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| Date: | Fri, 18 May 2018 06:50:01 -0400 |
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Expires:201805182000;;134996
FPUS51 KBTV 180745
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
343 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018
VTZ006-182000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
343 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018
.TODAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. Northeast winds around 10 mph
this morning, becoming light and variable.
.TONIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Light and variable winds,
becoming southeast around 10 mph after midnight.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers in the morning,
then cloudy with showers in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 50s.
Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the lower 50s. South winds 10 to
15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
.SUNDAY...Occasional showers. Highs in the mid 60s. West winds
around 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 70.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 40s.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 60s.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 40s.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.
$$
Expires:201805181100;;141965
ASUS41 KBTV 181030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-181100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON MOCLDY 44 28 53 N5 30.36R
MONTPELIER FAIR 38 28 67 NW5 30.37R
MORRISVILLE FAIR 32 30 92 CALM 30.37R
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 37 32 82 MISG 30.33R
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 37 27 68 CALM 30.36R
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 39 36 88 CALM 30.35R
RUTLAND* FAIR 41 40 96 CALM 30.32R
SPRINGFIELD FAIR 47 28 47 VRB6 30.32R
HIGHGATE* FAIR 40 29 65 N5 30.38R
NEWPORT* FAIR 36 29 75 CALM 30.36R
BENNINGTON FAIR 47 41 80 CALM 30.26R
ISLAND POND* N/A 28 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 30 N/A N/A MISG N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 43 N/A N/A MISG N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 43 32 65 MISG N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 45 34 65 N15 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 46 30 53 NW15G21 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;137316
FXUS61 KBTV 180830
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
430 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
One last dry day today before this weekend brings rain and cooler
temperatures in as low pressure lifts northeastward from the Ohio
Valley into New York and New England. Next week will see a return to
drier conditions and above normal temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 428 AM EDT Friday...Dry weather hangs around for one
more day as a high pressure ridge remains before breaking down
later this evening. While skies will remain relatively cloud
free, especially across the northern counties, northerly flow
will continue for most of the day and keep high temps again
right near seasonal normals. The weakens overnight and moisture
along the Southeastern US and the Mid-Atlantic will be allowed
to make its way north. A weak shortwave moves through quickly as
the ridge breaks down and will rapidly eject northeastward. As
seen with previous model runs, ample moisture is in place and
PWATs up to 1.5 inches which will lead to widespread rain.
Instability remains relatively weak and the quick moving nature
of this system will keep rainfall amounts from getting too high
with amounts generally around 0.5 inch or less for the day
Saturday. A low level jet moves into the area by midday with
850mb winds of 35 - 55 knots centered over the Dacks. Afternoon
gusts of 15-25 knots are possible as the system passes through
with some isolated higher gusts in the mountain areas. That all
being said, a chance of a rumble of thunder Saturday afternoon
can't be ruled out.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 417 AM EDT Friday...Rain will become more showery in
nature Saturday night as the best warm advection and overrunning
lifts northeast of the area by the evening hours. Some of the
area especially in northern NY may get into the warm sector
while east of the Greens its less likely. While showers are
still likely Saturday night there could be a period during the
night without much going on before a cold front approaches the
St. Lawrence Valley by early Sunday with an increase in precip
probabilities. The NAM is still showing some CAPE to around 250
J/kg, mainly elevated, while the GFS is less. The Showalter
index is near zero and Ks in the 30s, so a rumble of thunder is
not out of the question, but averaging NAM/GFS keeps most of the
thunder out of the forecast this point. Simulated satellite
from the BTV WRF does show some embedded convective cells might
be possible as well. The NAM/GFS have the cold front on our
doorstep by 12z Sun through ECMWF is a bit slower. The cold
front will have showers ahead and along the front but clearing
behind. The front will move steadily southeast Sunday with a
decreasing probability of precipitation from northwest to
southeast but should clear most of our area by mid afternoon.
Timing will play a role in the instability ahead of the front
and indications are that some weak instability will develop
south and east of BTV mainly south central VT (VSF) and points
south. Again a blend of NAM/GFS keeps MUCAPE below 250 J/kg so
not including thunder at this time. Looking like about a half
inch of rain is expected with locally 0.75 to near an inch over
the south central Greens. Clearing skies are expected Sunday
afternoon with mainly clear skies Sunday night. Temperatures
Saturday night will be steady or rising ranging from early
evening lows the upper 40s east of the Greens to mid to upper
50s in the St. Lawrence valley rising through the 50s by Sunday
morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 417 AM EDT Friday...Monday is looking with a NW flow
aloft and weak high pressure. Things become a bit more uncertain
by Tue-Wed next week as the flow aloft backs to more westerly
and we are more under the influence of the southern branch of
the split confluent flow over the eastern CONUS. As a result a
bit more moisture advects back into the region with perhaps a
weak short wave or two embedded for another chance of showers
Tuesday into Wednesday with the higher chances on Wed. It does
look the like the models want to bring a more significant wave
and cold front southeast from the northern branch with showers
perhaps a thunderstorm Wed with clearing and drier weather by
Thursday. Temperatures continuing slightly above to near average
with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in the 40s to
around 50 each day.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...High pressure situated over the North
Country will result in VFR conditions at all TAF sites through
the period. As colder air moves in tonight, winds will be
predominately out of the N around 5-10 kt. Tomorrow winds will
shift slightly to the N-NE between 4-8 kt under clear and sunny
skies. Diurnally driven flow at KPBG will result in an E of NE
lake breeze by mid morning. KRUT should see E winds shift SE
late with a few high clouds as our next system moves in towards
Friday night.
Outlook...
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Likely SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Verasamy
NEAR TERM...Verasamy
SHORT TERM...Sisson
LONG TERM...Sisson
AVIATION...LaRocca/Taber/Verasamy
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