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May 2020, Week 5

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Subject:
From:
Wesley Alan Wright <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Sat, 30 May 2020 06:50:03 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
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Expires:202005302000;;982028
FPUS51 KBTV 301016
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
612 AM EDT Sat May 30 2020


VTZ006-302000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
612 AM EDT Sat May 30 2020

.TODAY...Partly sunny. A chance of showers this morning. Not as
warm with highs around 70. West winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up
to 30 mph, diminishing to around 10 mph this afternoon. Chance of
rain 30 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight, then becoming mostly
cloudy. A 50 percent chance of rain showers. Lows in the lower
40s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. Northwest winds
10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. West winds
10 to 15 mph. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. Northwest winds
10 to 15 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 60s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows around 50. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the lower 70s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. 

$$


Expires:202005301100;;982489
ASUS41 KBTV 301030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-301100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    65  56  72 SW9       29.77R                  
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    64  56  75 SW12G18   29.81R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     64  61  90 MISG      29.73R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    63  60  90 SE8       29.77R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      60  55  84 S6        29.81R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    65  59  81 W8G18     29.83R                  
SPRINGFIELD    MOCLDY    65  59  81 S7        29.79S                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    62  56  79 W8G21     29.79R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    62  60  92 S3        29.75R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    61  54  77 SW9       29.88R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     63 N/A N/A W13         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     61 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     61 N/A N/A SW7         N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     54 N/A N/A W33G47      N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     63  55  77 W16G30      N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     63  55  77 W20G26      N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;974768
FXUS61 KBTV 300733
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
333 AM EDT Sat May 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers gradually dissipate this morning with
noticeably cooler temperatures. Most places will reach the upper
60s to mid 70s this afternoon. An additional passing cold front
later today will bring the return of near normal to slightly 
below normal temperatures Sunday and through the first half of 
next week. By mid week, temperatures will return to mid 70s and 
bring a chance of showers to the North Country. Dry, pleasant 
weather looks to be in store for the end of the week, with a 
return to normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 331 AM EDT Saturday...A cold front is currently shifting
eastwards across Northern New York. A few sprinkles are being
reported near the boundary, like at Potsdam and Massena with 
and a few shallow showers east of the feature as well. At this 
point, only seeing sporadic hundredths across the state from 
various sites. By early morning, we should have partly to mostly
cloudy skies with temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s 
with dewpoints also falling into the 50s. It should feel 
refreshing after the last several days. Forecast highs in the 
upper 60s to middle 70s will be perfect for a late spring day.

During the evening hours, a secondary front will push across the
state with sufficient moisture, marginal instability, and synoptic
scale forcing for ascent provided by an upper jet and frontogenesis
along a sharp density boundary. Scattered showers should develop
over northern New York mid-afternoon and gradually shift east into
Vermont late in the evening and wrapping up shortly after midnight.
It could drop a few hundredths across the Champlain and Connecticut
River Valley with a tenth to a quarter inch over high terrain and
the Northern St. Lawrence Valley. After this secondary front
crosses, efficient cold air advection in northwest flow should send
the valleys into the 40s and higher elevations in the mid 30s.
Portions of the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks will be watched
for potential frost, but steady northwest winds will be an
inhibiting factor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 331 AM EDT Saturday...A northern stream mid-level trough
crossing nrn NY and VT from WNW- ESE will result in an increase in
cloud cover and a slight chance of showers during Sunday night, and
a continuation of 20-30% PoPs over central and eastern VT on Monday.
Where rainfall does occur, limited moisture availability (PW values
0.4 to 0.5") will generally keep rainfall amts below 0.10".
Associated 850mb thermal trough with temps -2C to -3C will result in
a relatively cool period of temperatures across the North Country.
Looking at lows Sunday night generally in the mid-upper 30s, and
locally in the lower 40s across the Champlain Valley. Likewise,
highs on Monday are only expected in the low-mid 60s, and locally in
the upper 50s across the nrn Adirondacks. These forecast readings
are around 10deg below the 30-year climo avg for the 1st of 
June. Should see light W-SW winds Sunday night becoming nwly at 
10-15 mph for the daylight hrs Monday with trough passage.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 331 AM EDT Saturday...No significant precipitation systems are
expected during the long-term forecast period. It continues to 
appear that the best chance for precipitation (PoPs 40-50%) will
occur with a NW-SE oriented warm front late Tuesday into 
Tuesday night. Based on both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF, the best 
frontal forcing sets up south and west of our forecast area, 
with prospects for just light precipitation amts of up to a 
tenth to quarter inch across the Adirondacks and s- central VT. 
Lighter amts would be expected further north and east based on 
current indications. May see additional embedded shortwave 
troughs in nwly mid-level flow bring additional isold/sct -SHRA 
to our region Wednesday and Thursday, though timing details 
remain uncertain. Kept PoPs a bit lower (around 30%). In term of
temperatures, will generally see a moderating trend, with highs
65- 70F in valley locations on Tuesday, and generally in the 
70s (near climo mean for early June) for the Wed-Fri period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Scattered showers continue through about
09Z as a cold front pushes across our region. Currently a mix 
of VFR and MVFR as ceilings hover around 1500ft-3500ft agl with 
local IFR at SLK possible around 08Z to 11Z. Winds ahead of the 
front are out of the southwest at 7 to 14 knots with occasional 
gusts to 20 knots. Winds become more westerly beyond 10Z and 
clouds will lift and scatter. After 21Z, a second cold front 
will begin to push southeastward, again causing a southwest wind
shift and VCSH. This front should clear the region around 03Z-
05Z and again shift winds to the west to west-northwest and
bring ceilings down to 2500-4500ft agl with speeds diminishing
to around 5 knots.


Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Haynes

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