Expires:200505292100;;413298
FPUS51 KBTV 290757
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
357 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2005


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-292100-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RANDOLPH...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
357 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2005

.TODAY...SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS
MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL. HIGHS IN THE 60S. LIGHT
WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 50. LIGHT WINDS.
.MEMORIAL DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
AROUND 70.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 70.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 70.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
AROUND 70.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
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FXUS61 KBTV 290831
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
430 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
SFC TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE FA
TONITE AND ON SUN. WK SFC HI PRESS RIDGE TO BUILD ACRS THE FA ON
MON NITE AND TUE. STORM SYS TO START TO MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUE. UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY AND THEN
ACRS THE FA TONITE AND ON MON. ANOTHER UPR TROF TO START TO MOVE IN
ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST ON TUE.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
00-03Z 13KM "DEVELOPMENT" RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE
M60S-M70S TODAY WITH W-NW SFC WINDS 5-10G20KTS. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST
PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA AND MESONET OBS. RUC CAPES ACRS
THE FA TODAY LOOK TO BE 500-800 J/KG. RUC SHOWS PTSUNNY SKIES ACRS
THE FA TODAY WITH SCT CONVECTION ACRS THE FA MOSTLY THIS AFTERNOON.

WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA OVER THE NEXT THREE
AFTERNOONS. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA TODAY AND
TONITE. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA TODAY THRU MON AND AGAIN
ON TUE. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE 0.5-0.9" ACRS THE FA
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. GFS CAPES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE
400-600 J/KG ON MON AND TUE.

BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS SOME SCT PCPN ACRS SOME OF THE CENTRAL AND
SRN FA ATTM. WITH WET-BULB ZERO HTS OF AROUND 7 KFT ACRS THE FA
TODAY...SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE AGAIN. ENVIRONMENT ACRS THE FA
LOOKS TO BE WEAKLY TO MODERATELY SHEARED TODAY (WITH GENERALLY EVEN
LESS SHEAR THAN YESTERDAY)...SO ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL ALSO
MOST LIKELY NOT MOVE AROUND MUCH...YIELDING SOME POSSIBLE +RA. PW
VALUES NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE THOUGH AND FFG VALUES FROM YESTERDAY ARE
ABOVE 1.5".

CHC POPS FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD (EXCEPT ON MON
NITE) FOR ANY -SHRA STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD IDEA. ANY PCPN ON TUE
LOOKS TO COME MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON HRS THOUGH. WILL LEAVE THE
MENTION OF THUNDER IN AS WELL FOR TUE...BUT THIS MIGHT BE IFFY. NOT
MANY OTHER CHANGES TO GOING TEMPS/WINDS IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE
TO TIME CONSTRAINTS.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR NOW EXCEPT TO TRY AND BETTER MESH
WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.

ALL FINAL PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED. LATER...

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST NEW YORK HAS HELPED TO SPREAD AREA
OF MID CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MUCH OF VERMONT EARLY THIS
MORNING.  BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS CLOSELY TIED TO THIS FEATURE...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY
NEW YORK.  HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS ARE NEARLY STATIONARY AND SHOULD
NOT IMPACT THE FOUR AVIATION FORECAST POINTS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THUS VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  ANY
OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY WILL BE AT KSLK AND KMPV WHERE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG MAY PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 13Z.  BEST POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAL COVERAGE REMAINING
SCATTERED.  LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
SMALL HAIL...WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z.  AFTER 00Z...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MURRAY
AVIATION...EVENSON





FXUS61 KBTV 290252
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1050 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS SENT WITH A FEW MINOR FIRST PERIOD
CHANGES...MAINLY JUST TO KEEP FCST CURRENT. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE KEPT
IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE
FOR SOUTHERN ZONES DUE AREA OF PCPN LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH FROM
SOUTHERN NEW YORK. IT APPEARS AS IF MOST OF THIS RAIN WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF FA OVERNIGHT HOWEVER. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED MENTION OF
SOME PATCHY FOG...WHICH IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THOSE AREAS
THAT EXPERIENCED SHOWERS TODAY. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT AROUND
50...EXCEPT 40S ADRNDKS AND PARTS OF NE VT.

