032
FPUS51 KBTV 310803
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT SAT JUL 31 1999

NYZ028-035-VTZ001-002-005-009-311500-
ADDISON-CHITTENDEN-E ESSEX NY-FRANKLIN VT-GRAND ISLE-NE CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURLINGTON...MIDDLEBURY...PLATTSBURGH...
ST. ALBANS
400 AM EDT SAT JUL 31 1999

.TODAY...HAZY SUNSHINE...HOT AND HUMID. RECORD HIGH IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S. SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH.
.TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AND BREEZY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOW 70 TO 75. SOUTH WIND 15 TO 25 MPH BECOMING
WEST LATE. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM.
HIGH 85 TO 90. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOW 55 TO 60.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY.  HIGH IN THE 70S.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY.  LOW IN THE 50S.  HIGH 75 TO 80.
.WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.  LOW 55 TO 60.
HIGH AROUND 80.

$$

VTZ003-004-006>008-010-311500-
CALEDONIA-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTPELIER...NEWPORT...ST. JOHNSBURY
400 AM EDT SAT JUL 31 1999

.TODAY...HAZY SUNSHINE...HOT AND HUMID. NEAR RECORD HIGH AROUND 90.
SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
BY MIDNIGHT. LOW 65 TO 70. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH BECOMING WEST
LATE. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY...THEN PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE
OF AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. HIGH IN THE MID 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40
PERCENT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOW IN THE 50S.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY.  HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY.  LOW IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S.  HIGH
IN THE 70S.
.WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.  LOW IN THE 50S.
HIGH AROUND 80.

$$

VTZ011-012-311500-
RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD
400 AM EDT SAT JUL 31 1999

.TODAY...HAZY SUNSHINE...HOT AND HUMID. NEAR RECORD HIGH 90 TO 95.
SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
BY MIDNIGHT. LOW AROUND 70. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH BECOMING WEST
LATE. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY...THEN PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE
OF AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. HIGH AROUND 90. CHANCE OF RAIN 40
PERCENT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOW 55 TO 60.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY.  HIGH IN THE 70S.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY.  LOW IN THE 50S.  HIGH 75 TO 80.
.WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.  LOW 55 TO 60.
HIGH AROUND 80.

$$

NYZ026-027-311500-
N FRANKLIN NY-N ST LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MALONE...MASSENA
400 AM EDT SAT JUL 31 1999

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY...HOT AND HUMID. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. NEAR
RECORD HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASING TO 10
TO 20 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...
MAINLY THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG WIND. LOW AROUND
70. SOUTHWEST WIND 15 TO 20 MPH BECOMING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE
OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE MID 80S.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOW IN THE 50S.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY.  HIGH IN THE 70S.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY.  LOW IN THE 50S.  HIGH 75 TO 80.
.WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.  LOW 55 TO 60.
HIGH AROUND 80.

$$

NYZ029>031-034-311500-
S FRANKLIN NY-S ST LAWRENCE-SW CLINTON-W ESSEX NY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LAKE PLACID
400 AM EDT SAT JUL 31 1999

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY...HOT AND HUMID. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. NEAR
RECORD HIGH AROUND 90. SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...
MAINLY THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG WIND. LOW 65 TO
70. SOUTHWEST WIND 15 TO 20 MPH BECOMING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE
OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH 80 TO 85.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOW 50 TO 55.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY.  HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY.  LOW IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S.  HIGH
IN THE 70S.
.WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.  LOW IN THE 50S.
HIGH AROUND 80.

$$

KJC





            National Weather Service - [1]Click here for *NEWS*
   Click for - [2]New list of HARDWARE and SOFTWARE vendors to allow you
                  to utilize EMWIN live weather broadcasts

     _________________________________________________________________

FXUS61 KBTV 310735
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT SAT JUL 31 1999

NEAR RECORD OR RECORD HEAT LIKELY TDY AS UPR RDG BRFLY BLDS ACRS RGN
WITH H8 TMPS APCHG 20 AND 579 THKNS.  MCS OVR UPR GT LKS MAY BRING
SOME DEBRIS CLDS TO W ZNS ERLY THIS AM...OTRW XPCT MOSUNNY SKIES
WHICH SHD ALLOW TMPS TO RCH 90 TO MID 90S ACRS FA.

