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March 2006, Week 2

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Subject:
Heuristic Traps, was Re: Mansfield/Hellbrook 3/7
From:
Roger Klinger <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Thu, 9 Mar 2006 19:41:12 -0500
Content-Type:
text/plain
Parts/Attachments:
text/plain (32 lines)
>On Wed, 8 Mar 2006 21:34:40 -0500, allen taylor <[log in to unmask]>
>wrote:
>
> I did however get to wittiness a good
>>deal of avey activity. I was with fellow lister Christean a
>>snowboarder from stowe and we had broken trail up the chin and
>>basically had to race a group of ssaholes behind us who were
>>constantly trying to overtake us after we set the bootpack and busted
>>the traverses.




Allen,
Before you race anyone else for tracks in avalanche prone backcountry, please go to this site, and 
download the PDF of the research article on Heuristic Traps:

http://www.backcountrysafety.com/a_heuristic_traps_in_accidents.php

Focus espescially on the part of the article dealing with the Scarcity Heuristic.  After reading it, I'm 
sure you'll agree that your behavior the other day mimics that of a lot of knowledgeable people 
that ended up as statistics in the study.  

Be smart out there.  You've got a lifetime of powder turns ahead of you. Powder just isn't that rare.  
Even in a yttihs year like this I've got over 20 powder days, and I wouldn't be surprised if you do 
to.

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