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April 2014, Week 1

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Subject:
From:
"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Thu, 3 Apr 2014 06:50:01 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
Parts/Attachments:
text/plain (190 lines)
Expires:201404032000;;087527
FPUS51 KBTV 030804
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
403 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

VTZ006-032000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
403 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.FRIDAY...SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTH
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
90 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 40. 
$$

Expires:201404031100;;093772
ASUS41 KBTV 031030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU APR 03 2014
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-031100-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     SUNNY     33  22  63 NW7       30.14S                  
MONTPELIER     SUNNY     29  22  75 W5        30.11S                  
MORRISVILLE    SUNNY     32  20  61 NW15G21   30.11R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     33  21  61 MISG      30.06S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    31  21  66 W3        30.08R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      33  24  69 NW8       30.12R                  
RUTLAND*       SUNNY     32  21  64 W5        30.10S                  
SPRINGFIELD    SUNNY     24  21  88 CALM      30.09R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      32  23  69 CALM      30.14S                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    32  23  69 NW5       30.09S                  
BENNINGTON     SUNNY     29  24  82 CALM      30.11R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     30 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     19 N/A N/A NW15        N/A  WCI   5          
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     32  27  80 W6          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     32  27  80 NW7         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     36  25  64 NW12        N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;089326
FXUS61 KBTV 030843
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
443 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 443 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
SUNNY TODAY AS LOW CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
QUEBEC MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TODAY...PER LATEST SATELLITE
LOOP. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME COLD ADVECTION ALOFT TO ALSO
MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA TODAY...SO MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT
BE AS MILD AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAY TOO
COOL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES THE LAST FEW DAYS...SO HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND
HAVE GONE ABOVE GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 443 AM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH MIDDAY ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. GFS MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO COLD WITH MIN
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER NAM MOS AND ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. EXPECTING SKIES TO START OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RAIN WILL
HOLD UNTIL LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER
18Z ON FRIDAY. HAVE AGAIN GONE WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. GFS MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO COOL WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER NAM
MOS GUIDANCE AND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPERATURES. COULD BE SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH FREEZING... BUT EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT.
RAIN TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...HAVE GONE A BIT COOLER THAN MOS GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
EXPECTING AROUND ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE
PATTERN ACRS THE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7...WHICH FEATURES
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS THE SE REGION AND GENERAL TROF ACRS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS PLACES OUR CWA IN A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ALOFT WITH NEAR NORMAL PRECIP AND TEMPS ANTICIPATED THRU THE
PERIOD. THE MAIN SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR CWA WL BE LOCATED ACRS THE
MS VALLEY AREA ON SUNDAY...AND TRACK TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY
AND WEST OF OUR CWA ON TUESDAY. AS FULL LATITUDE TROF DEVELOPS AND
BECOMES CLOSED OFF...DEEP GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WL ADVECT ACRS
THE EASTERN CONUS AND INTO OUR REGION...ALONG WITH MILD LLVL
THERMAL PROFILES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS REACH 4 TO 6C ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AS CLOSED CIRCULATION FROM SFC THRU 700MB PASSES TO OUR
WEST. THESE TEMPS WITH SOME SUN ON MONDAY SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...CLOUDS/SOUTHEAST SFC FLW
AND PRECIP WL KEEP TEMPS IN THE U30S TO M40S ON TUESDAY...WITH
MAINLY A COLD RAIN ANTICIPATED. GIVEN THE EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRES HAVE INCLUDED POPS TO HIGH LIKELY/LOW
CAT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. OVERALL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AND
0.75"...WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ACRS THE TRRN.
UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO DEVELOP TUES INTO WEDS WITH REGARDS TO
AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT...WITH TROF AXIS TO OUR WEST...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN LIMITED COOLING INITIALLY BEHIND SYSTEM. WL
MENTION TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL FOR WEDS...WITH POPS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TRRN. A GENERAL COOLING TREND WL FOLLOW FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENS ACRS THE NE
CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...THE 11-3.9 SATL SHOWS SCATTERED STRATUS
DEVELOPING ACRS THE DACKS THIS MORNING WITH FEW AT 2200 ALREADY AT
SLK. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLW AND WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORT WL
COMBINED WITH SOME BL RH TO PRODUCE A LLVL STRATUS DECK AT SLK AND
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS TODAY. WL MENTION MVFR CIGS BY 09Z AT
SLK WITH VFR ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY SHALLOW RH PROFILES.
OTHERWISE...A FLURRY IS POSSIBLE AT SLK THIS MORNING...PER LATEST
GFS/NAM DATA. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY.
HIGH LVL CLOUDS WL INCREASE AFT 00Z TONIGHT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FROM 06Z FRIDAY
THRU 18Z...BEFORE CLOUDS LWR AND PRECIP ARRIVES AFT 21Z FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AT
MPV. PERIODS OF MVFR IS LIKELY WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING LLVL JET
WL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR LLVL WS AND TURBULENCE ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOME SFC GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN
ALIGNED SOUTH TO NORTH VALLEYS. A SLOW IMPROVING TREND IS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY WITH SOME LEFTOVER MTN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT
MPV/SLK. HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

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