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March 2016, Week 3

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Subject:
From:
"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Sat, 19 Mar 2016 06:50:02 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
Parts/Attachments:
text/plain (194 lines)
Expires:201603192000;;295829
FPUS51 KBTV 190942
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
540 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016


VTZ006-192000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
540 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. 
.SUNDAY...SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS
IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 14. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. 
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 15. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. 
.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 40. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. 

$$


Expires:201603191100;;297099
ASUS41 KBTV 191030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-191100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      22   7  52 N9G16     30.08R WCI  12          
MONTPELIER     FAIR      16   4  59 W3        30.04R                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      17   7  64 CALM      30.05R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     19   7  59 MISG      30.02R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      15   5  65 CALM      30.01R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      19   9  66 CALM      30.09R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      19   9  63 W3        30.06R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      24   5  44 VRB3      30.06R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      19   6  57 N7        30.11R WCI  10          
NEWPORT*         N/A    N/A N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
BENNINGTON     FAIR      23   7  50 W3        30.05R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     14 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     14 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     18 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      5 N/A N/A W13         N/A  WCI -12          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     27  14  59 N18         N/A  WCI  13          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     27  10  50 NW9         N/A  WCI  17          

$$


Expires:No;;290545
FXUS61 KBTV 190748
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
348 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN DURING NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES
TREND MILDER BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SATURDAY...TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL HAVE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS BOTH
PERIODS...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TODAY AND TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 251 AM EDT SATURDAY...LATEST OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS,
INCLUDING THEIR ENSEMBLE SUPPORT ALL SHOW BUILDING CONSENSUS ON
TRACKING DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK AS A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM MONDAY MORNING BEFORE MORE RAPID
DEEPENING OCCURS ACROSS THE MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. THIS HAS BEEN
THE OVERALL TREND IN THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO, WITH THE LAST
HOLDOUTS IN THE UKMET/ECMWF NOW JUMPING ONBOARD THIS IDEA. WITH
THESE TRENDS IN MIND, HAVE LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY CONFINING
CHANCE VALUES RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM ACROSS OUR EASTERN VT ZONES
ONLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. GIVEN AN EXTANT
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER EVEN THIS MAY BE OVERDONE, BUT AT LEAST THE
IDEA OF A LESSENING WINTER WEATHER THREAT IS CONVEYED. ELSEWHERE
WE STILL COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED NORTHERN MOUNTAIN FLURRIES HERE
AND THERE WITH PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
BUT THIS SHOULD BE MINOR AT BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN ON THE SEASONABLY COOL SIDE WITH DAYTIME MAXES IN THE 30S
ACCOMPANIED BY OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO
20 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 251 AM EDT SATURDAY...THEREAFTER A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
LOOKS TO EVOLVE BY MID TO LATE WEEK. AFTER A QUIET MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE, A LEAD CLIPPER-
TYPE NORTHERN STREAM LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA BY
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ACCOMPANYING SNOW/RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPON PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE THE POLAR FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND TREND STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING BODILY NORTHWARD BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER
FLOW AMPLIFIES IN ADVANCE OF MORE ROBUST MIDWEST ENERGY LIFTING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THUS LOOKING AT ON AND OFF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH MARGINALLY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND A
CONTINUED THREAT OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN EARLY LOOK AT THERMAL PROFILES ALSO SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE THREAT
OF LIGHT ICING ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DEVELOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNS THE SHALLOW COOL LAYER. IN ANY
REGARD, BY LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MUCH MILDER AIR STREAMS
NORTH INTO THE REGION WITH MAXES CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
INDEED A QUICK LOOK AT MEAN 925 MB TEMPS BY NEXT FRIDAY WOULD
SUGGEST 60F+ IS INDEED POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...A LARGELY QUIET PERIOD UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. SKC CONDITIONS. NORTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NORTH WINDS OF 8-12 KTS
OVERNIGHT, SUBSIDING TO 6-10 KTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUN - 18Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUN - 12Z TUE...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCE IFR AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST.

12Z TUE - 00Z WED...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z WED ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES

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