Expires:201607262000;;492159
FPUS51 KBTV 261027
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
625 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016
VTZ006-262000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
625 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016
.TODAY...PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 60. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH
UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...BECOMING WEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
$$
Expires:201607261100;;492182
ASUS41 KBTV 261030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-261100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON FAIR 74 59 59 W8 29.79R
MONTPELIER MOCLDY 70 59 68 W6 29.86R
MORRISVILLE FAIR 67 61 81 CALM 29.81R
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 64 63 96 MISG 29.78R
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 66 63 89 CALM 29.83R
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 66 66 100 CALM 29.82R
RUTLAND* FAIR 66 64 93 CALM 29.84R
SPRINGFIELD FAIR 66 62 87 NW5 29.83R
HIGHGATE* MOCLDY 71 61 71 SW5 29.79R
NEWPORT* MOCLDY 69 62 77 W12G20 29.80R
BENNINGTON FAIR 70 66 87 SW7 29.87R
SUTTON* N/A 66 N/A N/A MISG N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 63 N/A N/A MISG N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 61 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 57 N/A N/A NW25 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 73 64 73 SW7 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 75 64 69 W20 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A N/A N/A N/A W16 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;492180
FXUS61 KBTV 261030
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
630 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly builds into the region today and Wednesday.
Dry weather is expected along with a warming trend as temperatures
by Wednesday will be well into the 80s with a few lower 90s
expected. The pattern will change later Wednesday night through
Friday as a broad trough of low pressure moves into the region and
enhances the potential for precipitation. High temperatures will
be at or slightly above normal on Thursday and Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM EDT Tuesday...Quiet weather is expected in the near
term period. Have made just some minor tweaks based on current
temperatures and some clouds already developing over parts of
northern New York.
Today: Dry weather is expected as high pressure begins to slowly
build into the region. Water vapor imagery shows plenty of dry
air over the region in the mid and upper levels...but there will
be lower level moisture in place. This combined with steepening
lapse rates should help generate some shallow cumulus clouds over
the higher terrain...but no precipitation is expected.
Temperatures at 925 mb support the idea of highs in the upper 70s
to mid 80s with a few spots reaching the upper 80s.
Tonight: High pressure continues to build into the region for a
continuation of dry weather. Any shallow cumulus over the higher
terrain will dissipate around sunset and clear skies/light winds
will take over. This could lead to some fog in the favored
locations. Low temperatures will range from the mid 50s to mid
60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 331 AM EDT Tuesday...00z guidance suite did not indicate
the need to make any substantial modifications to the forecasts
we've been offering for the last couple of days. So with that, a
few thoughts on each day
Wednesday: all guidance indicates 925mb temperatures will be about
23C (give or take a degree) as the westerly flow aloft will advect
in a little piece of the heat that is solidly in place to our west
and south. given plenty of sunshine and expected deep mixing to
about 6000ft (800mb), we'll end up with a deep dry adiabatic lapse
rate and even super-adiabatic near the surface. what does this mean?
well, a hot day. 23C at 925mb supports temperatures topping out into
the lower 90s in the valleys. Well into the 80s elsewhere. Followed
the previous forecaster and painted in temperatures that were closer
to the warmest guidance. There will be a weak cold front north of
the border during the day that will likely spark some t-storms
across Quebec. By very late in the afternoon/early evening, that
front will have sagged south enough that we may have and isolated
shower/t-storm working their way through US Customs and Border
Protection. Thinking any isolated convection would probably be
getting into far northern NY and Vermont just before sunset. Minimal
instability, so not looking for anything strong. Given the warm
airmass, we will continue to have minor amounts of instability much
of the night. Add in a little bit of low-level forcing with that
weak front, and isolated shower or t-storm Wednesday night for
northern sections seems reasonable. Temperatures will only drop to
the mid-upper 60s for most areas.
Thursday: Weak front continues to slowly move south, and will act as
a focus for scattered showers and a few t-storms. Models show
precipitable water values rising above 1.5" as the moisture pools
along the front, so could be an isolated heavy downpour. More in the
way of clouds and a bit cooler temperatures aloft will result in
temperatures about 5 to 7 degrees cooler than Wednesday. Still above
normal however. Ranging from lower 80s across the north to perhaps
around 90 down in the Connecticut River valley around Springfield
VT. Kept PoPs in the 35-45% range at this point. Later forecasts may
show an increase. At this point not expecting any strong storms as
guidance doesn't show over the top instability or dynamics. Probably
more just "garden variety" type stuff. Thursday night the bulk of
the showers will push south of the region -- perhaps still hanging
on around Rutland. Overnight lows will range from the upper 50s to
lower 60s. Might be still a bit muggy down south.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 331 AM EDT Tuesday...00z GFS and ECMWF continue to be
similar to their own previous runs, and have diverging solutions
between one another. So confidence is not all that high,
especially for the weekend and early next week. At least there
does not appear to be any high impact/significant weather on the
horizon.
Friday: Weak/diffuse front will be somewhere to the south, but close
enough that southern sections will see more clouds and a chance for
a shower or isolated t-storm. Could end up being a sunny/dry day
closer to the Canadian border. GFS and ECMWF are in decent
agreement, though GFS has a low pressure moving south of New England
during the day. Not really a player in our weather. Temperatures
should be close to normal (upper 70s to lower 80s).
Saturday/Sunday: Model differences more significant. GFS takes it's
surface low off the coast, and we have a light northerly flow
develop which cools us down and dries us out. At face value, GFS
says below normal temperatures with highs only in the 70s on
Saturday, and back to near normal Sunday with plenty of sun. ECMWF
keeps the diffuse front stationary to our south thru the weekend,
and has a couple of weak lows move along that front. It paints a
generally mostly cloudy weekend with scattered showers both days.
Given this continued uncertainty, the best course of action remains
sticking to a blend. Thus 20-35% PoPs for both days (lowest north,
highest south).
Monday: both models indicate a shower is not out of the question,
but how they get to their solution is different. GFS in the process
of bringing back warmer air and more moisture, while ECMWF shows a
shortwave zipping out of the region during the afternoon with
slightly cooler temperatures coming in. We'll know exactly how
things will turn out on Tuesday of next week. For the time being,
the forecast will feature a blend of the previous 12z data plus the
latest 00z output from the GFS and ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 06z Wednesday...Relatively quiet weather is expected with
VFR conditions expected through much of the period. There may be
some brief periods of MVFR and IFR conditions between 08z and
12z...mainly at KSLK due to fog and low clouds. Winds between 12z
and 16z will become west-northwest at speeds of 10 knots or less
before become light and variable after 00z.
Outlook 06z Wednesday through Saturday...
06z Wed - 00z Fri: Mainly VFR under high pressure. Isolated
showers possible Wed/Thu afternoons.
00z Fri - Sat: Increasing chances for widespread MVFR showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Evenson/Neiles
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont.
To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html
|
