday is looking to be the only completely dry
day and with more sunshine highs will be in the 70s to around 80.
The flow aloft backs to the west on Sunday as a shortwave trough
moves in from the west. As a result, precipitation chances will be
increasing as the day wears on. Highs once again will be in the 70s
to around 80.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Continued mix of IFR and LIFR ceilings at
RUT, and MVFR and IFR at MPV, through about 15Z due to
proximity to a low pressure system, with mainly VFR conditions
elsewhere. An occasional shower at southern terminals possible
through this time period but no visibility obstructions
expected. There is a conditional fog threat, particularly at
MSS, where high clouds currently mitigate development but can
foresee at least temporary reduced visibility between 08Z and
11Z. After 18Z, isolated showers with potential thunderstorm
activity will move southeastward and have best chance of
impacting northern/western terminals MSS, SLK, PBG, and EFK,
with activity ending close to 00Z. Could see development of fog
before 06Z in wake of showers with trapped surface moisture and
calm, dry air above, but left out of TAF for now.
Outlook...
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Kutikoff
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