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June 2014, Week 3

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Subject:
From:
"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Mon, 16 Jun 2014 06:50:03 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
Parts/Attachments:
text/plain (191 lines)
Expires:201406162000;;498849
FPUS51 KBTV 160741
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

VTZ006-162000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
340 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. 
$$

Expires:201406161100;;505407
ASUS41 KBTV 161030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-161100-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOSUNNY   52  50  93 CALM      30.14S                  
MONTPELIER     FOG       45  45 100 CALM      30.20R VSB 1/4          
MORRISVILLE    FOG       46  44  93 S3        30.18R VSB 1/4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     44  43  96 MISG      30.16R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      45  42  89 CALM      30.18S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      49  49 100 CALM      30.15S                  
RUTLAND*       SUNNY     46  45  93 SE6       30.17S                  
SPRINGFIELD    PTSUNNY   46  45  96 CALM      30.17R FOG              
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      56  53  90 CALM      30.15R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      45  43  95 SW3       30.17R                  
BENNINGTON     SUNNY     46  44  93 CALM      30.16R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     46 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     28 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     46 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     52 N/A N/A N3          N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     59  54  82 NE1         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     57  55  94 S12         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     55  52  88 SE6         N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;500320
FXUS61 KBTV 160814
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
414 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY 
SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND MILD TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL 
PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE. 
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT 
ARRIVES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY NIGHT 
INTO WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURNS FOR THE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS BUILDING MID/UPPER 
LVL RIDGE ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC/NE CONUS WITH WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
RIBBON OF MOISTURE ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE NOTED LOTS
OF HIGH LVL MOISTURE SPILLING OVER RIDGE...RESULTING IN HIGH THIN
CLOUDS ACRS OUR REGION...WHICH WL PERSIST TODAY. GIVEN LIMITED
RETURNS ON UPSTREAM RADAR AND LACK OF SFC OBS SHOWING PRECIP
ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND...I WL CUT POPS EVEN FURTHER
TODAY...AND MENTION ONLY SCHC FAR WESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...REST
OF CWA WL BE DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE M/U 70S TO NEAR 80F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT SUNDAY...FCST BECOMES A BIT MORE ACTIVE AND COMPLICATED 
AS A RESULT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ACRS OUR
CWA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDS. FIRST...WEAK S/W ENERGY AND DECAYING
RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR FA BTWN
00Z-06Z TONIGHT. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF DRY AIR IN PLACE ASSOCIATED
WITH RIDGE AND SYSTEM SHEARING APART IN THE FLW ALOFT...WL ONLY
MENTION SPRINKLES ATTM. TEMPS WL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...THINKING M/U 40S NEK/SLK TO NEAR
60F CPV/BTV.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN 
ACTIVE WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM/MOIST 
AIR TRYING TO ADVECT NORTH INTO OUR REGION WL HELP TO PRODUCE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. THINKING 
MOST OF TUES WL BE DRY FROM THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH AND BEST 
850 TO 700 MB RH PROGS TO OUR WEST...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED ULVL 
FORCING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...SUPPORTING 
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON TUES NIGHT...ECMWF FOR 3 OR 4 DAYS 
STRAIGHT CONTS TO SHOW A DECAYING MCS MOVING ALONG THERMAL RIDGE 
AXIS ACRS OUR CWA. MEANWHILE...GFS SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ASSOCIATED 
WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS 
TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TURNING SE INTO 
THE BETTER STORM RELATIVE INFLOW OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TUES NIGHT 
ACRS WESTERN/CENTRAL NY. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TRACK OF 
DECAYING MCS AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACRS OUR CWA...BUT THINKING 
GFS TRACK ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...LOOKS MORE 
REASONABLE ATTM...BASED ON PROGGED THICKNESS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED 
INSTABILITY AXIS TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE 
INCREASES TUES NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING 85H JET OF 20 TO 30 
KNOTS ACRS WESTERN NY/PA. CAPE VALUES JUMP BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG BY 
15Z WEDS ACRS SOUTHERN VT...AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRNT. THIS 
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH EMBEDDED S/W'S FROM DEEPENING MID/UPPER 
LVL TROF WL INTERACT WITH PW VALUES BTWN 1.50 AND 1.75" TO PRODUCE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT ON WEDS...BECAUSE OF EXPECTED
CLOUDS IMPACTING SFC HEATING AND TIMING OF SFC BOUNDARY OCCURRING
DURING THE MORNING HRS...BEST CHS WOULD BE ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ZNS. FEEL OVERALL THREAT WL BE LIMITED AND TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
MENTION IN HWO ATTM. WL MENTION CHC (30/40%) TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDS...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE U50S TO M60S TUES NIGHT AND HIGHS
IN THE M/U70S TO L/M 80S WEDS. WARMEST VALUES ACRS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT MONDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISHING. DRIER AND COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW...WITH
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
OUR WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL
BE RATHER TRANQUIL WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOW
HUMIDITY...AS A LARGE CUTOFF LOW DESCENDS SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR. OVER THE WEEKEND...THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON US AS IT SLIDES TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS BY SUNDAY. FOR
NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS ON SUNDAY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AT
ONLY ABOUT 20 PERCENT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 70S...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...MODERATING A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION 
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG TO
DEVELOP...WITH GREATEST THREAT AT SLK/MPV WHERE A PERIOD OF IFR
POSSIBLE THROUGH 11Z. REST OF TAF SITES NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RESTRICTIONS...ALTHOUGH MSS MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR. MORE HIGH CLOUDS ON MONDAY...WITH LOWERING VFR CIGS TOWARDS
EVENING WITH APPROACH OF WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. MAY SEE A
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT COVERAGE
MINIMAL AND IMPACT SO LOW TO NOT WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.
WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE...BUT GENERALLY
TURNING SOUTHERLY.
OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY..A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE 
LIGHT...WITH ONLY BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY LIGHT SHOWERS.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY 
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS 
TUESDAY-FRIDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

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