RECORD HIGHS TDA
BURLINGTON     92     SET IN 1975
MONTPELIER     90     SET IN 1975
ST JOHNSBURY   94     SET IN 1908 AND 1917
MASSENA NY     95     SET IN 1975

INCRG CLDS LT TDA W ZNS AHD OF PREFNTL TROF AND THOUGHT ABT ADDING
CHC LT DAY TSTM BUT WL HOLD OFF TIL EVNG.  PREFNTL TROF TO MOV THRU
RGN TNGT.  ASSCD LL CNVGC WL ACT ON NARROW AXIS OF PW/S 1.75-2" AND
H8 DWPTS +15 TO PROD LN SHWRS/TSTMS TNGT...MAINLY THIS EVNG W ZNS
REACHING E/S ZNS BY MIDNGT.

BEST CHC SVR WL BE ACRS W ZNS ERLY THIS EVNG AS CAPES/MID LVL LPS
RATES AND STGST MID LVL WNDS MAX OUT ARND 00Z ACRS ST LAW VLY.
ACTVTY SHD WKN AS IT MVS EWD TNGT AS CAPES/LPS RATES DECRG AFT 00Z.
GOOD H8 DRYING 00-06Z W ZNS AND 06-12Z E ZNS AS THTE RDG AXIS MVS EWD
WHICH SHD BRING END TO SHWRS/TSTMS.

TIMG OF FROPA SUN TRICKY BUT IT APRS FROPA WL BE 12-18Z SUN ACRS FA.
ADVCTN OF LWR DWPTS DURG DAY WL BE A NEG FCTR FOR CNVCTN SUN AFTN...
ESP W ZNS WHERE DRYING WL BE MOST PRONOUNCED.  KEPT CHC AFTN TSTM E
ZNS WHERE HIR DWPTS WL BE SLOWER TO DROP...BUT LEFT OUT OF W ZNS
WHERE MDLS SHW BEST STABILIZATION.  H8 TMPS STARTING OUT QUITE WRM
(16-18) SUN WITH COOLING REALLY NOT EVIDENT TIL AFT 18Z SO POTL FOR
ANOTHR HOT DAY (90+)...ESP E/S ZNS IF ENUF SUNSHINE.  WENT ABV FWC
TMPS SUN AND THINK BTV CUD RCH 90 AGAIN.  IF BTV GETS 90 SUN IT WL
MAKE 3RD HEAT WAVE OF SUMMER.

NO CHGS TO XTNDD.  NICE DAY MON WITH LOW DWPTS AND PLSNT TMPS.

.BTV...NONE.

KJC





     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 310029
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
830 PM EDT FRI JUL 30 1999

RDR/SAT AND LTGNG DATA ALL CONFIRMING DECREASING ACTVTY AS MAIN
INGREDIENT (DAYTIME SFC HEATING) ABATING.  DAYTIME SFC HEATING AND
WK SFC TROF CONTRIBUTED TO TSRA ACTVTY THIS AFTN/EVE...VRY WEAK WND
FLOW ALLOWED FOR SLOW MOVING HVY RAIN PRODUCERS AND THAT/S ALL.

HVST RAIN ACRS PTNS OF ESSEX CTY NY WITH LTL ACTVTY ACRS VT.

REST OF TNGT WL FEATURE PTLY CLDY SKIES FM DECAYING TSRA LCLLY AS
WELL AS SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FM MN/WI MCS THAT WL THREATEN TO RIDE
OVR THE RIDGE TOWARD FA LATE.  MUCH OF ACTVTY SHLD RIDE S OF FA ALG
5800M HEIGHTS AND 5820M THICKNESS WITH RIDGE SLWLY BUILDING ACRS
FA OVRNGT/SAT.

OTHERWISE...NO CHGS TO CRNT FCST AND AGREE THAT FA SHLD BE
SUFFICENTLY CAPPED SATURDAY WITH BEST THREAT ERLY SUNDAY MRNG AND
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTN.

