Expires:202304041500;;202556
FPUS51 KBTV 040741
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
338 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023


VTZ018-041500-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
338 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023

.TODAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of light rain. Highs in
the mid 40s. Light and variable winds. 
.TONIGHT...Cloudy. A chance of light rain until midnight, then a
chance of rain or snow showers after midnight. Little or no snow
accumulation. Lows in the lower 30s. Light and variable winds,
becoming northeast around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of
precipitation 50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...A chance of snow showers in the morning. Cloudy with
a chance of rain showers and freezing rain. Little or no snow
accumulation. Ice accumulation of up to a tenth of an inch. Highs
in the lower 40s. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to
30 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Rain showers or freezing rain likely. Lows in
the mid 30s. South winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation
70 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 50s. Southwest winds
around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower
30s. Highs in the upper 30s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower
20s. Highs around 40. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 20s. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 50. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s.
Highs in the upper 50s. 

$$


Expires:202304041100;;210288
ASUS41 KBTV 041030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE APR 04 2023

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-041100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    38  35  89 CALM      30.01S TC   3           
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    34  32  92 CALM      30.04S TC   1           
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    32  29  88 CALM      30.02S FOG     TC   0   
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A    N/A N/A N/A MISG      30.02R                  
LYNDONVILLE*     N/A     32  31  99 CALM      30.02S FOG     TC   0   
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    40  40 100 CALM      30.01S TC   4           
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    40  39  97 SE9       30.02S TC   4           
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    41  36  82 CALM      30.04R TC   5           
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      34  32  94 CALM      30.02S TC   1           
NEWPORT*       FAIR      32  31  96 SW6       30.01F WCI  26 TC   0   
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    43  35  73 SE3       30.02S TC   6           
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A    N/A N/A N/A W15         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     37  32  81 E2          N/A  TC   3           
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     39  34  81 S7          N/A  TC   4           
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     43  36  75 W2          N/A  TC   6           

$$


Expires:No;;207480
FXUS61 KBTV 040907
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
507 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern will continue through Thursday with a
mix of winter and spring conditions as a series of warm fronts 
moves through the area followed by a strong cold front. Total 
precipitation through Thursday morning will most likely range 
from a quarter inch in south central Vermont to one and a third 
inches in the St. Lawrence Valley, where some of the 
precipitation may accumulate as ice early Wednesday. Some ice 
accumulation in central and eastern Vermont may also occur 
Wednesday night. Cool conditions with dry high pressure to end 
the week will trend warmer for the early part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 507 AM EDT Tuesday...Weak high pressure over the region 
today will be squeezed by a stronger Canadian high pressure 
system and a long warm front extending from a large low pressure
area in the central US. Early this morning, the lack of wind 
and the rain showers we saw last night has led to areas of dense
fog along with chilly temperatures where low clouds had 
scattered. In contrast where low clouds remain, particularly the
lower Connecticut River Valley and southern portions of the 
Champlain Valley, temperatures are starting out rather mild in 
the low and mid 40s. Variations in temperature will be one of 
the many forecasting challenges during the next couple of days 
as low level temperature advection will be shallow and limited 
while warm air surges northward aloft. For today's sensible 
weather, the zone of lower clouds and associated showers 
upstream will shift a bit northward with time, and rain chances 
accordingly will move into south central Vermont. Have bumped up
chances to likely (~60%) of light rain for today in this area. 
Further north into the northern Adirondacks and north central 
Vermont chances of seeing wet weather decreases but it should be
cloudy, while our northern areas will possibly see some weak 
sunshine today. As such, high temperatures in northern Vermont 
will tend to be a degree or two warmer on average than southern 
areas, generally ranging through the mid and upper 40s.

Our precipitation chances that were mainly limited to south 
central Vermont will increase tonight across the area. A strong
warm front extending east of the significant low pressure area
over the Midwest will be elevated over our region. The cloud
layer flow will be from west to east, the front will advect
moist air northward, while near the surface cold air advection
will be ongoing as the Canadian high pressure area to our north
digs into northern Maine. In combination, strongly inverted 
temperatures will allow for pockets of sleet trending towards freezing
rain as depth of cold air erodes, with best chances for ice
accumulation occurring in the St. Lawrence Valley and near the
International Border early morning. As typical during the
spring, intensity of precipitation could overcome the solar
radiation effects, as precipitation may be heavy freezing rain
in localized areas Wednesday morning. At this time, chances of
impactful ice accumulation or low but bears watching. 

