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January 2021, Week 4

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Subject:
From:
Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Sat, 23 Jan 2021 06:50:07 -0500
Content-Type:
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Expires:202101232100;;353641
FPUS51 KBTV 231002
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
458 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021


VTZ018-232100-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
458 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy this morning, then becoming partly sunny.
A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Highs 7 to 13 above.
Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph this afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy and windy, cold with lows around zero.
Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph. Gusts up to 45 mph, increasing to
55 mph after midnight. Wind chill values as low as 25 below. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny and windy. Highs around 14. Northwest
winds 20 to 30 mph. Gusts up to 55 mph, decreasing to 45 mph in
the afternoon. Wind chill values as low as 26 below. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 1 above. Northwest
winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. 
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 19. Northwest winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows 5 to 10 above. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 20s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 10 above. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 20s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 10 above. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 20s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 10 above. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 20. 

$$


Expires:202101231200;;357400
ASUS41 KBTV 231131
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2021

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-231200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FLURRIES  16   9  74 N6        29.94R WCI   7          
MONTPELIER     LGT SNOW  12   9  87 NW9       29.87R FOG     WCI   0  
MORRISVILLE    LGT SNOW  13   7  77 N8        29.88R WCI   2          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     15   5  64 MISG      29.84R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FLURRIES  12   5  74 W7        29.83R WCI   1          
MIDDLEBURY*    LGT SNOW  15   9  74 N8G17     29.90R WCI   5          
RUTLAND*       LGT SNOW  16  12  86 N6        29.88R FOG     WCI   7  
SPRINGFIELD    MOCLDY    20   9  62 VRB5      29.86R WCI  13          
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    13   3  66 NW8       29.97R WCI   1          
NEWPORT*       LGT SNOW  11   6  81 W6        29.86R WCI   1          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    21  11  65 NW8G18    29.88R WCI  11          
ISLAND POND*     N/A     10 N/A N/A W7          N/A  WCI   0          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     10 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     10 N/A N/A NW2         N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      3 N/A N/A NE3G43      N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS

$$


Expires:No;;354672
FXUS61 KBTV 231021
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
521 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Localized scattered snow showers and flurries will persist today 
over the higher terrain of the northern Greens. Cold and raw 
conditions can be expected today with breezy northwesterly winds and 
cold temperatures. Wind chills tonight will fall to -10 to
-25 degrees F. Wind Chill Advisories have been issued for the
northern Adirondacks and portions of northeastern Vermont tonight
where the coldest wind chills are expected.  Seasonably cold
temperatures are expected through Monday before values moderate
from mid week onward.  Outside of a few light snow showers across 
the higher terrain, mainly uneventful weather is expected for 
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 513 AM EST Saturday...Quick morning update to tweak
temperatures. Most of the area is staying a little warmer than 
forecast, thus have nudged up low temperature forecast slightly.
Daily highs have already occurred around midnight, but
temperatures continue to fall (albeit a little slower than
expected) and will continue the cooling trend into late morning.
Will see a small climb of a few degrees this afternoon, but
overall most of the daytime heating will be offset by continuous
cold air advection. On track for a cold and blustery day.
Previous discussion follows...

Orographically-driven snow showers will continue through this 
morning over the northern Adirondacks and northeastern Champlain 
Valley. Froude numbers showing blocked flow along the northern 
Greens, which is responsible for continuous light snow showers 
over much of Chittenden and Franklin Counties in Vermont this 
morning. Expecting blocking to decrease some during the late 
morning hours and into the afternoon, which should allow for 
lingering showers in the eastern Champlain Valley to shut off as
the day progresses. Meanwhile, at higher elevations of the 
northern Greens, expect light and fluffy snowfall to continue 
through the day today and into tonight, with an additional 4-8+ 
inches possible over the higher peaks. 

Otherwise, very cold and blustery day on track for the North Country 
as northwesterly flow pulls in arctic air from Canada.  Relatively 
tight pressure gradient over the area between departing low pressure 
over the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure over the Ohio Valley 
will result in westerly/northwesterly winds 10-15 mph today, with 
gusts 20 to 25 mph expected.  High temperatures today will only be 
in the low to mid teens.  The combination of the gusty winds and 
cold temperatures will yield wind chills below zero degrees F for 
much of the area today.  

The core of coldest air moves into our forecast area tonight, which 
will allow overnight temperatures to fall into the single digits 
above and below zero.  Coldest readings will be observed over the 
northern Adirondacks.  Winds will remain breezy overnight, which 
will limit radiational heat loss but at the same time create 
bitterly cold wind chills. A Wind Chill Advisory is in place for the 
northern Adirondacks in northern NY along with Essex and Orleans 
counties in Vermont, where wind chills below -20 are expected 
tonight.  Elsewhere, overnight wind chills will be between -10 and -
20 degrees F.  Sunday will be another raw day, although winds will 
begin to diminish some as high pressure begins to build in from the 
west. Highs will be in the teens, wind chills between -5 and +10 
degrees F. No precipitation is expected Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 327 AM EST Saturday...Sunday night is shaping up to be the
coldest night of the weekend. High pressure is building into the
region and this will weaken the pressure gradient and most areas
will experience light winds. Relatively clear skies will lead to
radiational cooling and with fresh snowpack everywhere lows should
easily get in the single digits above and below zero. Places such as
Saranac Lake should see double digit values below zero...forecasting
-12F right now. High pressure remains over the area on Monday and
dry weather is expected once again. Highs will generally range from
the upper teens to upper 20s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 327 AM EST Saturday...Still looking at no significant weather
in the extended forecast period...Monday night through Friday. Flow
aloft backs from the northwest to the west Monday night and Tuesday
and this will help to keep main storm track well to our south. Some
of our southern areas will may be on the fringe of some light snow
and have maintained a slight chance across south central Vermont and
into portions of northern New York on Tuesday. Otherwise looking at
high pressure over eastern Canada remaining in place to keep us in a
dry weather pattern with just a slow warming trend toward the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Variable ceilings and visibilities across
the forecast area as terrain-driven localized snow showers
continue. These snow showers are forecast to impact KBTV through
around 12Z with MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities before ending
between 12Z and 15Z. Also being impacted by the snow showers is
KSLK, although showers for KSLK are not forecast to be as
persistent through the night and should come to an end around
10Z. Elsewhere, will see primarily MVFR/low VFR ceilings with
occasional visibility reductions from passing snow showers, but
persistent snow is not expected at KRUT, KMSS, KPBG, or KMPV.  

Despite residual snow showers coming to an end later this
morning, will see some MVFR ceilings develop/continue through
the afternoon today as low-level moisture is trapped near the
surface. A trend towards widespread VFR ceilings can be 
expected after 00Z. 

Winds will be northwesterly/westerly at 4-7 knots, increasing to
7-12 knots with gusts 15 to 25 knots after 15Z. 

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Chill Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EST 
     Sunday for VTZ003-004.
NY...Wind Chill Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EST 
     Sunday for NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Duell
NEAR TERM...Duell
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Duell

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