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SKIVT-L  May 2018, Week 3

SKIVT-L May 2018, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 18 May 2018 06:50:01 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (222 lines)

Expires:201805182000;;134996
FPUS51 KBTV 180745
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
343 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018


VTZ006-182000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
343 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

.TODAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. Northeast winds around 10 mph
this morning, becoming light and variable. 
.TONIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Light and variable winds,
becoming southeast around 10 mph after midnight. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers in the morning,
then cloudy with showers in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 50s.
Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the lower 50s. South winds 10 to
15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Occasional showers. Highs in the mid 60s. West winds
around 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 70. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 40s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 60s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. 

$$


Expires:201805181100;;141965
ASUS41 KBTV 181030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-181100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    44  28  53 N5        30.36R                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      38  28  67 NW5       30.37R                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      32  30  92 CALM      30.37R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     37  32  82 MISG      30.33R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      37  27  68 CALM      30.36R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      39  36  88 CALM      30.35R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      41  40  96 CALM      30.32R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      47  28  47 VRB6      30.32R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      40  29  65 N5        30.38R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      36  29  75 CALM      30.36R                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      47  41  80 CALM      30.26R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     28 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     30 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     43 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     43  32  65 MISG        N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     45  34  65 N15         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     46  30  53 NW15G21     N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;137316
FXUS61 KBTV 180830
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
430 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
One last dry day today before this weekend brings rain and cooler 
temperatures in as low pressure lifts northeastward from the Ohio 
Valley into New York and New England. Next week will see a return to 
drier conditions and above normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 428 AM EDT Friday...Dry weather hangs around for one 
more day as a high pressure ridge remains before breaking down 
later this evening. While skies will remain relatively cloud 
free, especially across the northern counties, northerly flow 
will continue for most of the day and keep high temps again 
right near seasonal normals. The weakens overnight and moisture 
along the Southeastern US and the Mid-Atlantic will be allowed 
to make its way north. A weak shortwave moves through quickly as
the ridge breaks down and will rapidly eject northeastward. As 
seen with previous model runs, ample moisture is in place and 
PWATs up to 1.5 inches which will lead to widespread rain. 
Instability remains relatively weak and the quick moving nature 
of this system will keep rainfall amounts from getting too high 
with amounts generally around 0.5 inch or less for the day 
Saturday. A low level jet moves into the area by midday with 
850mb winds of 35 - 55 knots centered over the Dacks. Afternoon 
gusts of 15-25 knots are possible as the system passes through 
with some isolated higher gusts in the mountain areas. That all 
being said, a chance of a rumble of thunder Saturday afternoon 
can't be ruled out. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 417 AM EDT Friday...Rain will become more showery in 
nature Saturday night as the best warm advection and overrunning
lifts northeast of the area by the evening hours. Some of the 
area especially in northern NY may get into the warm sector 
while east of the Greens its less likely. While showers are 
still likely Saturday night there could be a period during the 
night without much going on before a cold front approaches the 
St. Lawrence Valley by early Sunday with an increase in precip 
probabilities. The NAM is still showing some CAPE to around 250 
J/kg, mainly elevated, while the GFS is less. The Showalter 
index is near zero and Ks in the 30s, so a rumble of thunder is 
not out of the question, but averaging NAM/GFS keeps most of the
thunder out of the forecast this point. Simulated satellite 
from the BTV WRF does show some embedded convective cells might 
be possible as well. The NAM/GFS have the cold front on our 
doorstep by 12z Sun through ECMWF is a bit slower. The cold 
front will have showers ahead and along the front but clearing 
behind. The front will move steadily southeast Sunday with a 
decreasing probability of precipitation from northwest to 
southeast but should clear most of our area by mid afternoon. 
Timing will play a role in the instability ahead of the front 
and indications are that some weak instability will develop 
south and east of BTV mainly south central VT (VSF) and points 
south. Again a blend of NAM/GFS keeps MUCAPE below 250 J/kg so 
not including thunder at this time. Looking like about a half 
inch of rain is expected with locally 0.75 to near an inch over 
the south central Greens. Clearing skies are expected Sunday
afternoon with mainly clear skies Sunday night. Temperatures 
Saturday night will be steady or rising ranging from early 
evening lows the upper 40s east of the Greens to mid to upper 
50s in the St. Lawrence valley rising through the 50s by Sunday 
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 417 AM EDT Friday...Monday is looking with a NW flow 
aloft and weak high pressure. Things become a bit more uncertain
by Tue-Wed next week as the flow aloft backs to more westerly 
and we are more under the influence of the southern branch of 
the split confluent flow over the eastern CONUS. As a result a 
bit more moisture advects back into the region with perhaps a 
weak short wave or two embedded for another chance of showers 
Tuesday into Wednesday with the higher chances on Wed. It does 
look the like the models want to bring a more significant wave
and cold front southeast from the northern branch with showers 
perhaps a thunderstorm Wed with clearing and drier weather by 
Thursday. Temperatures continuing slightly above to near average
with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in the 40s to
around 50 each day.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...High pressure situated over the North 
Country will result in VFR conditions at all TAF sites through 
the period. As colder air moves in tonight, winds will be 
predominately out of the N around 5-10 kt. Tomorrow winds will 
shift slightly to the N-NE between 4-8 kt under clear and sunny 
skies. Diurnally driven flow at KPBG will result in an E of NE 
lake breeze by mid morning. KRUT should see E winds shift SE 
late with a few high clouds as our next system moves in towards 
Friday night. 

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Likely SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Verasamy
NEAR TERM...Verasamy
SHORT TERM...Sisson
LONG TERM...Sisson
AVIATION...LaRocca/Taber/Verasamy

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January 2002, Week 5
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