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January 2021, Week 4

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Subject:
From:
Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Wed, 27 Jan 2021 06:50:03 -0500
Content-Type:
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Expires:202101272100;;124757
FPUS51 KBTV 271124
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
621 AM EST Wed Jan 27 2021


VTZ018-272100-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
621 AM EST Wed Jan 27 2021

.TODAY...Light snow. Little or no additional snow accumulation.
Highs in the upper 20s. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow
near 100 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Snow
accumulation up to 1 inch possible. Lows around 15. North winds
around 10 mph. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly
sunny. A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Highs around 17.
Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph in the
afternoon. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Light snow accumulation possible. Much colder with lows
2 below to 8 below zero. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts
up to 35 mph. Wind chill values as low as 29 below. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs around 5 above. Northwest winds
15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Wind chill values as low as
32 below. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Cold with lows around 5 below. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs 5 to 10 above. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Cold with lows 5 below to zero. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 20. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows 5 to 10 above. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 20s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow.
Lows 10 to 15. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow. Highs
in the mid 20s. 

$$


Expires:202101271200;;125193
ASUS41 KBTV 271130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST WED JAN 27 2021

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-271200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT SNOW  27  23  85 N3        29.95R FOG              
MONTPELIER     LGT SNOW  22  21  96 CALM      29.96R FOG              
MORRISVILLE    LGT SNOW  24  21  88 CALM      29.94R FOG              
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     24  22  91 MISG      29.92R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FLURRIES  23  21  94 CALM      29.93R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    LGT SNOW  24  23  96 CALM      29.94R                  
RUTLAND*       LGT SNOW  26  24  92 E3        29.92R FOG              
SPRINGFIELD    LGT SNOW  24  21  88 CALM      29.95R FOG              
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    26  24  90 NW3       29.97R                  
NEWPORT*       LGT SNOW  22  20  93 CALM      29.95R                  
BENNINGTON     LGT SNOW  26  23  88 CALM      29.89R FOG              
ISLAND POND*     N/A     21 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     21 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     21 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     18 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS

$$


Expires:No;;124827
FXUS61 KBTV 271126
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
626 AM EST Wed Jan 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snows will slowly wane in coverage today into Thursday, 
becoming increasingly confined to higher elevations over time. 
Additional accumulations will be light. Seasonably mild 
temperatures today trend colder by tomorrow, and especially by 
Friday into Saturday as a brief shot of arctic air swings 
through the region. Temperatures moderate by early next week 
with another system possibly affecting the region by later 
Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 626 AM EST Wednesday...The forecast remains in good shape
for today. I adjusted PoPs upward just slightly over the next 3
hours (thru 15Z or so) to account for current waning light snow
activity across the region. Otherwise, no other changes were 
needed. Have a great day!

Prior discussion...
Areas of light snow and flurries 
continue this morning as low pressure and associated synoptic 
lift continue to weaken as they move through the region. Overall
snowfall totals have generally averaged from a half inch to 
about 3 inches in favored locales so far. Given the continued 
weakening trend expected today, have opted to cancel our 
existing Winter Wx Advisories for Essex County, NY and 
Rutland/Windsor counties. Additional accumulations today should 
average an inch or less area wide with coverage becoming 
increasingly confined to the higher terrain over time. Highs 
today within a few degrees of late January seasonal norms - mid 
20s to lower 30s.

By tonight into Thursday a general re-blossoming of snow shower 
activity is expected across the northern mountains as blocked low 
level northwesterly flow interacts with lingering moisture and aids 
in orographic enhancement. Additional accumulations through the 24-
hr period will be light, with one half to 2 inches a reasonable 
estimate above 1000 feet at this point and spot totals of 3-5 inches 
at summit level. In the broad valleys just a few tenths at most 
expected. Low temperatures tonight remain seasonable in the upper 
single digits and teens, coldest west where the arrival of a well 
advertised arctic front will arrive late. Then trending colder and 
blustery on Thursday as the front swings through the region. Highs 
mainly in the 12 to 22 range - slightly milder south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM EST Wednesday...Still expecting frigid temperatures
Thursday night into Friday with breezy northwest winds. A closed
upper-level low will descend from Ontario, Canada bringing a blast
of arctic air along with it. Overnight lows will mainly be in the
single digits below zero to near zero within the Champlain 
Valley. Little reprieve is expected on Friday with high 
temperatures only in the single digits above zero to low teens. 
In addition, a strengthening pressure gradient will yield 
sustained northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph Thursday night through
Friday evening. We could see some gusts up to 25 mph during 
this time as well thanks to a well- mixed boundary layer as 
temperatures cool aloft. Overall, this will result in wind 
chills of -15 to -25 Thursday night through early Friday 
morning, and wind chills of -5 to -15 during the day on Friday.

Meanwhile, there exists a lingering chance of light snow showers
across portions of the Adirondacks, northern Greens, and the
Northeast Kingdom as mid-level moisture is advected around the
backside of the upper low. Paired with upslope northwesterly flow
and steepening lapse rates, we could see an additional 1 to 2 inches
of snow across these areas on Friday. Chances for snow will diminish
Friday evening as high pressure begins to build in.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EST Wednesday...High pressure will build in for the
weekend resulting in dry weather and mostly sunny skies. Still,
temperatures will remain frigid, especially Friday night into
Saturday as clearing skies allow temperatures to again drop below
zero. However, occasional cloud cover cannot be ruled out across the
higher terrain which in turn would limit the amount of cooling
overnight. A gradual warming trend is expected thereafter with high
temperatures returning to mid 20s by Monday. The next low pressure
system will approach the North Country late Monday, though model
guidance is in good agreement that the bulk of precipitation will
remain to our south. Still, there exists a chance of light snow
across southern and eastern Vermont late Monday through early
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Widespread light snows to slowly taper 
off across the area through 18Z, though mainly OVC MVFR cigs 
should persist through much of this forecast cycle. Some brief 
IFR possible at KMSS early, and again for a period at KSLK this 
afternoon/early evening. Winds light and generally less than 10
kts through the period with directional variability mainly from
the north/northwest.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Hammond
LONG TERM...Hammond
AVIATION...JMG

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