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SKIVT-L  August 2020, Week 1

SKIVT-L August 2020, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Alan Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 2 Aug 2020 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (279 lines)

Expires:202008022000;;801604
FPUS51 KBTV 020732
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
329 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020


VTZ006-022000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
329 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers this morning, then
showers likely with isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Some
thunderstorms may produce gusty winds, small hail, and heavy
rainfall this afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. Light and
variable winds, becoming south 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
30 mph this afternoon. Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
until midnight, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after
midnight. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds, small hail,
and heavy rainfall until midnight. Humid with lows in the upper
60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Humid
with highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph, becoming northwest in the afternoon. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows around 60. East winds around
10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Showers. Highs in the lower 70s. South winds 10 to
15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows
in the lower 60s. Chance of rain near 100 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 70s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. 

$$


Expires:202008021100;;808997
ASUS41 KBTV 021030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-021100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    70  61  73 CALM      29.91F                  
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    61  60  97 CALM      30.01F                  
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    60  59  96 CALM      29.96S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     60  58  92 MISG      29.97S                  
LYNDONVILLE*     N/A     58  57  97 CALM      30.01R FOG              
MIDDLEBURY*    MOCLDY    65  60  83 CALM      29.93S                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    67  61  81 SE6       29.96S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    63  60  90 CALM      29.99R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      66  62  87 CALM      29.91R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      59  57  94 S3        29.98S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    69  61  75 CALM      29.95S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     54 N/A N/A N1          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     55 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     59 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     66 N/A N/A S13         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     72  64  78 SE8         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     73  66  78 S13         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     72  64  78 S7          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;803890
FXUS61 KBTV 020821
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
421 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moving through the eastern Great Lakes will provide 
areas of rain showers this morning along a warm frontal passage, 
then as the low passes through the St. Lawrence Valley this 
afternoon, additional showers and thunderstorms will develop as a 
cold front sweeps through. Some of these thunderstorms could become 
strong and produce damaging wind gusts and hail. Heading into next 
week, generally dry conditions are expected on Monday before the 
remnants of Tropical Storm Isaias move up the eastern seaboard and 
provide the region with widespread rain early Tuesday through the 
first half of Wednesday. High pressure and dry conditions return to 
end the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 420 AM EDT Sunday...Active weather is on tap to end the weekend
as low pressure passing through the eastern Great Lakes this morning
will track northeast through the St. Lawrence Valley this afternoon.
Strong isentropic lift along the leading edge of the attending warm
front will provide a brief period of light rain showers to the
region this morning as the boundary traverses the area from about
sunrise through noon. Thereafter as the warm front lifts north of
the international border, the big question will be how much can the
atmosphere destabilize in the warm sector ahead of an approaching
cold front that looks to sweep through the region late in the
afternoon through the evening. Initially, the airmass will be quite
junky with an abundance of low/mid level moisture producing thick
cloud cover into the early afternoon, but soundings support a dry
layer from 850- 700mb working in after about 19Z, helping scattered
sunshine to break out from the Adirondacks eastward through Vermont.
If this occurs, we'll likely see some destabilization with surface
temps rapidly rising into the mid/upper 80s helping to develop
SBCAPEs the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. This idea is supported well by
the latest 00Z CAMs which depict convection firing along the cold
frontal boundary after 20Z.

The situation isn't exactly ideal for severe thunderstorms given
morning rain and little time to destabilize, but as the previous
discussion highlighted, if we can get convection to fire soundings
do support the development of stronger storms with wide hodographs
and 40-50kts of 0-6km bulk shear available. SPC continues to
highlight northern New York in a slight risk, with the main threat
being damaging winds, while further east, confidence is lower for
strong storms as by the time convection reaches Vermont we will be
past peak heating and instability will be waning. Convection will
gradually decrease in coverage through midnight, with just some
lingering showers possible for the remainder of the night into
Monday morning. Drier conditions develop by Monday afternoon in
advance of our next system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 420 AM EDT Sunday...Fcst focus for short term will be track of
tropical system Isaias and sharp precip gradient acrs our cwa.
Overall, a minor shift in the track to the north and west, closer to
our fa has been observed in the 00z guidance, which does bring
slightly higher qpf amounts into central/eastern VT. However, given
recent dry spell and fast movement of system, not expecting
significant hydro related issues, with expected rainfall totals of
0.50 SLV to 2.50 inches with localized amounts near 3.0 possible in
eastern sections.