DAY 14 OF 90+ HEAT TDY WITH A HIGH OF 91 DEGREES. DAY 15 NEARLY A
CERTAINTY SATURDAY AS WELL AS POSSIBLE RECORD HEAT FOR SOME LOCALES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 31ST:
BURLINGTON     92     SET IN 1975
MONTPELIER     90     SET IN 1975
ST JOHNSBURY   94     SET IN 1908 AND 1917
MASSENA NY     95     SET IN 1975

WRKZONES AVBL ARD 9 PM.

OTHER CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA TO SINK YOUR TEETH IN...

A FORECAST HIGH OF 95 AND A FORECAST LOW OF 65 FOR SATURDAY/31ST
WOULD YIELD THE FOLLOWING AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR JULY AND WHERE
THIS COMPARES TO OUR WARMEST YEARS.

PROJECTED JULY 1999 AVERAGE TEMPERATURE: 74.3 DEGREES
PROJECTED JULY 1999 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 85.5 DEGREES

NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE OR WARMER DAYS:
26     SET IN 1949
21     SET IN 1944
20     SET IN 1988
18     SET IN 1995
17     SET IN 1947
15     SET IN 1911/55/75

JULY MONTHLY AVERAGE (MAX AND MIN) TEMPERATURES:
75.4 DEGREES     1921
74.7 DEGREES     1995
74.6 DEGREES     1975
74.2 DEGREES     1897/1994
73.8 DEGREES     1949/55

JULY MONTHLY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
86.5 DEGREES     1949
85.9 DEGREES     1975
85.6 DEGREES     1955
85.4 DEGREES     1995
85.1 DEGREES     1921


.BTV...NONE.

SLW





     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 301821
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
218 PM EDT FRI JUL 30 1999

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUING TO
GROW OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS AREAS WEST OF THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY.  COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S HAS LED TO SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF
-3 TO -5 OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF VORT MAX HEADING INTO
CENTRAL NEW YORK.  THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY...
SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCATTERED WORDING FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE.  WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE TO
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE MORE FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS.

ON SATURDAY...AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND PROVIDE A SUBSTANTIAL CAP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.  THIS WILL INHIBIT AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BECOME INCREASING
UNSTABLE AS MANY AREAS SEE TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE 90S.  WITH
THE DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 60S...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.  AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...SEVERAL SITES ARE IN
JEOPARDY OF BREAKING RECORDS.  SOME RECORDS FOR TOMORROW INCLUDE 92
IN BURLINGTON...90 AT MONTPELIER...95 AT MASSENA...AND 94 AT
ST.JOHNSBURY. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION NEAR RECORD HEAT IN THE
ZONES.

WELL DEFINED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE TO MOVE IN FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME.  CAP
SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
AND INCLUDE TIMING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END TOWARD MORNING ON THE NEW YORK SIDE
WHILE THE VERMONT SIDE SHOULDN'T SEE ANY CONVECTION UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

MAIN COLD FRONT TO COME THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  WOULD
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS IN THE MORNING FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT
WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED BEHIND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.  THEN AS
FRONT APPROACHES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REDEVELOP.  INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR THE THIS REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

AFTER COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO
BE THE RULE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.  NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

WORK ZONES IN ALBADMBTV

EVENSON

.BTV...NONE.





     _________________________________________________________________


   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/emwin/emwinnoaa.htm
   2. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/emwin/winven.htm
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html


106
ASUS51 KALB 311002
SWRVT

VERMONT STATE HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT JUL 31 1999

CITY           SKY/WX   TEMP DEWPT RH  WIND    PRES    REMARKS

VTZ001>014-311100-

.... VERMONT ....

BURLINGTON     CLEAR     65   62   90  CALM    29.77S
MONTPELIER     FOG       61   60   97  CALM    29.86R  VSB<1/4
RUTLAND         N/A      63   61   93  SE8     29.81R
ST JOHNSBURY    N/A      63   62   97  CALM    29.81R
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    62   61   97  CALM    29.83R  FOG
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     60   59   96  CALM    29.82R  FOG
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     61   60   97  S3      29.82R

.......... KEY ..........
    WCI - WIND CHILL INDEX
    VSB - VISIBILITY IN MILES
    HX  - HEAT INDEX
    FAIR- INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET, WITH NO
          SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY

$$



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