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March 2016, Week 3

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Subject:
From:
"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Wed, 16 Mar 2016 06:50:01 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
Parts/Attachments:
text/plain (203 lines)
Expires:201603162000;;151860
FPUS51 KBTV 160827
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
425 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016


VTZ006-162000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
425 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016

.TODAY...CLOUDY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 40. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF
RAIN 90 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. 

$$


Expires:201603161100;;156529
ASUS41 KBTV 161030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-161100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    38  35  89 NW10      29.90R FOG     WCI  31  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    38  37  97 CALM      29.89R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    36  35  96 CALM      29.89R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     37  34  89 MISG      29.85R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   MOCLDY    37  37  97 CALM      29.87R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    DRIZZLE   40  40 100 NW3       29.88R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    36  30  80 SE3       29.86S                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       34  34 100 CALM      29.84S VSB 1/2          
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    36  35  99 CALM      29.92R FOG              
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    36  35  95 N6        29.89R WCI  31          
BENNINGTON     FAIR      38  36  92 CALM      29.83R                  
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     37 N/A N/A W2          N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     37  37 100 N10         N/A  WCI  30          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     39  39 100 N16         N/A  WCI  30          

$$


Expires:No;;152412
FXUS61 KBTV 160834
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
434 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CREATES A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
FOLLOWED BY SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
MOVE IN FOR THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING...RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY
TO SOME SUNSHINE LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S. WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EVER SO
SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY AND THUS DYNAMIC SUPPORT/PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL NOT INCREASE UNTIL TONIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THUS
GOING FORECAST OF LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOKS REAL GOOD. SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION WILL
EXIST...THUS THE RAIN SHOULD END QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
BY MIDNIGHT AND ACROSS VERMONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 0.20-0.40 INCH
RANGE. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 50S
AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. MODELS SHOW
SHOWALTERS GO NEGATIVE THU AFTERNOON AND SOME MINOR CAPE SO HAVE
CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTERS MENTION OF THUNDER. ON
THURSDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND
SHUTS DOWN ANY CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE. CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUES ON FRIDAY WITH FRONT DRAPED JUST TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY
MORNING AND NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL
ACTUALLY BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WE HAVE HAD IN A WHILE WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING AND TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT ABOVE
FREEZING AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEARLY BE A REPEAT OF FRIDAY
NIGHT. ON SUNDAY SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVES TOWARD THE AREA AND REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS
STILL INDICATING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL OUT TO
SEA AND NOT IMPACT OUR REGION. FROM SUNDAY ONWARD TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST
THROUGH ABOUT 14Z ALONG WITH SOME FOG THAT WILL TAKE VFR
VISIBILITIES DOWN INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES AS WELL. VFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 23Z BEFORE AN
AREA OF RAIN MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 23Z AND THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO LOWER BACK INTO THE MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL EXIST THROUGH AT
LEAST 12Z BEFORE BECOMING NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS...BUT GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHEAST AT KMSS...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODIC
SHOWERY EPISODES EXPECTED AS ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...TRENDING VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/JMG

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