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November 2022, Week 1

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Subject:
From:
Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Sat, 5 Nov 2022 06:50:02 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
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text/plain (261 lines)
Expires:202211051400;;584634
FPUS51 KBTV 050659
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
255 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022


VTZ018-051400-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
255 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022

.TODAY...Partly sunny this morning, then becoming mostly cloudy.
Highs around 70. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
30 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy until midnight, then becoming partly
cloudy. Breezy with lows in the lower 60s. South winds 15 to
25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy and breezy. Highs in the upper 60s. South
winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 50s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph. 
.MONDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. West winds 10 to 15 mph
with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...Clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in
the lower 40s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...Clear. Lows in the upper 20s.
Highs in the upper 40s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 30s. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.VETERANS DAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Highs in the upper 50s. 

$$


Expires:202211051100;;595168
ASUS41 KBTV 051030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT NOV 05 2022

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-051100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLEAR     61  54  77 S12       30.12S                  
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    61  50  67 VRB5      30.19F                  
MORRISVILLE    PTCLDY    62  51  67 SW3       30.14F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     46  43  89 MISG      30.15F                  
LYNDONVILLE*     N/A     52  48  84 SE3       30.18S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      59  56  91 S7        30.17R                  
RUTLAND*       PTCLDY    58  52  80 VRB6      30.19S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    44  42  93 CALM      30.21S                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      62  53  71 S7G20     30.09S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      53  50  89 S6        30.13S                  
BENNINGTON     PTCLDY    65  52  62 S7        30.21R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     48 N/A N/A SE1         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     39 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     61 N/A N/A SW8         N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     46 N/A N/A SW38G51     N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     61  54  77 S14         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     57  54  88 S18         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     61  55  82 S12         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;588132
FXUS61 KBTV 050804
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
404 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Another warm and dry day is expected with winds picking up out of 
the south. A cold front crosses the region on Sunday bringing some 
scattered showers to the north country. Showers come to an end on 
Monday, followed by drier weather for the rest of the week. Near 
normal temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by 
another warm up for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 402 AM EDT Saturday...Will have another warm day today strong
southerly flow increases ahead of approaching frontal system.
Pressure gradient continues to tighten with high pressure still off
the New England coast and frontal system approaches from the Great
Lakes. Clouds will increase through the day as well, though
shouldn't limit our daytime heating very much. Maximum temperatures
will reach the lower to mid 70s, and we will see more temperature
records broken. See climate section for more information. Winds will
be strongest over Lake Champlain and in the St Lawrence valley as
low level jet approaches the region this afternoon. Winds will peak
overnight as the jet passes overhead, and our strongest winds will
be in the downslope regions off the Adirondacks in Northern New York
and also areas along Lake Champlain. Some wind gusts up to about 40
mph are possible, locally higher. Minimum temperatures will be very
mild overnight, only dipping into the upper 50s to lower 60s. After
midnight some showers will begin to reach the St Lawrence valley,
with cold front pushing into our region. As the front crosses our
area on Sunday, it will be weakening and will notice line of showers
become more broken as the front crosses our area. Highest rainfall
totals will be over the southern St Lawrence valley where about a
half an inch of rain is expected, with just one or two tenths of an
inch expected elsewhere. Warm air will still be in place across our
area on Sunday ahead of the frontal passage, therefore we're
expecting another warm day with high temperatures reaching the upper
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 402 AM EDT Saturday...Sunday night into Monday, the cold front
will continue to edge southwards. The passage will be piecemeal in
typical North Country fashion with the moisture boundary through by
morning, the thickness boundary towards noon, and the wind shift
towards evening. Moisture will overrun the incoming cold, dry air
throughout Sunday night. It's not a typical set up though, with
shallow moisture. Increasing flow aloft is expected, though not with
the most favorable jet configuration. A slow moving deformation axis
will be present, and there's some modest instability given the time
of day and year with 100-150 J/kg of elevated CAPE. Looking at
forecast soundings, it is hard to see where the 1.00 to 1.25" PWATs
are coming from, but NAM and the GFS suggest values could climb that
high. The depth of moisture is shallow, and generally focused in the
low to mid levels. Some high res guidance has a thin strip of
convective showers, and the forecast reflects this with a fairly
small strip of 30 to 60 percent rain chances slowly shifting south.
If that holds together overnight, then spots could see 0.10" to
0.20", but if that narrow band fails to hold together, then amounts
will be lower and more localized.

It will be a warm start to the morning, with most locations in the
50s before dawn. Moisture is completely gone mid-morning, with skies
quickly clearing headed towards noon. Temperatures will warm into
the 60s as cold air will only slowly advect southwards. Breezy
behind the front

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 402 AM EDT Saturday...The extended forecast will be dry and
breezy. A 1042mb surface high will build across Ontario Province.
Winds will become northerly, and allowing a modified polar air mass
to shift south. After such a long stretch of unseasonable warmth, it
may feel shocking to see a relatively normal day on Tuesday, with
high temperatures struggling to get above 40. It should be a dry day
as well, with breezy northwest to north winds as that strong surface
high starts to shift southeastwards. The main thing to watch will be
how low dewpoints can get, and have begun to introduce drier
dewpoints into the forecast. Based on forecast soundings, it seems
dewpoints values in the teens are possible, but will wait to get
into the range of higher resolution guidance to get a better picture
of the what the profiles characteristics could be. Relative humidity
values of 40 percent or lower already look likely. Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning, the high will be parked over us, and this
should allow for a cool night into the 20s.

By Wednesday afternoon, that surface high will shift east, and warm
air will once again advect into the region, not too dissimilar to
what has occurred yesterday and today. The good news from a
climatological standpoint, is that this air mass is not nearly so
warm. Nevertheless, above normal temperatures will return with no
chances for precipitation until next Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06z Sunday....Our main aviation forecast concern is low
level wind shear over the next 24 hours. Surface winds have 
largely decoupled from winds aloft with terrain driving 5-8kts 
of southerly winds for most terminals. Winds aloft will increase
thru 12Z west to east out of the southwest with 40-50kts from 
925-850mb. This will support directional and speed shear issues 
from ridge levels to 010-020kft AGL. Mechanical turbulence 
extending at least 2kft above ridge levels should also be 
expected and will likely be denoted by ACSL across the 
Adirondacks and Green Mtns. SFC winds increase 12-18Z Saturday 
with gusts generally 15-25kts, but could intermittently reach 
30kts for channeled spots like the northern Champlain Valley. 
Wind flow will increase after the TAF period keeping concerns 
for turbulence and potential for wind shear for more sheltered 
locations. Otherwise, conditions will remain VFR through the 
period.


Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Some record high maximum and minimum temperatures are likely
through Sunday.

Below are the standing records: 

 Max Temp Records
Date     KBTV     KMPV     K1V4     KMSS     KPBG     KSLK
11-05   72|1938  73|2015  71|2015  73|2015  68|1948  74|1944 
11-06   75|1948  72|1978  70|2020  78|1948  73|2015  74|1945 

High Min Temp Records 
Date	KBTV     KMPV     K1V4     KMSS     KPBG     KSLK     
11-05  57|2015  53|1994  44|2014  46|1994  49|1975  50|1994 
11-06  58|2015  57|1948  48|2015  54|2020  51|1948  48|2015

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Neiles
CLIMATE...NWS BTV

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