Expires:201808022000;;419202
FPUS51 KBTV 020703
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
300 AM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018
VTZ006-022000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
300 AM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018
.TODAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers this morning.
Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of
rain 20 percent.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers until
midnight, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers after
midnight. Lows in the mid 60s. Light and variable winds. Chance of
rain 50 percent.
.FRIDAY...Cloudy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of
thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in
the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Light and variable winds.
Chance of rain 70 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows in the mid 60s. Light and
variable winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the lower 80s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain
50 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 60s.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the
upper 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
$$
Expires:201808021100;;427590
ASUS41 KBTV 021030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU AUG 02 2018
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-021100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON MOCLDY 74 69 85 S9 29.94S
MONTPELIER MOCLDY 71 66 84 CALM 30.03R
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 69 69 100 CALM 29.97S
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 71 69 93 MISG 29.97R
LYNDONVILLE* CLOUDY 69 68 96 SE3 30.01S
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 71 68 91 CALM 29.99R
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 74 69 85 VRB3 30.02R
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 69 69 100 CALM 30.02R
HIGHGATE* FAIR 72 70 95 S5 29.94R
NEWPORT* CLOUDY 69 67 95 S5 29.97F
BENNINGTON MOCLDY 72 69 90 S5 30.02F
ISLAND POND* N/A 70 N/A N/A SW6 N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 68 N/A N/A MISG N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 70 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 61 N/A N/A SW22 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 73 72 94 S9G15 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 73 72 94 S15 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 73 72 94 S5 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;421179
FXUS61 KBTV 020743
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
343 AM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and humid summertime pattern will persist through the
middle of next week as strong Bermuda high pressure maintains a
moist southerly flow across the region. The highest threat of
showers and storms will occur Friday afternoon into Friday night
when the threat of locally heavy rainfall will exist in
portions of the southern Champlain Valley into central and
southern Vermont.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 332 AM EDT Thursday...Another warm and humid morning is
unfolding as moist south to southwesterly flow remains in place
on the western side of deep subtropical high pressure anchored
across the western Atlantic. A few/scattered showers embedded
within this flow continue to traverse central and northern
counties as of 300 am, though only light precipitation is
generally associated with this activity. With morning model data
maintaining broad continuity with prior solutions I've
generally offered a persistence forecast for today. This
suggests variably cloudy skies and any lingering light showers
this morning to trend partly sunny and mainly dry by this
afternoon as the forecast area remains under a weakly forced
synoptic pattern with poor lapse rates and little to no
instability. There could be a few/isolated light showers across
the higher terrain, though most spots should stay dry. High
temperatures to tick up just a tad from yesterdays values,
mainly ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s.
By this evening into tonight a more pronounced moisture plume pushes
into our central and southern VT counties with a broad increase in
shower coverage as decaying Mid-Atlantic convection rides
northeastward through time. PoPs will increase into the likely range
in these areas, especially along and south of a Ticonderoga, NY to
Barnet, VT line with areas further north staying considerably drier.
Similar to today, any thunder threat appears minimal at this time.
Lows to hold on the mild side, ranging mainly through the 60s.
The forecast then trends more interesting as we progress into
Friday. We continue to monitor a subtle, though important PV feature
near Bermuda this morning which is trundling slowly westward to the
south of the mean ridge axis. This feature will round the western
portions of the ridge later tonight into Friday before riding up
along the northeastern seaboard by Friday night. Interaction of this
feature with our extant deep and moist airmass should be sufficient
to initiate an area of moderate to locally heavy rainfall across the
northern Mid-Atlantic into portions of NY and central/northern New
England by later in the day. The challenge is where the most focused
bands of heavier rainfall will eventually set up. At this time, it
appears consensus is highest from northeast PA into the Hudson
Valley of NY into portions of central and southern VT. As such,
we've introduced the potential for heavy rainfall across the
southern Champlain Valley and central/southern VT by Friday
afternoon. This coincides with current excessive rainfall slight
risk area from WPC. Time will tell how this pans out, but if future
model runs maintain consistency a Flash Flood Watch may be needed
for this time frame later today. High temperatures will trend
slightly cooler with expected higher coverage of clouds - mainly mid
70s to lower 80s. It will remain quite humid however as PWATs hover
in the 1.75 to 2.1 inch range and surface dewpoints range through
the 60s to near 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 337 AM EDT Thursday...The prognosis for Friday night will
be continued rainfall, heavy at times, across portions of the
North Country. The high PV anomaly currently over 30N 70W ends
up riding along the western side of the Bermuda high and merges
with a deep moisture plum originating over the Gulf of Mexico on
Friday. By Friday evening, a meso low looks to from at the
surface tracking towards the north east and will generate a
swath of heavy rainfall across central Vermont.