In any case, given elevated instability during this period 
there may be rumbles of thunder in heavier showers. More 
frequent downpours through the day are favored in northern areas
nearer to the stronger frontogenesis and upper level forcing. 
The focus on precipitation type late Wednesday shifts eastward 
as warming from the southwest overrides the existing surface 
cold in northern New York. The cold air damming signature 
expected along and east of the Green Mountains on Wednesday 
afternoon/evening is particularly strong in GFS output, which 
has been trending colder over the last several runs. Some ice 
accumulation is now indicated, mainly after dark and on elevated
and untreated surfaces, in much of this region. Otherwise,
expect south/southeast winds to really ramp up where the warm 
front lifts to our north in response to 50-55 knot 850 millibar
winds; given a strong surface inversion, windy conditions with
speeds at least 30 MPH will be mainly in higher terrain and 
near/on Lake Champlain.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 405 AM EDT Tuesday...Very dynamic system will continue to
impact the region during this time frame. A warm front will be
poised just to our southwest Wednesday evening, eventually lifting
across the area overnight on a southwest 50+ kt 850mb jet. There
will be a deep warm nose over a shallow inversion of cold air, but
expect areas from the Champlain Valley westward will have warmed
above freezing by Wednesday evening. However, model consensus is
growing that cold air will remain entrenched east of the Greens and
will be slow to scour out overnight. The jet will also usher in
copious amounts of moisture; PWATs will approach 1.5 inches, which
is nearing a climatological maximum for early/mid April. Hence
expect there will be a broad swath of showers that will cross our
area Wednesday night, and given the aforementioned temperature
profiles, this will likely start out as a period of freezing rain
across eastern VT. Temperatures will slowly warm overnight, and
expect the vast majority of eastern VT will be above freezing by 2
am or so. Until then, nighttime ice accumulations up to a tenth of
an inch will be possible in eastern VT, with locally higher amounts
in far northeastern locations. Temperature trends will need to be
watch closely; a slower arrival of above freezing temperatures will
mean greater ice accumulations than currently indicated.

The other concern for Wednesday night is the potential for
thunderstorms, mainly across the southern St Lawrence Valley and
southern Adirondacks, and down across central/southern VT. MUCAPEs
of 100-300 J/kg will be possible as per the latest NAM, but overall
expect storms to remain elevated given the aforementioned low level
inversion. Therefore, the main threat would be heavy rainfall with
any convection due to the high PWATs as mentioned above. While
flooding is not anticipated at this time, ponding of water in poor
drainage areas will be possible in heavier rainfall.

There may be a brief break in the precipitation late Wednesday
night/early Thursday, but expect things to flare back up on Thursday
as a cold front crosses from west to east. Strong south flow ahead
of this front will allow temperatures to warm into the 50s Thursday
afternoon, with some locations in the southern Champlain/CT River
Valleys exceeding 60F. A rumble of thunder or two will be possible
in south central VT as the front moves through, as MUCAPE values
will once again exceed 200 J/kg.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 405 AM EDT Tuesday...Any lingering showers will quickly wind
down Thursday evening, with much of the overnight to be dry.
Thereafter, dry weather will prevail through the weekend as high
pressure settles over the region. A weak upper vort will move
overhead on Friday, but given the amount of dry air in place, don't
expect much beyond increasing clouds, particularly over the higher
terrain. The dry air/high pressure will also lend themselves to
chilly temperatures in the teens and 20s Friday night and Saturday
night, but daytime highs should warm to 35F to 45F on Saturday and
45F to 55F on Sunday. The ridge moves east of our area by Monday,
and increased south/southwest flow will allow temperatures to
approach 60F in many locations.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Aside from patchy fog at MPV early this
morning, mainly a low impact period with VFR conditions and 
light winds for most of the region. A period of MVFR ceilings 
associated with light rain is expected at RUT through much of 
the day, and for a short time at SLK, on the northern edge of a 
frontal boundary, before improving towards 21Z. Depending on 
persistence of rain, MVFR ceilings at RUT could linger further 
than indicated and will monitor trends. Wind direction at northern 
sites PBG/BTV/EFK will eventually shift northerly in the 18Z to 
21Z period, and northeasterly winds will pick up to around 10 
knots at MSS. Elsewhere winds should remain light and variable.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely FZRA,
Chance RA, Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Kutikoff

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