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October 2002, Week 2

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Subject:
From:
Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Wed, 9 Oct 2002 06:50:02 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
Parts/Attachments:
text/plain (284 lines)
Expires:200210092000;;550235
FPUS51 KBTV 090737
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 AM EDT WED OCT 9 2002


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-092000-
CALEDONIA-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...NEWPORT...
RANDOLPH...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE
336 AM EDT WED OCT 9 2002

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15
MPH.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE UPPER 30S.
SOUTH WIND AROUND 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL MID-MORNING...THEN BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOW IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 40S.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE MID 60S.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. HIGH
IN THE MID 60S.
.COLUMBUS DAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE
MID 40S. HIGH IN THE LOWER 60S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGH IN THE UPPER
50S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 090809
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
409 AM EDT WED OCT 9 2002

A WEAK SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...DRAGGING A
DYING WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  ETA/RSM PRECIP FIELD ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
CLUSTERING AROUND THE OPERATIONAL RUNS...WITH SUCH PALTRY DYNAMICS
THAT EVEN CHANCE POPS MIGHT BE A WISH.  THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WASHES OUT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES.  SO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STEADY BUT WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A DECREASING CLOUD
TREND.  HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AN INFLUX OF THE
MARINE AIRMASS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE STRONG ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES.  THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME
DIFFICULTY IN CONVERGING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE
EJECTING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THE PRECIP WITH THIS WAVE TO
BE SHUNTED SOUTH OF OUR REGION...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE OFFSHORE.  AT THIS TIME HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A CHANCE OF PRECIP
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AFTERWARD SO
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE LATER PERIODS OF THE GOING FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.  IT STILL APPEARS THAT A MUCH STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL APPROACH AROUND THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME...AS
INDICATED IN THE EXISTING FORECAST PACKAGE.

ST. JEAN

.BTV...NONE.






FXUS61 KBTV 090033
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
833 PM EDT TUE OCT 8 2002

WL ISSUE UPDATE TO CLEAN UP ZONE HEADERS AND TWEAK TIMING OF CLDS.

SFC HI OVR WRN QUEBEC ATTM...FCST TO MOV E INTO ERN QUEBEC BY 18Z-23Z
WEDNESDAY AFTN AND EVENING. WK WRMFNT EXTDS FM WRN GRTLKS LO SE TO
THE NY/PA BORDER AS NOTED IN SFC WND FIELD.  LO WL MOV NE INTO
CANADA AS UPR LVL TROF MOVS E ACRS SRN CANADA.

WAA CLDS MOVG INTO WRN NY CONT TO ERODE IN DRY AIR ACRS ERN NY AND
VT. HI CLDS WL MOVG ACRS CNTRL NY AND CNTRL VT ATTM WITH WAA CLDS
MOVG IN AFTR MIDN.

WL ISSUE UPDATE AND WORD RMNDR OF TNGT MSTLY CLR BUT BCMG PTLY CLDY
AFTR MIDN/TWD MRNG. WL HIGHLIGHT ZONES WITH SCT OR PTCHY FROST.
TEMPS ALRDY IN THE 30S NRN NY AND ACRS NRN AND ERN VT...WITH DEW PTS
IN UPR 20S. TEMP FCST LKS GD...BUT WL MAKE IT A BIT COLDER IN
ADIRONDACKS AND NE VT...WITH LIGHT WNDS AND JUST HI CLDS.

OTRW NO CHGS TO FCST.

WORK ZONES OUT BY 845 PM.


.BTV...NONE.

SFH






FXUS61 KBTV 081828
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
228 PM EDT TUE OCT 8 2002

SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SOUTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO BEGINNING TO ERODE.  AS A
RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS INCREASING AS IT
ONCE LOOKED AS IF ENOUGH CLOUD COVER WOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT TAKES PLACE.  WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS WELL
THIS EVENING AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION...IT APPEARS FROST SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LATER
TONIGHT.  AREA IS OUT OF THE GROWING SEASON...BUT THE MILD EARLY
FALL HAS ALLOWED PLANTS AND VEGETATION TO CONTINUE THRIVING THIS
LATE IN THE YEAR.  FEEL AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD
FROST WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S
EXPECTED TONIGHT.  LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES TURN TO THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT SINCE HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE ONLY IN THE 40S
TO AROUND 50 TODAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO HAVE TEMPERATURES FALL
RAPIDLY ONCE THE SUN SETS.

POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO
THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER DURING THE DAY.
WILL HAVE TO GO WITH ADDITIONAL ZONE BREAK UPS TO CONFINE ANY THREAT
OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES.  BASED ON PRECIPITATION
THAT HAS FALLEN UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF WISCONSIN
AND MICHIGAN...WILL ADD THE QUALIFIER OF LIGHT TO THE RAINFALL.  THE
MAIN THREAT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY...LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY.

CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
REGION.  LOW LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.

GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND ON INTO THE
WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY.  NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE
NEXT THREAT OF SHOWERS COMING ON COLUMBUS DAY.

WORK ZONES IN ALBWRKCWF BY 300 PM.

EVENSON

.BTV...NONE.










   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

661
ASUS51 KBTV 090905
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
500 AM EDT WED OCT 9 2002

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-091000-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    35  31  85 N3        30.34S
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    28  27  96 CALM      30.38S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    29  28  96 CALM      30.38S
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     29  28  96 CALM      30.37R
RUTLAND        CLEAR     36  28  75 SE14      30.34R
SPRINGFIELD    MOCLDY    30  29  96 CALM      30.39R FOG
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     36  33  89 N3        30.32F
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX



                        LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
               [1]Lyndon State College Meteorology Home Page
                      12:00PM, Tuesday October 8, 2002
                    STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Jill Gilardi
       ** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**

   Tuesday: This afternoon there will be plenty of sunshine. It will feel
   cool with temperatures rising into the lower 50s and winds gusting
   from the northwest at 5-10 mph.

   Tuesday Night: Skies will be mostly clear and winds calm, which will
   be great for viewing at 7pm, the lovely crescent Moon in the
   southwest. Make sure you also take a look in the north because there
   is a chance, just like last night to see the Aurora. Bring a jacket,
   as temperatures will cool into the frosty, upper 20s to lower 30s.

   Wednesday: Clouds will increase throughout the day with a slight
   chance for a sprinkle. Breezy winds switch into the south and highs
   will rise into the low-mid 50s.

   Wednesday Night: Expect mostly cloudy skies and the chance for
   showers. Temperatures will drop into the mid-upper 30s.

                             Extended Forecast

   Thursday: Showers end during the early morning hours and skies slowly
   clear. Temperatures will warm into the upper 50s.

   Friday: Partly sunny and pleasant with highs in the upper 50s to lower
   60s.

   Saturday: Again, partly sunny and warm. Highs in the lower 60s.

                            Forecast Discussion

   A fair weather system moves over us today through this evening,
   subsiding the air. The cool northwesterly flow around the system will
   result in a cool day for the Northeast. Tomorrow it moves into the
   Canadian Maritimes as a weakening storm system in southwestern Ontario
   tracks eastward. The bulk of the rain will remain in Quebec once the
   storm system heads east, which means just scattered showers for the
   Northeast Kingdom, Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The activity
   will be light, dropping around a .10 with spotty higher amounts as you
   head northward towards the border. Dry and pleasant weather then
   settles in through the rest of the afternoon on Thursday and into the
   weekend. Conditions look good on Saturday when the Mens Cross Country
   team competes in the Lyndon State College Invitational.

References

   1. http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/

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