Expires:201901022100;;736830
FPUS51 KBTV 021130
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
626 AM EST Wed Jan 2 2019
VTZ006-022100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
627 AM EST Wed Jan 2 2019
.TODAY...Sunny. Highs around 17. Light and variable winds.
.TONIGHT...Cloudy. A slight chance of light snow until midnight,
then light snow after midnight. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches.
Lows around 13. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow
80 percent.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Light snow in the morning, then a chance
of snow showers in the afternoon. Total snow accumulation of 2 to
4 inches. Highs in the upper 20s. South winds 10 to 15 mph, becoming
west in the afternoon. Chance of snow 80 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Near steady temperature in the
lower 20s. Southwest winds around 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 30s. Southwest winds
around 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of rain or snow. Highs in the
upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows in the mid 20s.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the lower 30s.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 10 above.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 20s.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 10 above.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the upper 20s.
$$
Expires:201901021200;;736840
ASUS41 KBTV 021130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST WED JAN 02 2019
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-021200-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 15 7 70 NE5 30.36R WCI 8
MONTPELIER FAIR 12 8 84 CALM 30.30R
MORRISVILLE FAIR 11 6 81 N6 30.32R WCI 1
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 10 5 80 MISG 30.30R
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 7 3 84 CALM 30.29R
MIDDLEBURY* MOCLDY 16 10 78 CALM 30.34R
RUTLAND* FAIR 16 11 80 N3 30.31R
SPRINGFIELD MOCLDY 21 10 62 N3 30.30R
HIGHGATE* FAIR 10 6 81 CALM 30.39R
NEWPORT* FAIR 6 3 88 CALM 30.31R
BENNINGTON FAIR 19 13 77 CALM 30.28R
ISLAND POND* N/A 1 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 3 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 3 N/A N/A CALM N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 16 12 86 N6G12 N/A WCI 7
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 18 12 79 NE13 N/A WCI 4
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 19 14 79 N8 N/A WCI 9
$$
Expires:No;;737442
FXUS61 KBTV 021149
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
649 AM EST Wed Jan 2 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will build southeastward across New York
and New England today, bringing mostly sunny skies and
cold temperatures. An upper level disturbance approaching from
the Great Lakes region will bring increasing clouds with periods
of light snow areawide late tonight into Thursday morning.
Snowfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are generally expected
across the North Country, and may result in some minor travel
delays for the Thursday morning commute. A return to above
normal temperatures is expected for the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 641 AM EST Wednesday...Made minor adjustments to cloud
cover and temps. Appears mid-level wave and associated
altostratus will shift east of VT by mid-morning, leaving skies
sunny for the balance of the day. Still seeing some stratus
around 2000' AGL vcnty of Lake Champlain per observations at BTV
and PBG. Also expect these low clouds to dissipate by mid-
morning.
Previous Discussion...Winds as gradually lessening as 1028mb
sfc anticyclone over the Ottawa Valley builds sewd. Combination
of passing mid-level clouds and some lingering stratus across
the mountains is limiting radiative cooling somewhat, but still
a chilly start this AM with lows generally in the single digits
to low teens. The sfc anticyclone will be our controlling
weather feature today. It appears the passing altostratus will
clear the region to the east in fast westerly flow, setting up
generally sunny conditions and light winds for the daylight
period. Today's highs generally expected in the upper teens to
lower 20s.
Northern stream shortwave trough approaches from the Great
Lakes region late tonight, with 500mb trough axis crossing the
North Country between 12-15Z Thursday from west to east.
Moisture is limited - associated PW values generally
0.25-0.35" - but appears period of mid-level QG/synoptic
forcing is sufficient for widespread light snowfall mainly
06-13Z Thursday. Good dendrite growth should yield SLRs 15:1 to
20:1, and overall looking at 1-3" snowfall accumulation for the
region late tonight into the Thursday AM commute period. May see
some minor travel delays for the Thursday AM commute, but light
fluffy character of the dendrites should preclude any
significant issues with anticipated sub-advisory level event.
