Expires:201612262100;;490888
FPUS51 KBTV 261119
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
617 AM EST MON DEC 26 2016


VTZ006-262100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
617 AM EST MON DEC 26 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...FREEZING RAIN LIKELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. RAIN. ICE
ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTH WINDS
15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
80 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST
WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
50 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 15 TO 20. 
.THURSDAY...SNOW LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW
70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS
10 TO 15. 
.NEW YEARS DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 

$$


Expires:201612261200;;491212
ASUS41 KBTV 261130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST MON DEC 26 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-261200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    15   6  67 CALM      30.73F                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY     6   3  87 CALM      30.73F                  
MORRISVILLE    PTCLDY     5   1  83 CALM      30.74F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A      3  -2  79 MISG      30.76R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR       1  -2  85 CALM      30.72S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      10   6  81 CALM      30.72F                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    12   7  80 CALM      30.70S                  
SPRINGFIELD    PTCLDY     9   2  73 CALM      30.77R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      10   4  76 CALM      30.73F                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    11   7  84 CALM      30.68R                  
SUTTON*          N/A      5 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     -8 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A      0 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A      5 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     16 N/A N/A S9          N/A  WCI   4          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     18   9  68 NE1         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     19  16  86 NW8         N/A  WCI   9          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     23  16  74 N6          N/A  WCI  16          

$$


Expires:No;;491196
FXUS61 KBTV 261130
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
630 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system tracking from the Great Lakes into central Canada 
will bring a variety of weather to the region today into tonight 
including light mixed precipitation, rain and gusty winds. The 
weather pattern remains active for mid to late week with the next 
chance of widespread light snows arriving by Thursday into Thursday 
night. After milder weather returs tonight into Tuesday, 
temperatures gradually cool to more typical late December values by 
later this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 630 AM EST Monday...Forecast remains in good shape as of 
700 am. Did tweak cloud cover through late morning to blend 
toward current satellite/observational trends. Also tweaked 
hourly temperatures and dewpoints just a bit through this time 
period as well. Most of this on the minor side though. Have a 
great day.

Prior discussion...
An active 24-hour period remain on track for the region as a 
well- advertised storm system tracks through the northern Great 
Lakes and into central Canada. While overall impacts from this 
system are on the minor as opposed to major side there will be a
few things to monitor. First will be the potential for light 
mixed precpitation or freezing rain across portions of the area 
this afternoon into this evening as warm frontal boundary surges
into the area. Latest models continue prior idea of slowly 
warming boundary layer temperatures over time, though values 
will respond rather slowly in typical eastern VT locales, the 
northern SLV and sheltered valleys of the eastern Dacks. In 
these areas I've gone ahead and issued a Freezing Rain Advisory 
for the potential of some light icing (a few hundredths up to a 
tenth of an inch) with main impacts being slippery/difficult 
travel. Elsewhere, precipitation either will arrive after 
surface temepratures climb above freezing or will be too light 
to cause an issue (southern VT for example). There could also be
a small window of sleet and/or light snow at onset of pcpn in 
these areas, but light freezing rain will be the main concern 
here. 

Other concern will be development of strong and gusty south winds 
across the area, most focused in the Champlain Valley and to a 
slightly lesser extent in the Dacks/SLV. This morning's hi-res model 
output continues to show robust LLJ development in the valley on the 
order of 55-65 kts by later this afternoon into this evening with 
enough boundary layer mixing (to 925 mb) that a Wind Advisory has 
been issued accordingly. Most susceptible areas will be the VT side 
of the valley and lakeside areas in Clinton/Essex Counties in NY 
where gusts into the 40 to 50 mph range will be likely. This will 
lead to some downed limbs and a few trees leading to possible 
scattered power outages. Elsewhere gusts into the 30 to 40 mph will 
be possible in the Dacks and southern SLV. Lighter flow is expected 
in eastern VT.

Temperatures will slowly climb today, peaking in the upper 30s to 
lower 40s by later this evening before arrival of steadier 
showers/light rain put a brake on readings. By later tonight 
the system's cold front swings through the area with steadier rains 
becoming more confined to far southern counties by sunrise Tuesday.
Model-averaged QPF supports values generally in the 0.25 to 0.50 
inch range, though locally less in the Champlain Valley due to 
shadowing effects from a 70-80 kt southwesterly 850 mb jet.

By Tuesday cold front will sweep well east of the area with 
lingering precipitation becoming more orographically forced as flow 
trends westerly under modest cold thermal advection. High 
temperatures will generally occur in the morning (upper 30s to lower 
40s) before slowly falling in the afternoon under variably cloudy 
skies. Some light snow accumulations will be possible in this period 
across elevated terrain - perhaps an inch or two above 2000
feet.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 304 AM EST Monday...Upper level trof crosses the forecast
area overnight and we'll have some upslope light snow showers in
the higher elevations. Have gone with warmer model guidance for
temperatures Tuesday night with plenty of clouds across the
North Country. On Wednesday surface and upper level ridge will
briefly build into the area and chance for precipitation 
diminishes. Temperatures will be mild, lower to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 304 AM EST Monday...A fairly active pattern in the long 
term with several chances for precipitation. Expecting most of 
the precipitation in the extended portion of the forecast will 
be light.

Thursday and Thursday night will bring the next weather feature
to impact the North Country. GFS and ECMWF still not quite in
line with this system. Upper level trof to cross the area
Thursday and then a coastal low pressure system will develop to
our East by 00z Friday and deepen as it lifts Northeastward
across Maine Thursday night. At this time, looks like we will
be on the periphery of this system, but still see some light
snow especially across our Eastern Vermont zones. The track that
the ECMWF has could potentially bring some impacts to our
Vermont zones, but too much uncertainty at this time. 

Friday and Friday night will have some Northwesterly flow and
upslope mountain snow showers. Another weaker low pressure
system will approach for Saturday night into Sunday bringing our
next chance at some light snow. GFS and ECMWF also displaying
some notable differences with this system as well.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... 
Through 12Z Tuesday...VFR to gradually trend MVFR with
occasional IFR later today into tonight as light pcpn
overspreads the region. Pcpn will be most focused at KMSS 
through 21Z, then spread east and south to remaining terminals 
thereafter. Some mixed pcpn will be possible at time of onset, 
namely at KMSS and possibly at KPBG/KMPV before surface 
temperatures climb above freezing. Winds will begin light, then
trend moderate to strong south/southwesterly and gusty. Primary
wind concern will be in the Champlain Valley at KBTV/KPBG
terminals where channeled flow/low level jet development will
occur. Here gusts into the 35 to 45 mph at KPBG and 40 to 50 
mph range will be possible in the 18-03Z time frame with 
enhanced low level turbulence possible. Light rain/showers taper
off to scattered rain/snow shower activity after 08Z.

Outlook 12Z Tuesday through Friday...

12Z Tuesday through 18Z Wednesday...Mix of MVFR/VFR in 
scattered rain and snow showers. Gusty WNW winds into the 25 to 
35 kt range likely through 00z Wednesday.

18Z Wednesday through 12Z Thursday...mainly VFR under brief 
high pressure.

12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday...MVFR/IFR in areas of light
snow or light rain.

12Z Friday onward...areas of MVFR/IFR in scattered snow showers.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Freezing Rain Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST 
     this evening for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016.
     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this 
     evening for VTZ001-002-005.
NY...Freezing Rain Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST 
     this evening for NYZ026>028-031-034-035.
     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this 
     evening for NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...JMG

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont.

To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html