Expires:202304051500;;262965
FPUS51 KBTV 050741
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
337 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023
VTZ018-051500-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
337 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
5 AM EDT THURSDAY...
.TODAY...Cloudy. A slight chance of light rain this morning, then
rain showers likely with a chance of freezing rain this
afternoon. Ice accumulation of up to a tenth of an inch. Highs in
the mid 40s. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph
this afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
.TONIGHT...Rain showers. A chance of freezing rain until
midnight, then a slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight.
Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall after midnight. Ice
accumulation around a trace. Breezy with lows in the upper 30s.
South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of
precipitation near 100 percent.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Highs in the upper 50s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to
30 mph in the morning. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. West
winds 10 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny and breezy. Highs in the lower 40s. West
winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s.
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...Clear. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in
the upper 40s.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s.
Lows in the upper 30s.
$$
Expires:202304051100;;271678
ASUS41 KBTV 051030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED APR 05 2023
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-051100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 35 19 52 N6 30.33S WCI 30 TC 2
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 33 22 63 CALM 30.36S TC 1
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 33 18 53 NE8 30.38R WCI 26 TC 1
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 34 24 67 MISG 30.34R TC 1
LYNDONVILLE* N/A 31 23 71 SW3 30.37R TC 0
MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 33 24 68 N8 30.31S WCI 26 TC 1
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 39 33 79 NW5 30.29R TC 4
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 41 39 93 CALM 30.33R TC 5
HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 34 14 44 NE8 30.36F WCI 27 TC 1
NEWPORT* CLOUDY 30 18 62 NW8 30.40R WCI 22 TC -1
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 50 27 40 E8 30.23S TC 10
ISLAND POND* N/A 30 N/A N/A CALM N/A TC -1
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 32 N/A N/A MISG N/A TC 0
LAKE EDEN* N/A 28 N/A N/A NE5 N/A WCI 23 TC -2
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 28 N/A N/A CALM N/A TC -2
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 34 21 60 N3 N/A TC 1
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 34 25 69 N18 N/A WCI 23 TC 1
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 34 19 55 N12 N/A WCI 25 TC 1
$$
Expires:No;;269103
FXUS61 KBTV 050927
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
527 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A potent early spring storm system will bring rounds of heavy
rain showers to the region, heaviest and most frequent across
northern areas during the day before expanding areawide by
tonight. While most of the region will stay above freezing,
pockets of freezing rain today will occur across portions of
northern New York north of the Route 11 corridor and east of the
Green Mountain spine tonight. Then much warmer conditions will
develop tomorrow across Vermont as a cold front passes through,
which will open the door for drier conditions for the weekend.
The dry weather will come with gusty winds on Friday and cool
conditions through Saturday, followed by a return to seasonably
warm weather thereafter.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 527 AM EDT Wednesday...Winter Weather Advisories remain
in effect for freezing rain in portions of northern New York
today and eastern Vermont tonight. While freezing rain
occurrenceis likely, especially where temperatures early this
morning have fallen below freezing, the details in terms of
timing, amounts, and location are rather difficult to pin down
and are complicated by the effects of solar heating after
dawn/before dusk. Due to advection of very dry low level air in
our northern areas on gusty north/northeast winds, dew point
depressions are large and may contribute to some of the rain
showers this morning to be mostly virga. Looking at the
unconditional probabilities of weather type NBM product, a
relatively high likelihood of freezing rain exists later this
morning across northwestern St. Lawrence County, specifically
between 10 AM and noon. This timing is coincident with rising
temperatures as southerly/southwesterly flow aloft deepens, so
it may a very short period of icing before the threat ends.
Prior to that time, precipitation chances are lower but what
does reach the ground will be more likely to freeze on elevated
surfaces with lingering subfreezing temperatures. Then late this
afternoon into the evening, chances of freezing rain across
much of Vermont from the spine of the Greens and east will
increase as wet bulb temperatures lower and low level inversion
sharpens. Greatest chances of heavier precipitation and
associated ice accumulations generally are in northeastern
Vermont tonight, but the shallow cold air will erode faster
there relative to east- central Vermont, including much of
Washington, Orange, and Windsor counties. Pockets of ice
accumulation will be possible through much of the night, and
could cause some travel issues for tomorrow morning.
Precipitation amounts look rather heavy across northern New York
and to a lesser degree, northern Vermont, through tomorrow
morning, as multiple rounds of heavy rain showers are expected.
