Expires:202207042000;;661247
FPUS51 KBTV 041041
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
636 AM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022
VTZ018-042000-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
636 AM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022
.TODAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Light and variable
winds, becoming northwest around 10 mph this afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight, then mostly cloudy with
a chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the upper 50s. Light
and variable winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Highs in the lower 70s. South winds around 10 mph. Gusts up to
30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 50s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the lower 70s. North winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower
50s. Highs in the mid 70s.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 70s.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 50s.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.
$$
Expires:202207041100;;660927
ASUS41 KBTV 041030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON JUL 04 2022
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-041100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON PTCLDY 58 53 84 CALM 30.12R
MONTPELIER CLEAR 53 48 83 CALM 30.16R
MORRISVILLE CLEAR 47 46 97 CALM 30.13R
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 49 46 90 MISG 30.11R
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 49 47 92 CALM 30.14R
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 53 51 95 CALM 30.14R
RUTLAND* CLEAR 51 49 92 SE8 30.15R
SPRINGFIELD CLEAR 50 49 96 CALM 30.14R
HIGHGATE* FAIR 56 55 96 CALM 30.11R
NEWPORT* FAIR 55 52 92 CALM 30.13R
BENNINGTON CLEAR 48 48 100 CALM 30.16R
ISLAND POND* N/A 45 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 45 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 48 N/A N/A CALM N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 50 N/A N/A W24 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 59 48 67 W10 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;661600
FXUS61 KBTV 041046
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
646 AM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building over the Northeast will continue to bring dry
conditions and seasonal temperatures to the region today. A low
pressure system will produce periods of showers and isolated
thunderstorms late tonight through Tuesday night, followed by
generally dry weather through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 646 AM EDT Monday...Only minor adjustments needed to the
forecast at this time, mainly to match latest surface temp
satellite trends. Otherwise, an excellent end to the holiday
weekend is expected. Enjoy!
Previous Discussion from 341 AM...No change in the forecast for
this Independence Day holiday as surface high pressure centered
over the eastern Great Lakes this morning will drift over New
England this afternoon providing dry weather and seasonal
temperatures in the mid 70s to around 80. Expect generally clear
skies to start the day but much like yesterday we should see a
good amount of fair weather cumulus develop from mid-morning
onward with winds mainly less than 10 mph from the southwest
across northern New York and northwest across Vermont.
More unsettled weather remains on track to develop for the remainder
of the forecast period as a weak area of low pressure developing in
the lee of the Rockies today will ride over an upper level ridge
over the central CONUS tonight and across the BTV CWA on Tuesday. A
warm front extending eastward from the low center will spread rain
showers into portions of northern New York after midnight and across
central/northern Vermont after sunrise before lifting northeast
Tuesday afternoon. Other than the front itself, overall forcing is
rather meager as the best shortwave energy aloft splits the area
passing to our north and south, and the highest PWATs >2" remain
south of the region as well. Nevertheless, a solid 0.25-0.5" of rain
looks likely across central/northern areas with up to 0.25" south
along the warm front passage through early afternoon. Heading into
the afternoon and early evening, uncertainty lies in the potential
for any convection to develop in the warm sector which could enhance
precipitation. The latest NAM has backed off on the available
instability in the warm sector with less than 250 J/kg of CAPE, and
the GFS is even more stable, and therefore we've played down
convective chances for the afternoon. With the influx of PWATs
around 1.5-1.75" though anything that does get going will have the
potential to produce heavy rain. Highs Tuesday will be cool due to
clouds and precip in the upper 60s along the Canadian border to
around 80 in southern Vermont.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 341 AM EDT Monday...System we have been watching for several
days continues to produce showers/embedded rumbles of thunder on
Tues evening, before sfc high pres and drying air develops on Weds.
Progged sfc analysis places 1007mb low pres near Canaan, VT on Tues
evening, with cold frnt slicing acrs the dacks. This convergence,
along with digging 7h-5h vorticity wl produce additional
showers/storms on Tues evening acrs our fa. Instability is mainly
elevated in nature acrs our central/southern cwa thru 04z, before
quickly dissipating as much drier and cooler air developing toward
12z Weds. Helping enhance elevated instability is 50 to 60 knot
southwest-west 850mb jet ahead of boundary, but given very stable
low levels, not anticipating these winds to mix to the sfc, unless
transfered by isolated convective elements. Parameters still support
localized heavy down pours ahead of boundary with pw values in the
1.5 to 1.7" and warm cloud depths of 12-13kft, while orientation of
llvl jet helps with moisture advection/convergence. Highest likely
pops and qpf wl be focused acrs our central/southern cwa on Tues
evening, with rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.50, with localized
heavier amounts possible. Mid/upper lvl trof deepens on Weds as
850mb winds shift to the north at 20 to 30 knots and progged 925mb
temps cool slightly into the 15 to 18c range. These values support
highs mainly 70s on Weds, with lows 55 to 60 on Weds morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 341 AM EDT Monday...Very little change noted in 00z guidance in
large scale synoptic pattern which wl continue to feature mid/upper
lvl trof acrs ne conus. This wl result in more the same wx
conditions we have experienced much of this summer, with mild days
and cool nights, with the only chc of precip on Friday aftn/evening.
These weak sfc boundary and disturbance in the winds aloft still has
some uncertainty with regards to timing and potential impacts our
fa. However, not anticipating any hazardous or impactful wx in our
region over the next 4 to 7 days, based on crnt fcst.
The combination of building 1020mb sfc high pres, mainly clr skies,
and light trrn driven winds, wl result in cool overnight lows on
Weds night. Have continued to cut 3 to 5 degrees off NBM with trend
toward cooler MEX, which shows lows in the l/m 40s NEK/SLK to mid
50s CPV/SLV. Temps warm quickly under mostly sunny skies and good
mixing on Thurs, supported by progged 925mb temps in the 17-19c
range. Have bumped temps into the mid 70s to lower 80s, which is
very similar to values expected today. Guidance continues to show
limited phasing with weak elongated system on Friday into Saturday
with highest chc pops acrs our central/southern cwa. Highest pw
values of 1.2 to 1.4 wl be acrs Rutland/Windsor Counties, along with
best low level forcing from weak 1012mb low pres tracking acrs the
mid Atlantic States. For now have mention just showers, but if more
elevated instability develops on later runs, a few rumbles of
thunder wl be possible, as GFS does indicate sfc based cape values
in the 250-500mb range. Otherwise, temps remain steady in the mid
70s to lower 80s into next weekend with lows mainly upper 40s to
mid/upper 50s, as heat/humidity continue to stay well south of our
fa.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. FEW-SCT mid clouds across the region this morning will
trend to SCT fair weather cumulus around 060-080 from late
morning through early afternoon before becoming BKN-OVC after
00Z in advance of an approaching warm front. Showers along the
front will move into portions of northern New York after 05Z,
and towards the Champlain Valley around 12Z but no restriction
are expected until later Tuesday. Light and variable this
morning will trend to the WSW at KMSS/KSLK and WNW elsewhere at
7-9kts from mid-morning through the afternoon and abate back to
calm after 00Z. Exception will be KPBG where a southeast lake
breeze develops mid-morning up to 8kts.
Outlook...
Tuesday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Lahiff
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