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SKIVT-L  November 2018, Week 1

SKIVT-L November 2018, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 7 Nov 2018 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (266 lines)

Expires:201811072100;;941342
FPUS51 KBTV 071051
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
548 AM EST Wed Nov 7 2018


VTZ006-072100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
548 AM EST Wed Nov 7 2018

.TODAY...Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the lower 50s. West winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers until
midnight. Lows in the mid 30s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up
to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly
cloudy. Highs in the lower 40s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts
up to 25 mph. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 30. Northwest winds
around 10 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Rain. Highs around 40. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of
rain near 100 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Rain. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of rain near
100 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Rain or snow showers likely. Little or no snow
accumulation. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation
60 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows in the lower 20s. 
.VETERANS DAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 30. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows in the upper 20s. 
.TUESDAY...Snow or rain likely. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent. 

$$


Expires:201811071200;;942986
ASUS41 KBTV 071130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST WED NOV 07 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-071200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    53  39  59 SW15G25   29.74R                  
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    48  38  68 VRB7      29.75R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    50  40  68 SW8       29.71R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     49  40  71 MISG      29.69R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    46  40  79 SE7       29.72R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    49  39  68 S8        29.80R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      50  37  61 SW12G21   29.82R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      50  37  61 MISG      29.81R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    50  43  76 SW13G20   29.70R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    49  39  68 W12G24    29.69R                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      49  35  58 MISG      29.87R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     48 N/A N/A SW9         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     45 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     48 N/A N/A SW8G20      N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     36 N/A N/A W48G64      N/A  WCI  20          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     52  43  71 SW18G32     N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     54  41  62 W30G37      N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     52  41  66 S18         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;942414
FXUS61 KBTV 071113
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
613 AM EST Wed Nov 7 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Another day of gusty winds and mild temperatures is expected 
across the North Country today. These gusty winds will diminish
heading into the evening as the pressure gradient weakens and a
period of calmer weather is expected on Thursday. A developing
low pressure system will track just to our west on Friday and
bring widespread rainfall at sea level and a mix of rain, sleet,
freezing rain and snow at elevations above 2500 ft. Precipitation
will taper off heading into Saturday but continued showers are 
possible throughout the weekend with temperatures cooling off
through the weekend as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 613 AM EST Wednesday...No major changes with the forecast
package. Shower activity continues on the western slopes of the
Adirondacks with Saranac Lake reporting several bouts of rain 
showers over the past few hours. The dewpoint depression in the 
Champlain Valley is up to 14 degrees which should keep much of 
Vermont on the dry side throughout the day. Gusty winds continue
across the North Country with southwesterly winds gusting in 
the 20 to 30 mph range. Even with periods of sun this afternoon,
temperatures should largely be pretty steady with temperatures 
in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Previous Discussion...Winds were a little slow to ramp up
overnight but as soon as surface observations began to show pressure
rises, winds quickly began gusting in the 20 to 30 mph range across
the North Country. The winner continues to be the Saint Lawrence
Valley as the SW to NE oriented valley is acting to channel the
stronger winds mixing down from the low level jet currently over the
region. The depth of the mixed layer still remains very shallow at
around 1000 to 1500 feet. However, the depth of the mixing layer
will increase slightly during the morning and afternoon hours which
will allow for gusty winds to continue and even strengthen a little.
The combination of weak cold air advection (CAA) and increasing
surface temperatures will act to steepen low level lapse rates which
will help mix more wind down to the surface. However, the core of
stronger winds off the surface will slowly shift eastward throughout
the day which will bring an end to the gusty winds come nightfall
across much of the North Country.

As for precipitation, moisture remain trapped on the western slopes
of the Adirondack Mountains this morning based on satellite and
radar imagery. The southwesterly flow aloft, which is perpendicular
to the Adirondacks, is still producing a downslope component over
the Champlain Valley (same over eastern VT east of the Green
Mountains) and has caused breaks in the clouds. Dewpoint depressions
have been increasing through the overnight hours so it appears
rather unlikely that any precipitation is able to make it east of
the Adirondack Mountains today.

