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May 2023, Week 4

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Subject:
From:
Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Sun, 28 May 2023 06:50:04 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
Parts/Attachments:
text/plain (206 lines)
Expires:202305281600;;202153
FPUS51 KBTV 280826
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
423 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023


VTZ018-281600-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
423 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023

.TODAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. West winds around 10 mph.
.TONIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. North winds around
10 mph, becoming northeast after midnight. 
.MEMORIAL DAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. East winds around
10 mph, becoming north in the afternoon. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Southeast winds
around 10 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds around
10 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...Clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs
in the lower 80s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in
the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 80s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the
upper 70s. Chance of rain 30 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. 

$$


Expires:202305281100;;206644
ASUS41 KBTV 281030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2023

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-281100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    52  47  83 VRB3      30.15F TC  11           
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     47  43  86 CALM      30.21F TC   8           
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     44  42  93 CALM      30.17F TC   7           
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     47  44  90 MISG      30.16F TC   8           
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      48  44  85 CALM      30.18F TC   9           
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      48  48  99 CALM      30.17S TC   9           
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     49  46  90 SE7       30.19F TC   9           
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     47  45  93 CALM      30.19S TC   8           
NEWPORT*       FAIR      49  45  86 SW3       30.15F TC  10           
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     46  32  58 CALM      30.19F TC   8           
ISLAND POND*     N/A     41 N/A N/A CALM        N/A  TC   5           
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     43 N/A N/A MISG        N/A  TC   6           
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     46 N/A N/A CALM        N/A  TC   8           
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     57 N/A N/A W31         N/A  TC  14           

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     57  52  82 SW8         N/A  TC  14           
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     54  50  87 S17         N/A  TC  12           
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     55  50  82 S6          N/A  TC  13           

$$


Expires:No;;199524
FXUS61 KBTV 280738
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
338 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to provide the North Country with
warm and dry weather through most of the upcoming week.
Temperatures will be well into the 80s today, with slightly
cooler readings on Monday, before much above normal values
return for mid to late week. A cold front will increase the
chances for precipitation on Friday, but otherwise a dry week 
is anticipated. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Sunday...Very quiet wx prevails as a ridge of
high pres aloft and at the sfc continues to dominate our region.
Water vapor shows strong subsidence acrs our cwa, which wl
result in sunny skies again today. Progged 925mb temps warm 
another 2 to 3C, with values in the 20-22C range, supporting 
highs 82 to 88F acrs the fa, with a few warmer valley cities 
near 90F. Based on dwpts/min rh values from Saturday, have 
utilized the 10th percentile NBM dwpts again today, which 
supports min rh values in the 22% to 30% range. Given the very 
dry airmass in place and full sunshine, expect temps to warm 
quickly this morning for any individuals planning outdoor 
activities. Tonight, sfc high pres nosing south from eastern 
Canada wl help push a weak backdoor cold frnt acrs our VT zns. 
Lows tonight range from the lower 40s to mid 50s. This boundary 
wl shift our winds to the north/northeast overnight with 
slightly cooler 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles on Monday. 
However, moisture is nonexistence with this boundary, so not 
anticipating any precip, just a wind shift with cooler values on
Monday. Progged 925mb temps btwn 14C NEK to 18C southern 
SLV/western Dacks support highs low/mid 70s NEK to l/m 80s 
southern SLV. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Sunday...Surface flow will turn southerly throughout
the night Monday while ridging strengthens overtop of the forecast
area. This will result in mostly clear skies and lows seasonably
mild in the 40s east of the Greens in the Adirondacks, 50s
elsewhere. Temperatures will continue to increase Tuesday with winds
out of the southwest under continued mostly sunny skies and mixing
up to 850-925mb. Highs will be about 10 degrees above normal in the
lower 80s, and minimum relative humidity values will be in the
30-40% range, making for a dry heat.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Sunday...Ridging continues to build into late week
with mixing potentially up to 750-700mb. Temperatures in the mid- to
upper 80s Wednesday will turn to the mid-80s to lower 90s Thursday.
This could break or tie record highs, including at the Burlington
International Airport, where the record is 90 F from 2013 and our
forecast is 91 F. Plan for unusual warmth for late May/early June;
frequent breaks, extra hydration, and checking in with heat
sensitive populations are recommended. High pressure should keep us
dry, but can't rule out a pinprick thunderstorm across higher
terrain in the afternoons. Overall, lack of moisture and forcing
will really limit any chance of precipitation we have.

Friday onward, uncertainty increases as we try to determine when the
blocked pattern breaks down. Most likely scenario at this time is
that the pattern changes at the end of the work week/start of the
weekend with a backdoor front pushing high pressure south and
providing cooler temperatures and our first real chance of any
rainfall. Ranges of possible high temperatures increase Friday
through Sunday to about 10 degrees. We're forecasting highs Friday
in the lower to mid-80s, then as cool as the 70s for the weekend.
PoPs will be in the 15-30% range Friday, and precipitation is not
expected to be widespread or long-lived, perhaps some showers and
thunderstorms along the front as it runs into dry air and is
followed by more dry air. A pretty short window for our only
expected real expected precip over the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...High pressure both aloft and at the surface
will continue to provide all our taf sites with clear skies and
light winds for the next 24 hours. VFR prevails with trrn
influenced winds this morning, becoming southwest to northwest
at 4 to 8 knots by midday, except lake breeze at PBG with
southeast winds likely. Otherwise, light trrn driven winds
redevelop tonight into Monday. 

Outlook...

Memorial Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Taber

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