The combination of a strong sub-tropical ridge near Bermuda and
digging full latitude mid/upper lvl trof acrs the central MS River
Valley will establish deep southerly flow with strong moisture
transport. This deep southerly flow will help track Isaias from the
Carolina Coast on Monday into the mid Atlantic on Tuesday and
extreme northern Maine by early Weds. Guidance is indicating a few
ingredients coming together for a predecessor rain event ahead of
tropical system Isaias on Tuesday. The synoptic scale features
include rrq of 250mb jet of 100 to 120 knots lifting acrs our cwa,
helping to promote deep ascent, ahead of mid/upper lvl trof.
Meanwhile, guidance suggests a dual llvl theta e axis acrs our cwa,
along with two areas of favorable llvl convergence. First is located
over the SLV associated with inverted trof feature, while second is
associated with slightly better 925mb to 850mb fgen forcing lifting
acrs southern/central VT on Tues. Expect widespread light rain to
develop acrs our cwa on Tuesday, with areas of moderate rain
possible where llvl forcing is better. Rainfall generally 0.25 to
0.75 on Tues acrs our cwa.

By Tuesday evening and overnight into Weds, deeper tropical moisture
associated with Isaias will impact our central/eastern and 
southern VT region. Guidance continues to show a sharp nw to se 
qpf gradient acrs our fa, which makes precip amounts 
challenging, especially with just a slight shift in the fcst 
track. Have mentioned heavy rainfall possible for 
eastern/southern cwa, where probability is highest for 
additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches on Tues Night. The heaviest
rainfall will occur btwn 21z Tues thru 06z Weds, with highest 
qpf acrs central/southern and eastern VT. Low pres is expected 
to be north of NYC by 00z Weds, near Springfield MA by 03z, and 
NW of Portland, ME by 09z. This track places our fa on 
northern/western edge of heavier qpf axis associated with better
forcing/deeper moisture. Nose of 45 to 50 knot 850mb jet is 
angling toward our eastern VT fa, along with pw values near 2.0"
and potent embedded 5h vort from tropical remnants. Heavier 
precip is tapering off and shifting east of fa by 06z, as 
mid/upper lvl dry slot develops and pws quickly drops <1.0 by 
12z Weds. Have pops near 100% for Tues into Tues Night, but 
taper off to chc by Weds. Have cut back on Tues for Tues with 
clouds/precip anticipated, highs mainly in the 70s with lows mid
60s to near 70 Tues Night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 420 AM EDT Sunday...A period of dry and quiet weather is
anticipated for Weds through Fri as weak mid/upper lvl trof with
building sfc high pres prevails acrs the ne conus. This will result
in mainly dry conditions and near normal temps. Mid/upper lvl
moisture and weak embedded 5h vort approaches western cwa late
Friday into Saturday with a slight increase in pops, but timing
differences and uncertainty on amount of moisture and instability
exists. Progged 925mb temps warm into the 20-22c range by Sat/Sun of
next weekend, supporting highs back into the mid 80s to near 90f,
with lows generally in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions will generally prevail
through the period with several chances for precipitation. A 
warm front moving through the region will support scattered to 
numerous showers from BTV westward from 12-18Z, but based on 
upstream obs don't think there will be any restrictions to 
ceilings or visibility. After 18Z a cold front will approach the
region, swinging through from west to east from 21-03Z renewing
chances for precipitation in the form of scattered showers and 
thunderstorms. Some storms may be locally strong, and within 
any of these short periods of IFR visibility and gusty winds are
possible, but difficult to predict at this time.

Outlook...

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 420 AM EDT Sunday...South winds will be gradually 
increasing through the day, reaching 15 to 25 knots with gusts 
to 30 knots by later this afternoon and continuing into the 
night. Waves will build to 2 to 4 feet with locally higher waves
possible. Boaters should exercise caution on Lake Champlain 
today as conditions will become increasingly choppy this 
afternoon and evening. A lake wind advisory has been posted.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Lahiff
MARINE...

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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August 2010, Week 1
July 2010, Week 5
July 2010, Week 4
July 2010, Week 3
July 2010, Week 2
July 2010, Week 1
June 2010, Week 5
June 2010, Week 4
June 2010, Week 3
June 2010, Week 2
June 2010, Week 1
May 2010, Week 5
May 2010, Week 4
May 2010, Week 3
May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
January 2010, Week 5
January 2010, Week 4
January 2010, Week 3
January 2010, Week 2
January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
July 2009, Week 4
July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
January 2009, Week 5
January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
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December 2008, Week 3
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October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
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January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
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November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
January 2007, Week 4
January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
December 2006, Week 1
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November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
July 2006, Week 4
July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
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June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
May 2006, Week 5
May 2006, Week 4
May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
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February 2006, Week 2
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January 2006, Week 1
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December 2005, Week 2
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November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
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October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
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August 2005, Week 4
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August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
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October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 3
September 2004, Week 2
September 2004, Week 1
August 2004, Week 5
August 2004, Week 4
August 2004, Week 3
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July 2004, Week 5
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July 2004, Week 3
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July 2004, Week 1
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June 2004, Week 2
June 2004, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 3
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April 2004, Week 1
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February 2004, Week 3
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February 2004, Week 1
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November 2003, Week 3
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November 2003, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
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December 2001, Week 4
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March 2001, Week 1
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