Thursday should be a pretty decent day across the region with
temperatures near normal for the most part with breaks in the clouds
with some sun. Colder air will continue to filter in aloft as an
upper level trough pivots over the region but the lack of 
moisture should lead to a drier day across the North Country.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 356 AM EST Wednesday...Overall little change from what we've
been highlighting for the end of the work week and into the first
half of the weekend with high confidence that we'll see a widespread
precipitation event Friday through Saturday. Synoptic setup features
a broad longwave trough over the entire CONUS east of the Sierras
and a sharp shortwave trough lifting out of the Great Plains Friday
and through northern New England on Saturday. Deterministic guidance
continues to show a double-barrel low pressure system forms at the
surface Friday afternoon/night with the primary low over the eastern
Great Lakes and secondary low off the New England coastal waters.
This puts the North Country in a favorable convergence zone which
will lead to widespread precipitation developing from southwest to
northeast through the day Friday, and over the entire region Friday
night. Main difference from previous runs is the expected ptype
where forecast soundings continue to develop a mid-level warm nose
Friday evening into the early overnight which introduces the threat
for some mixed precip from mid-slope to the summits. Below about
2000 feet mainly rain is expected, but across the higher elevations
snow at the onset will likely mix with sleet and/or freezing rain
Friday night before transitioning back to snow early Saturday. Too
early to nail down the finer details, but the potential exists for
up to 4" of snow and 1-2 tenths of an inch of ice.

By Saturday morning, the double-barrel low will be pushing
north/northeast of the region with precipitation becoming more
orographic in nature and back to a valley rain and mountain snow
mix. Could see some additional snow accumulations across the higher
terrain, especially downwind of Lake Ontario where some lake
enhanced moisture will help to produce additional snow showers in
the Adirondacks and northern Vermont above 1000 feet. Precip tapers
off Saturday night as the low(s) pull farther northeast of the
region and high pressure begins to build in from the west/southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 356 AM EST Wednesday...Quieter weather is expected for the
latter half of the weekend and into Monday as a brief ridge of high
pressure looks to build in from the west/southwest. Temperatures
will be seasonally cool with highs only in the 30s and lows in the
teens and 20s. Beyond Monday, the pattern looks to become active
again with the potential for a strong system to affect the region
Monday night into mid-week. Lots of uncertainty right now with this
system with low tracks all over the place from outside the benchmark
to western New England so confidence is very low as to whether we
see precipitation and what that precip could be. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...VFR conditions have continued through 
the early morning hours with the exception of KSLK as moisture 
continues to upslope over the western slopes of the Adirondack 
Mountains. This moisture will be difficult to scour out, thus 
ceilings ranging from 1200 to 2200 ft are likely through the 
majority of the day with no real improvement until after 21Z. 
The remaining sites will remain VFR with ceilings gradually 
increasing through the afternoon before dropping to around 5000 
ft after 06Z Thursday. Gusty winds will be the primary concern 
today as southwesterly winds will be gusting in the 15 to 28 kt 
range through most of the day. Winds will begin to taper off 
around 00Z but KMSS will likely hold onto the gusty winds 
thought the forecast package. 

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Definite RA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA,
Definite FZRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Veterans Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake wind advisory in effect today for southwest winds of 15 to
25 knots. These winds will likely persist through tonight with 
seas 1 to 3 feet, except localized waves near 4 feet in the open
waters.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Clay
MARINE...Clay

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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September 2008, Week 3
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September 2008, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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June 2008, Week 3
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June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
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January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
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November 2007, Week 3
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October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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July 2007, Week 3
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July 2007, Week 1
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June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 3
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
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January 2007, Week 1
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October 2006, Week 3
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October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
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September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
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March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 3
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September 2004, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 3
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April 2004, Week 1
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March 2004, Week 3
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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