The bulk of the rainfall will occur this afternoon and evening.
Most likely rainfall totals have increased to 1-1.5" for much
of this area, with downpours expected associated with elevated
showers and possibly thunderstorms. As seen last night in
portions of Wisconsin and Michigan, thunderstorms may occur with
temperatures near freezing at the ground, as the elevated mixed
layer will be above roughly 850 millibars level. At that
height, temperatures will be well into the 50s with deeply
saturated parcels strongly lifted. Still looking at unusually
high precipitable water for this time of year associated with
these showers, associated with a broad fetch of deep moisture
from both the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico as evident in
GOES-16 water vapor imagery. With heavier precipitation mainly
expected outside of the higher terrain where snow pack exists
and with only a short period of warming, hydrologic impacts are
expected to be minimal. However, some mainstem rivers may rise
to action stage given their current status.
With regards to winds, they will rather changeable through the
next 24 hours as northerly flow currently in place at the
surface will gradually become southerly today west of the Green
Mountains as a southwesterly low level jet strengthens.
Meanwhile the strong pressure gradient between high pressure in
southeastern Canada and the low pressure area lifting north of
Lake Superior will promote gusty easterly winds in central and
eastern Vermont. While sub- advisory level, occasional gusts
above 30 MPH and locally 40 to 45 MPH are possible near Lake
Champlain and in the foothills of the Green Mountains and
Adirondacks tonight.
Temperatures will surge to near 60 in southwestern St. Lawrence
County today, and warm well into the 60s over much of Vermont
tomorrow once the stubborn, shallow surface inversion mixes out
and temperatures aloft remain warm. Prior to that happening,
moist air and lightening winds will support areas of fog in the
morning, especially in southern and eastern Vermont. There is a
mixed signal on organized showers developing ahead of the
surface cold front, but generally not looking at much additional
rain tomorrow ahead of the front.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 403 AM EDT Wednesday...A few showers may linger across far
southern and eastern sections of VT Thursday evening, but these will
quickly come to an end as cooler and drier air spreads into the
region under advancing high pressure. Friday will be dry, with
perhaps just a few passing mountain rain/snow showers as a weak
upper shortwave scoots by. Temperatures will remain below normal for
early April, topping out in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Steepening low
level lapse rates will make for a brisk day as northwest winds
become gusty to 35 mph. This combined with the dry airmass could
lead to fire weather concerns, as min RH levels drop to below 35
percent. Winds will abate Friday night as the high slowly builds
over the Northeast CONUS. It'll be chilly given the airmass in
place; lows will range from the mid/upper teens in the Adirondacks
and Northeast Kingdom to the lower/mid 20s in the wider valleys.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 403 AM EDT Wednesday...Very quiet weather expected this weekend
and into early next week as high pressure will be slow to cross
overhead and then move to the east. While both Saturday and Sunday
will be dry, Saturday will still be a bit on the cool side with
highs only in the mid 30s to mid 40s. After another chilly night
Saturday night, we'll see the start of a warming trend on Sunday;
the latter half of the weekend will have highs reaching into the mid
40s to mid 50s. This only improves for the work week as highs should
top out in the mid 50s to mid 60s by Tuesday. Precipitation chances
for early to mid next week will be negligible, with perhaps a few
showers Monday night into to Tuesday with a warm frontal passage.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Several impacts expected to the aviation
community through the TAF period, which include potential
icing, low level wind shear/turbulence and lowering cigs/vis
toward MVFR/IFR in a few sites. Next 4-6 hours are quiet with
VFR conditions and north/northeast winds 4 to 8 knots. Clouds
lower aft 10z with MVFR conditions and light freezing rain
developing at KMSS toward 12z as NE flow increases at 10 to 20
kt, gusting to 30 kt. A period of moderate FZRA is likely on
later this morning into this afternoon with lowering ceilings
toward IFR conditions at KMSS with areas of wind
shear/turbulence associated with changing of wind direction and
speed with height. Also, a rumble of thunder is possible.
Meanwhile, ceilings lower to MVFR conditions at most other
sites by 18z with widespread rain showers, though freezing rain
is likley at KMPV/KEFK with temperatures hovering near freezing
and visibility ranging between 4-6SM in precip. Areas of wind
shear and turbulence wl prevail thru the afternoon hours as
southeast winds increase at 15 to 30 knots.
Outlook...
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely RA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT
Thursday for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>021.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
NYZ026-027-030-031-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
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