Increasing clouds and developing S-SE winds will keep
temperatures quasi- steady or slowly rise during the pre- dawn
hours Thursday, with temperatures mainly in the upr teens to
lower 20s overnight. Steady light snow ends quickly Thursday
morning, but included a chance for lingering snow showers across
the mtns for the balance of the day, even as skies become
partly sunny most valley sections. Temps moderate by Thursday
afternoon with highs 28-34F, warmest in the CT River Valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 243 AM EST Wednesday...The northern periphery of a surface
anticyclone over the Ohio River Valley will crest over the North
Country early Thursday night. This will allow for a brief lull
in snow showers before PoP chances slightly increase through
the night as the high shifts east. Modest warm air advection
through the latter part of the night will lead to some shallow
isentropic ascent, resulting in some light snow showers.
However, moisture transport/upper support is quite weak, which
will restrict total snow accumulations Thursday night to under
an inch in higher elevations, and little more than a few
flurriesto a dusting in lower elevations. Given the uptick in
moisture advection off Lake Ontario, expecting the best chance
for accumulations in northern New York, with lesser chances
further east, especially into the lower elevations of Vermont.
Any residual snow showers will taper off through the day Friday.
Friday will also be rather breezy due to a 45 kt low-level jet
traversing the region. Southwest/west winds generally 10 to 20
mph with gusts 20 to 30 mph can be expected...with the highest
winds expected in northern New York and higher elevations of
Vermont. Highs will be in the mid to upper 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 243 AM EST Wednesday...Subtle height rises and brief
subsidence over the region will allow for quiet weather Friday
night through Saturday morning.
The potential remains for a coastal low tracking near Benchmark
(40N 70W) to spread some precipitation into southern and
eastern portions of the CWA Saturday evening through Saturday
night. There still remains question as to how far inland
precipitation associated with the system will reach. The GFS and
FV3 have been fairly consistent over the past few model runs in
keeping precipitation associated with the system south and east
of our forecast area, while the ECMWF holds tight to a slightly
further inland track that would spread precip over portions of
the North Country. Given the run-to-run consistency of the
ECMWF, went ahead and maintained some 25 to 50% chance PoPs over
portions of the forecast area Saturday evening through Sunday
morning. Given the influx of warm, moist air into the mid-levels
over VT/ portions of northeastern NY with the ECMWF track of
the low, thermal profiles would support the potential for some
mixed precipitation. However, continuing to keep any mention of
mixed precip out of the grids for now given that the ECMWF is
still the outlier...but will continue to mention the
possibility in the AFD.
Regardless of the exact track the low takes, the system will
depart to the northeast Sunday, prompting a return to drier and
colder northwesterly flow. As a result, temperatures Sunday
night through Monday night will return to below seasonal norms.
The next system to potentially impact the area will take the
form of a developing surface low over the Plains under an upper-
wave ejecting out of the southern Rockies Monday night. As the
system tracks northeastward, confidence is increasing in
widespread precipitation spreading over the North Country during
the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. Still too early to tell
precipitation type as models are still struggling with the
location of the primary low...stay tuned for more details over
the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Generally expecting VFR-SKC thru 00Z this
evening. However, localized stratus vcnty of Lake Champlain
continue to affect BTV and PBG. Included tempo MVFR (BKN019)
conditions at BTV thru 14Z. Otherwise, mid-level clouds will
quickly shift east of the region by mid-morning leaving SKC.
Mid- level clouds redevelop from west to east after 00Z this
evening as shortwave trough approaches from the Great Lakes,
with cigs lowering to MVFR after 06Z in developing light snow
areawide. May see some IFR vsby in 1-2SM light snow 08-12Z
Thursday with HIR TRRN OBSCD. Minor impacts to aviation ground
operations expected early AM Thursday.
Outlook...
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN, Slight
chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SN, Slight chance RA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...RSD
LONG TERM...RSD
AVIATION...Banacos
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