Expires:202209042000;;207170
FPUS51 KBTV 040746
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
343 AM EDT Sun Sep 4 2022
VTZ018-042000-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
343 AM EDT Sun Sep 4 2022
.TODAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight
chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 60s. Light and variable
winds, becoming northwest around 10 mph this afternoon. Chance of
rain 30 percent.
.TONIGHT...Cloudy. A chance of showers after midnight. Lows in
the mid 50s. North winds around 10 mph until midnight, becoming
light and variable. Chance of rain 40 percent.
.LABOR DAY...Cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning, then
showers likely in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 60s. Light and
variable winds. Chance of rain 60 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 50s. Light and
variable winds. Chance of rain 60 percent.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 60s. Light and variable winds.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Highs in the
lower 70s. Lows in the mid 50s.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
$$
Expires:202209041100;;214352
ASUS41 KBTV 041030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN SEP 04 2022
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-041100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 68 62 81 CALM 30.11R
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 61 56 83 CALM 30.17R
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 62 59 90 CALM 30.13R
LYNDONVILLE* N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG N/A
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 62 62 98 CALM 30.13R
RUTLAND* PTCLDY 58 58 100 SE5 30.14S
SPRINGFIELD FOG 55 54 96 CALM 30.16R VSB 1/4
HIGHGATE* RAIN 62 61 96 N7 30.14R
NEWPORT* CLOUDY 63 60 91 CALM 30.14S
BENNINGTON MOCLDY 58 58 100 CALM 30.14S FOG
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 55 N/A N/A MISG N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 72 66 83 N5 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 70 64 83 W6 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 68 63 83 SW7 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;208481
FXUS61 KBTV 040809
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
409 AM EDT Sun Sep 4 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front is pushing through the North Country early this morning
bringing chances of showers and very isolated thunderstorms. Clouds,
northerly flow, and showers will linger behind the front with
temperatures remaining cool across northern New York and the
northern half of Vermont; southern Vermont will warm into the
mid/upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Another low pressure will move
along the boundary for Monday bringing more chances of rain mainly
from the Adirondacks and across central to southern Vermont. Dry
conditions and a warming trend is expected behind this wave for the
remainder of the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...A cold front is pushing through
northern New York and Vermont this morning bringing chances of
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Radar has been much more
broken in regards to returns with a much more isolated nature to
the showers as they move into a resilient area of ridging and
as the parent feature rapidly tracks well northeast of the North
Country. Stretching along the boundary has been far more
pronounced resulting in less latitudinal lift overnight. Ample
cloud cover is advecting southward this morning behind the front
with dense low level moisture. A plausible outcome could be for
areas of drizzle to occur today from central Vermont northward.
The boundary coupled with heating across southern Vermont will
likely be sufficient to produce enough of a trigger for
convection. Otherwise, there will still be a sharp thermal
gradient with northern locations in the 60s today and southern
Vermont in the mid/upper 70s to around 80 degrees.
Ridging should rebound quickly behind this boundary tonight as
suggested by forecast 925mb heights among most model suites. As
such, model trends for a weaker boundary pushing farther south and a
resurgence of ridging suggests drier conditions across northern New
York and northern Vermont than previous runs favored. Therefore,
backed off on precipitation chances for Monday as a low pressure
moves along the boundary. Best chances for rain will be limited more
towards southern Vermont, but a secondary deformation type band
could form from the Adirondacks through northeastern Vermont. Speed
of the low and current expected trajectory favor lower QPF amounts
as well; lowered rain totals by about 50% for central and northern
Vermont/New York. Could still see around half an inch for southern
Rutland/Windsor counties with a quick taper for areas
northward. After the light rainfall this morning, the Saint
Lawrence Valley will likely see no precipitation and possibly
some clearing of skies for Monday. Kept isolated thunderstorm
chances, but most likely will see forcing closer to the low
circulation along southern Vermont.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...Compared to yesterday, it looks like
forecast trends are favoring a faster northern stream trough,
and this will dry us out more quickly as a result with lesser
rainfall totals expected. There could be some activity
meandering around southern Vermont Tuesday afternoon, but most
of the region should be drying out as a strong 1026mb surface
high pressure builds centered over Montreal. With a faster
transition back to dry weather, high temperatures should be a
bit warmer for Tuesday, with afternoon highs mainly in the 70s,
with cooler temperatures east of the Greens while we remain
under easterly flow.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...The forecast is fairly dry in the
extended forecast. The reason for this is a large scale slowing
of the flow across the US as an anomalous upper high develops
over the Intermountain West. To its south, an upper low and a
future eastern Pacific tropical cyclone will get trapped to its
south. The overall impact of this will be shutting down any
connection to moisture from the Gulf of Mexico or from the
Atlantic. Initially, an upper ridge and gradually decaying
surface high will be in place, keeping conditions dry through
the work week and steadily warming towards the mid 80s for
afternoon highs. By about Saturday, a longwave trough will begin
to carve itself out to the east of the anomalous high
positioned in the western US, which will send a cold front our
direction towards the end of the weekend. At this time, the
front appears fairly diffuse, with the surface low likely
tracking well to our north, but perhaps a surface low can
develop along the feature. Perhaps in time, we'll see whether
the front may be capable of dragging a pocket of higher mid-
level lapse rates in our direction, but that's about the best
shot rain. There's not much consistency yet to the timing due to
how the future Pacific cyclone will affect the long term
forecast pattern across the US. It's possible the front, and
thus any rain, does not pass through until the following Monday.
For now, have some slight chance to low end chance (indicating
20 to 30 PoPs) of rain for Saturday afternoon into Sunday, but
it's also entirely possible that we're dry until the following
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Ahead of an approaching cold front VFR
conditions will generally persist through the overnight hours
with some MVFR developing after midnight at KMSS and KSLK. In
addition, a brief window of IFR is possible at KMSS in TSRA from
02-04Z. After 10Z as the front drops into the region ceilings
will lower to MVFR area-wide through the morning with locally
IFR at KSLK. Scattered showers and perhaps some isolated thunder
will be around through the day with ceilings only beginning to
lift post-frontal passage towards 00Z. Winds through the period
will be generally below 8kts and come from the SSW through
midnight, then shifting to the NNW by daybreak.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Labor Day: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Boyd
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