Guidance has dialed in the signal with 1.8"+ PWATs, high
moisture convergence and large warm cloud depths. This all
points to highly efficient rain showers and the potential for
high rainfall rates. We are growing in concern for the potential
for flash flooding to occur across portions of central and
southern Vermont. With that area already primed with 3-5 inches
of rainfall in the last 8-10 days, we'll have to pay close
attention to rainfall amounts Friday evening into Saturday
morning. Nearly all the CAM models are indicating the potential
for an axis of 2-3 inches basin wide, and the GEFS ensemble
mean has a 24 hour total in the same ball park. So we've
upgraded the wording of the weather grids to indicate the
potential for heavy rainfall, indicated in the HWO the
potential, and have included a hydro discussion below in the
AFD.
Temps will be slightly cooler with the rain and cloud cover.
Expect highs on Saturday in the lower 80s with lows Friday night
in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 337 AM EDT Thursday...The rest of the weekend is trending
drier as high pressure builds in and we see a return of higher
temperatures. We trended the temps slightly lower for the
Sunday-Tuesday time period as the 925mb temps are forecast to be
a few degrees cooler now relative to the previous couple of
model cycles but we'll still have the potential to make a run
at another heat wave. Forecast highs are in the upper 80s to
near 90 each of the days with Monday looking like the hottest
day.
As mentioned before we should be relatively dry with mid level
ridging building in to end the weekend. The ridge passes through
the region Monday afternoon and we'll see our next chance for
showers generally on Tuesday as an upper level shortwave trough
tracks through the Great Lakes region. The "front" will be
mainly a differing moisture airmass as the temps hold fairly
steady. However the moisture will be quite a bit drier behind
the front heading into Wednesday and so the temps should feel
more comfortable through middle of the week with highs in the
80s but relative humidities in the 50% range during the day.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...A mixture of VFR/MVFR/IFR cigs and light
winds through 12Z, then VFR area wide thereafter. Most
prevalent IFR at KMPV and MVFR at KSLK in lower stratus with
other terminals VFR through 12Z. Scattered light showers to
also affect eastern terminals through 10Z, otherwise mainly a
precipitation free forecast as we progress into the daylight
hours. After 12Z winds south/southwesterly from 5-10 kts,
occasionally gusty into the 15-20 kt range at selected terminals
by this afternoon. SCT/BKN VFR cigs to generally range in the
060-150 AGL range from 14Z onward through the end of the
forecast cycle.
Outlook...
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is growing concern for potential flash flooding Friday
afternoon through Saturday morning across central and southern
Vermont due to wet antecedent conditions and the potential for
heavy rainfall. Portions of southern and central Vermont have
seen upwards of 2-5 inches of rainfall over the last week and
that has caused flash flood guidance to drop into the 1.5 to 2
inch range for 3 hour rainfall totals. The combination of high
moisture convergence, abnormally high precipitable water values,
and warm cloud depths of greater than 13,000 feet will lead to
highly efficient warm cloud processes. We currently anticipate a
swath of heavy rainfall to occur somewhere across central and
southern Vermont with rainfall totals of up to 2-3 inches
possible for basin averages. The flow aloft is expected to be
unidirectional and parallel to the surface boundary and thus
we're looking at the potential for several rounds of training
storms. So we will likely see some locally higher precip totals
across the region so with relatively low flash flood guidance
values across central and southern Vermont we'll need to monitor
any potential training cells for flash flooding.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...JMG
HYDROLOGY...Deal
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