.AVIATION...
CIGS VFR TO OCNL MVFR OVERNIGHT AND DURING SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT MAY LOWER VSBY AT TIMES TO IFR...ESPECIALLY KSLK.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF RW- OVERNIGHT...WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND PSBL TSRA DEVELOPING DURING SUNDAY...MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND THE
CVLY THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THAT OCCURRED WELL TO OUR SOUTH
YESTERDAY WHEN PORTIONS OF NY/PA SAW AMPLE SUNSHINE RECEIVED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...IS OCCURRING HERE. ONE REPORT ALREADY FROM A
SKYWARN SPOTTER OF PEA-SIZED HAIL ALONG WITH RA/+RA WITH STORM IN
NORTHERN CLINTON CTY. AS FRNT PUSHES NORTH THRU EVENING
HRS...EXPECTING MORE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA THRU EVENING
HRS BFR TAPERING OFF TO -RW AFT MIDNIGHT. WILL BE PUTTING MENTION OF
TS FOR TNGT ALONG W/ MENTION OF SM HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SUNDAY...UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LKS ASSOCIATED W/ OUR WX TDY WILL MV
EAST OVER NEW ENG AND OFF THE COAST BY SUN NGT. ACTIVE RW/TRW IN
OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LKS AREA AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON...AND W/ EXPECTING
TEMPS ALMOST AS WARM FOR TOMORROW AS TDY...WILL BE MENTIONING TS IN
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW. WRAP-AROUND PRECIP/TROUGH WITH EXITING LOW
SUN NGT INTO MON WILL BRING -RW TO CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
HALF...BUT WILL KEEP CH POPS IN THRU MIDDAY. BRIEF BREAK MON AFTNOON
INTO EVENING HRS...AS NEXT LOW WORKS NE OUT OF OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS
OUR CWA. WILL GRADUALLY BRING IN PRECIP FOR TUESDAY MORNING
OVERSPREADING REGION FROM SW TO NE. WITH LOW TO WEST...ENOUGH WARM
MOIST AIR SHOULD WORK IN AHEAD OF PRECIP...SO WILL PUT IN MENTION OF
TS FOR AFTERNOON HRS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUMMER APPEARS TO BE ON ITS WAY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS WE
TRANSITION FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST TO RIDGING
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE WEEK. FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE
IN USING BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF...RESULTING IN MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGE
DEVELOPING. ECMWF INDICATED BIGGER RIDGE THAN OPERATIONAL 00Z
GFS...AND LATEST 12Z GFS JUST ARRIVING IS TRENDING TOWARD ECMWF.

WE PICK UP THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE ELONGATED NORTHEAST US
TROUGH BECOMING MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE WAVE...AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER
THE CENTRAL US. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING 5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTHERN NY ON WED...WITH SURFACE LOW FURTHER S. LEFT CHC POPS GOING
IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER CHCS IN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
PORTION.

AFTER WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS RISE...WITH WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
RIDING THRU RIDGE. LOWERED POPS A BELOW HPC GUIDANCE FOR THURS AND
FRI FROM CHC TO SLGT CHC. ON THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE...AND MAY BRUSH NORTHERN PART OF
FORECAST AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS IN NORTH, TAPERING OFF TO SOUTH.
REVERSE SCENARIO ON FRIDAY...AS RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
REGION...AND SHORTWAVE TROF CUTS UNDER RIDGE TO SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA. SLGT CHC IN S ON FRI...TAPERING OFF TO N. FOR
SATURDAY...BROUGHT IN CHC POPS AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN THE
NORTHEAST...AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS REGION.

