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March 2021, Week 2

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Subject:
From:
Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Mon, 8 Mar 2021 06:50:03 -0500
Content-Type:
text/plain
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Expires:202103082100;;646797
FPUS51 KBTV 080839
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
336 AM EST Mon Mar 8 2021


VTZ018-082100-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
336 AM EST Mon Mar 8 2021

.TODAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 20s. Northwest winds around
10 mph, becoming west this afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of freezing drizzle
after midnight. Breezy with lows in the lower 20s. Southwest
winds 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph, increasing to 50 mph
after midnight. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of freezing drizzle
in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs in the
upper 30s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph in
the morning. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. Northwest
winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. South winds
10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy and breezy. Lows in the upper
30s. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy and breezy. Highs in the lower 50s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain.
Windy with lows in the lower 40s. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Windy with highs in the upper 40s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows 15 to 20. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 20s. 

$$


Expires:202103081200;;654108
ASUS41 KBTV 081131
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST MON MAR 08 2021

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-081200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLEAR      8   2  76 E3        30.42R                  
MONTPELIER     CLEAR      0  -4  83 CALM      30.38S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     -2  -7  79 CALM      30.40S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A      2  -2  83 MISG      30.38R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR       1  -2  88 CALM      30.36R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR       5   1  81 CALM      30.41S                  
RUTLAND*       CLEAR      6   2  83 SE7       30.39S WCI  -6          
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR      8   2  76 CALM      30.39R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR       4  -2  77 E3        30.44R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      -1  -4  88 CALM      30.38R                  
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     12   3  67 SW3       30.38S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     -9 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     -8 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     -8 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      5 N/A N/A W16         N/A  WCI -14          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     14   9  79 E1          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A    N/A N/A N/A SE1         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     16  14  93 SE3         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;646388
FXUS61 KBTV 080830
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
330 AM EST Mon Mar 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal system crosses Northern New York and Vermont 
tonight into Tuesday bringing just a chance for some light 
precipitation. Warming trend commences on Wednesday on strong 
southerly flow, temperatures will be well above seasonal normals
from Wednesday through Friday. A cold front crosses the region 
on Friday bringing additional light precipitation, and dropping 
temperatures back to near seasonal normals on Saturday, below 
normal on Sunday. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 329 AM EST Monday...The first half of today will feature 
sunny skies and light winds as high pressure crests over our 
area this afternoon, temperatures will rise into the upper 20s 
to lower 30s. Winds will pick up out of the south southwest 
during the afternoon as clouds also move into the the area from 
the west. This will be in advance of a warm front approaching 
from the Great Lakes area associated with a weak low pressure 
system which will track north of our forecast area overnight. As
the low tracks north of our area, associated warm and cold 
fronts are dragged across our forecast area. Not a lot of 
moisture associated with this system, and will initially have a 
dry air mass in place. Best forcing will also remain north of 
our region, closer to parent low. Therefore have kept 
probability of precipitation to just a chance and mainly in the 
higher elevations. We dry aloft while moisture lingers at low-
levels as the night progresses, so any snow showers could 
transition to more of a freezing drizzle, especially after 
midnight. Any snow accumulation would be less than an inch and 
limited to higher terrain, while little to no ice accretion is 
expected. Temperatures will likely fall early, then rise or hold
steady overnight, especially from the Green Mountains westward,
as a west-southwest jet proceeds the upper trough's arrival. 
Lows will be coldest in the Northeast Kingdom, where it will 
drop into the mid teens, while areas west of the Green Mountains
will remain in the mid and upper 20s. Light mountain snow 
showers or freezing drizzle will linger into the morning hours 
on Tuesday. But it will be short lived as another ridge of 
surface high pressure will edge into our area by Tuesday 
afternoon. Tuesday will begin our warming trend and temperatures
on Tuesday afternoon will top out in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 329 AM EST Monday...Upper ridge builds into the region 
Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will promote dry weather with 
high pressure over the area Tuesday night and then moving east 
on Wednesday. This will allow for southerly flow to develop and 
bring above normal temperatures to the area with highs in the 
upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 329 AM EST Monday...Southwest flow aloft becomes 
established over the area Wednesday night through Thursday 
night. This will continue to bring above normal temperatures to 
the region. Temperatures will remain above freezing Wednesday 
night and Thursday night and highs on Thursday will be in the 
50s. High temperatures will be about 20 degrees above normal on 
Thursday and low temperatures Wednesday night and Thursday night
will be 20 to 25 degrees above normal. The weather will be dry 
Wednesday night, but then increasing moisture on Thursday could 
bring a few light rain showers to the area, especially across 
northern New York. Forcing will be a limiting factor. This will 
change Thursday night into Friday as a shortwave trough moves 
across eastern Canada and this will bring a cold front into the 
area during this time period. The threat of rain will increase 
during this time period, but precipitation amounts at this time 
look to be less than a quarter inch. Typically this would not be
enough precipitation to bring about a flood concern given the 
extended period of snowmelt due to the above normal 
temperatures. Nevertheless flood concerns will need to be 
monitored as we could lose quite a bit of snow later this week. 
Some of the long range data for river levels suggest mainstem 
rivers in southern Vermont could reach action stage. A greater 
concern would exist more on smaller rivers and streams, 
especially with the potential for ice to break up. The front 
moves through the area Friday afternoon and the flow aloft turns
northwest. This will bring colder air back into the region and 
bring the snowmelt to and end over the weekend. Looks like some 
shortwaves want to move down into the region and this could 
bring a few snow showers to the area, but precipitation chances 
look low and will only mention a slight chance at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will continue through this
afternoon. Clear skies and light winds overnight. After 18Z, 
some high and mid-level clouds will gradually advance eastward 
with any ceilings expected to remain above 6000 feet through 
00Z, then a gradual lowering through 06z to low VFR or MVFR. 
Winds will become steadier and out of the south or southwest 
after 20Z. 

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
FZDZ.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance RA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Neiles

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