Expires:201511102100;;138799
FPUS51 KBTV 101125
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
621 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015


VTZ006-102100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
621 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015

.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...THEN CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN
THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.VETERANS DAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. 
.THURSDAY...RAIN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY OR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY OR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. 

$$


Expires:201511101200;;138897
ASUS41 KBTV 101130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-101200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLEAR     29  25  85 CALM      30.26F                  
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     25  23  92 CALM      30.30S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     25  20  81 CALM      30.29S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     25  20  81 MISG      30.28S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      26  26  97 CALM      30.28R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      31  31 100 CALM      30.24F                  
SPRINGFIELD    PTCLDY    26  24  92 CALM      30.27F                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      32  29  89 SE5       30.26F WCI  27          
NEWPORT*       FAIR      25  24  94 SW5       30.27S WCI  20          
BENNINGTON     PTCLDY    36  32  85 S3        30.22F                  
SUTTON*          N/A     28 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     25 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     25 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     41 N/A N/A W13         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     39  36  87 SE6         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     37  37 100 SE5         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;139476
FXUS61 KBTV 101146
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
646 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH DRY WEATHER TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN
TO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TREND
COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 623 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AT
THIS TIME WILL SLIDE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WE CAN
EXPECT SUNSHINE TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SOUTH AND WEST PRIOR TO 00Z. WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SO WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. SLIGHT WARMING IN 850MB
TEMPS...SO DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS WE CAN EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EST TUESDAY...CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MID LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS PERIOD. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OFF COAST OF
DELMARVA THIS EVENING. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR 40N 70W
AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHEST POPS (AROUND 70
PERCENT) FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING INDICATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS INDICATED
OVER THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH...WITH JUST A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS INDICATED FOR THE FAR
NORTH. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AFTER ANY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS COME TO AN END...EXPECT RATHER CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

A PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN WAKE OF
DEPARTING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
EAST OF THE GREENS TO AROUND 40F IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEYS.
 
WEATHER CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RATHER RAPIDLY ON THURSDAY AS NEXT
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...WITH OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHING
LATER IN THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
EASTERN VERMONT TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 246 AM EST TUESDAY...UNSETTLED BUT SEASONAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. POTENT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
IT SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC.
ATTENDING WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT BRINGING A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP
ON SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AS THE
COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY, THE PARENT MID/UPPER
LOW STRENGTHENS WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR UPSLOPE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. CLOSED 700MB LOW PASSES JUST NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON NORTHWEST FLOW. PROGGED FROUDE
NUMBERS OFF THE GFS SHOW PRIMARILY UNBLOCKED FLOW FROM 06Z
SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY AND A 925-850MB NORTHWESTERLY JET OF
OF 35-45KTS INDICATING PRECIPITATION WILL FALL CLOSE TO THE
MOUNTAIN RIDGE CRESTS AND ON LEE SIDE. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE VALLEY FLOOR WITH PRIMARILY SNOW ACROSS THE
SUMMITS WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 2000 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY MORNING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM
THE REGION FOR PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF, THOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL REMAIN SO HAVE KEPT IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. FROM THIS POINT ONWARD IN THE FORECAST, GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE EXITING UPPER
LOW OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO SHIFT THE LOW OFFSHORE ALLOWING
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER LOW IN PLACE A GOOD 24
HOURS LONGER BLOCKING THE RIDGE'S EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AT THIS
POINT, IT'S ANYONES GUESS WHICH SOLUTION IS RIGHT SO WILL OFFER A
BLEND THOUGH LEAN TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST WITH SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY. CEILINGS CURRENTLY ARE VFR, BUT AN MVFR DECK JUST TO OUR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO KRUT/KSLK/KMSS, BUT
AS THE DECK LIFTS FURTHER NORTHWARD EXPECT IT TO LIFT ENOUGH TO BE
VFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALSO INCREASE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 00Z, WITH RAIN MOVING INTO KRUT AFTER
04Z. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS, AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING, TO
NORTHWEST/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 
12Z WED - 00Z THU...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS.
00Z THU - 12Z THU...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
12Z THU - 00Z SAT...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
00Z SAT - 00Z SUN...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
RUTLAND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AWOS SYSTEM ARE STILL UNAVAILABLE.
FAA TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM. WE DO NOT HAVE ANY
ESTIMATE ON WHEN DATA WILL BECOME AVAILABLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...BTV STAFF

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