AVIATION...
MVFR MIST THIS MORNING GAVE WAY TO SKC MUCH OF AREA...THEN
CONVECTIVE CU POPPING BY LATE MRNG. VFR CLDS TO INCREASE THRU AFTN
AS LOW PASSES TO SOUTH OF REGION...THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. GAVE
KSLK AND KMPV TEMPO TSRA THIS AFTN. OVERNIGHT...WIND WILL GO LIGHT
AT KSLK AND KMPV...AND ENOUGH CLEARING FOR MVFR VIS FROM RADIATION
FOG/MIST TO DEVELOP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$






FXUS61 KBTV 281925
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
325 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND THE
CVLY THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THAT OCCURRED WELL TO OUR SOUTH
YESTERDAY WHEN PORTIONS OF NY/PA SAW AMPLE SUNSHINE RECEIVED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...IS OCCURRING HERE. ONE REPORT ALREADY FROM A
SKYWARN SPOTTER OF PEA-SIZED HAIL ALONG WITH RA/+RA WITH STORM IN
NORTHERN CLINTON CTY. AS FRNT PUSHES NORTH THRU EVENING
HRS...EXPECTING MORE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA THRU EVENING
HRS BFR TAPERING OFF TO -RW AFT MIDNIGHT. WILL BE PUTTING MENTION OF
TS FOR TNGT ALONG W/ MENTION OF SM HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SUNDAY...UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LKS ASSOCIATED W/ OUR WX TDY WILL MV
EAST OVER NEW ENG AND OFF THE COAST BY SUN NGT. ACTIVE RW/TRW IN
OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LKS AREA AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON...AND W/ EXPECTING
TEMPS ALMOST AS WARM FOR TOMORROW AS TDY...WILL BE MENTIONING TS IN
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW. WRAP-AROUND PRECIP/TROUGH WITH EXITING LOW
SUN NGT INTO MON WILL BRING -RW TO CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
HALF...BUT WILL KEEP CH POPS IN THRU MIDDAY. BRIEF BREAK MON AFTNOON
INTO EVENING HRS...AS NEXT LOW WORKS NE OUT OF OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS
OUR CWA. WILL GRADUALLY BRING IN PRECIP FOR TUESDAY MORNING
OVERSPREADING REGION FROM SW TO NE. WITH LOW TO WEST...ENOUGH WARM
MOIST AIR SHOULD WORK IN AHEAD OF PRECIP...SO WILL PUT IN MENTION OF
TS FOR AFTERNOON HRS.
&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUMMER APPEARS TO BE ON ITS WAY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS WE
TRANSITION FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST TO RIDGING
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE WEEK. FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE
IN USING BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF...RESULTING IN MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGE
DEVELOPING. ECMWF INDICATED BIGGER RIDGE THAN OPERATIONAL 00Z
GFS...AND LATEST 12Z GFS JUST ARRIVING IS TRENDING TOWARD ECMWF.

WE PICK UP THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE ELONGATED NORTHEAST US
TROUGH BECOMING MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE WAVE...AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER
THE CENTRAL US. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING 5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTHERN NY ON WED...WITH SURFACE LOW FURTHER S. LEFT CHC POPS GOING
IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER CHCS IN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
PORTION.

AFTER WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS RISE...WITH WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
RIDING THRU RIDGE. LOWERED POPS A BELOW HPC GUIDANCE FOR THURS AND
FRI FROM CHC TO SLGT CHC. ON THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE...AND MAY BRUSH NORTHERN PART OF
FORECAST AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS IN NORTH, TAPERING OFF TO SOUTH.
REVERSE SCENARIO ON FRIDAY...AS RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
REGION...AND SHORTWAVE TROF CUTS UNDER RIDGE TO SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA. SLGT CHC IN S ON FRI...TAPERING OFF TO N. FOR
SATURDAY...BROUGHT IN CHC POPS AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN THE
NORTHEAST...AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR MIST THIS MORNING GAVE WAY TO SKC MUCH OF AREA...THEN
CONVECTIVE CU POPPING BY LATE MRNG. VFR CLDS TO INCREASE THRU AFTN
AS LOW PASSES TO SOUTH OF REGION...THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. GAVE
KSLK AND KMPV TEMPO TSRA THIS AFTN. OVERNIGHT...WIND WILL GO LIGHT
AT KSLK AND KMPV...AND ENOUGH CLEARING FOR MVFR VIS FROM RADIATION
FOG/MIST TO DEVELOP.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON





   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN

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